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2020-03-27 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
BS COVID-19 fatality model revised downward by Imperial College Wizard - By 25x!
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Posted by Lex 2020-03-27 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11130 views ]  Top

#1 Oops.
So sorry about 3 million unemployed.
Never mind.
Posted by Lex 2020-03-27 00:40||   2020-03-27 00:40|| Front Page Top

#2 I thought we wanted scientists to adjust their models when they get more data.
Posted by Rob Crawford 2020-03-27 01:27||   2020-03-27 01:27|| Front Page Top

#3 Fitting the past 5 days data to a simple model projects all Americans will have gotten it and 5 million died from it by the end of April. Pick a different window, get a different projection.
Posted by Glenmore 2020-03-27 01:47||   2020-03-27 01:47|| Front Page Top

#4 #2,#3 They all using SEIR model [1] (ripoff from Lotka–Volterra [2]), which is manifestly unrealistic.
At the very least:
Infection rate should be Beddington - DeAngelis [3].
And death rate should be density dependent - to account for limited medical resources.

1. https://jsxgraph.uni-bayreuth.de/wiki/index.php/Epidemiology:_The_SEIR_model
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka%E2%80%93Volterra_equations
3. https://www.hindawi.com/journals/jmath/2013/826857/ Sorry, no wiki article
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 04:49||   2020-03-27 04:49|| Front Page Top

#5 ^Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesn't Match The Doomsday Media Predictions
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 05:16||   2020-03-27 05:16|| Front Page Top

#6 But never accuse these dipshits of inciting a widespread panic.
Posted by Raj 2020-03-27 06:20||   2020-03-27 06:20|| Front Page Top

#7 Appears the problem is urban. NYC, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle to name a few highly infected population centers.

The loss of democratic voting bases is obviously media and news worthy.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-27 06:51||   2020-03-27 06:51|| Front Page Top

#8 ^Can't they keep voting D even after they're dead?
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 06:55||   2020-03-27 06:55|| Front Page Top

#9 Then they will spreading their voting habits to suburbia as they flee over density areas at risk of disease.
Posted by Bright Pebbles 2020-03-27 07:32||   2020-03-27 07:32|| Front Page Top

#10 As I understand it from a less histrionic article, the original model included several projections based on what was predicted to happen given certain conditions/actions. The doomsday projection was if nothing was done to stop the spread. The revised projection is based on actual actions taken and is, of course, much lower. It's called adjusting for the data, Federalist.
Posted by Mercutio 2020-03-27 07:35||   2020-03-27 07:35|| Front Page Top

#11 Appears the problem is urban. NYC, Chicago, Los Angeles, Seattle to name a few highly infected population centers.

So how come the 'homeless' are not dropping like flies? See - the dog that didn't bark
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-03-27 07:51||   2020-03-27 07:51|| Front Page Top

#12 ^Clinical trials with Meth?
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-03-27 07:52||   2020-03-27 07:52|| Front Page Top

#13 /\ Tough bastids? Already developed immunity? Will die from overdose prior to reaching COVID-19 age, or "pre-existing" condition age range?

I dunno. Good point. Something that should be studied.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-27 07:58||   2020-03-27 07:58|| Front Page Top

#14 P2k ~ Perhaps you have stumbled onto something.

The gov't cure is everyone becomes homeless, jobless, addicted to drugs, and lives on the street.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-27 08:00||   2020-03-27 08:00|| Front Page Top

#15 Homelessness is the ultimate social distancing. Everyone avoids them!
Posted by Airandee 2020-03-27 08:03||   2020-03-27 08:03|| Front Page Top

#16 #2 I thought we wanted scientists to adjust their models when they get more data

Some problems with the above: first, the inherent problems with the data inputs were well known when Neil Ferguson applied them in his model. For example, here's just one data problem of many, as noted recently by John Lee, a recently retired professor of pathology and former NHS consultant pathologist in the UK's Spectator:

There is a big difference between COVID-19 causing death, and COVID-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making COVID-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.

And as grom pointed out, this particular model was a bad choice.

Another problem is seen in the use of the plural: "scientists."

Reports are that this extreme, doomsday forecast was the model relied upon by our elected leaders. Which other models were considered?

Did anyone consider the red flags raised by leading epidemiologists like Dr. John Ioannidis of Stanford?
Posted by Lex 2020-03-27 08:06||   2020-03-27 08:06|| Front Page Top

#17 There's a daily growth rate that is manageable, and one that is not.

Unfortunately we don't know what the REAL growth rate is right now. Intense testing currently jacks up the numbers (and such the growth rate).

But if we assume that the number of infected is a lot higher, the death rate would drop. The virus is probaly ravaging Germany, France or the UK in equal percentages. But Germany has done more testing, therefore shows higher numbers and a death rate of currently 0.6%

Of course it remains to be seen how many deaths were actually caused by COVID-19. We will only know next year.

But German hospitals do expect a troublesome situation in 2 or 3 weeks. A friend of mine needs an operation and was told: Come right NOW while we still have capacities.

Unfortunately the Rumsfeld "unknown unknowns" apply here. The situation COULD be better than feared, but it could also be worse. Especially if we don't apply radical measures.
Posted by European Conservative 2020-03-27 08:20||   2020-03-27 08:20|| Front Page Top

#18 Ref #17: A friend of mine needs an operation....

Go ahead EC, take your doctor's advice and get that vasectomy reversal surgery. You own to the next generation of Rantburg viewers.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-03-27 08:24||   2020-03-27 08:24|| Front Page Top

#19 My first laugh of the day.
Posted by Classical_Liberal 2020-03-27 10:15||   2020-03-27 10:15|| Front Page Top

#20 That's a requirement, #8 grom. In fact, they'll vote 3 times per election. >:-(
Posted by Barbara 2020-03-27 10:51||   2020-03-27 10:51|| Front Page Top

#21 #11 So how come the 'homeless' are not dropping like flies? See - the dog that didn't bark

The virus spreads person to person along networks. It was brought into the country by international travelers. How many jet setters hang out with street bums? Longer social network distance = later to get infected.
Posted by Nero 2020-03-27 11:24||   2020-03-27 11:24|| Front Page Top

#22 The bridge between the two is the sex industry.

And I think that is the real concern there, be a bit unsightly if the sex and drug culture took a huge hit on account of their lifesyle.

The barometer, if you will, will be the entertainment industry.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-03-27 12:21||   2020-03-27 12:21|| Front Page Top

#23 ...Charlie Sheen to the courtesy phone.
Posted by Procopius2k 2020-03-27 14:35||   2020-03-27 14:35|| Front Page Top

#24 He needs to go back to modeling for global warming
Posted by Regular joe 2020-03-27 15:02||   2020-03-27 15:02|| Front Page Top

#25 All those hollywood and NYC media pervs, and Andrew Gillum for another.
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-03-27 15:53||   2020-03-27 15:53|| Front Page Top

#26 Latest COV-19 figures reported:

Tennessee cases(1203) deaths (6) Rate(0.5%)
U.S. cases (100,390) deaths(1,543) Rate(1.5%)
World cases(587,958) deaths (26,909) rate (4.6%)

Rates are case fatality rates.
If one were to calculate the death rate for COVID-19 over the entire population of the U.S., the death rate would be very low.
Posted by JohnQC 2020-03-27 18:41||   2020-03-27 18:41|| Front Page Top

#27 *as a side, I did a search for Mr. Gillum, poorly, so only one article popped up. It was about his bi-lifestyle and how he was dating a male lobbyist.

The article was from 2018. The picture used is the now infamous picture of him on the boat with the 'escort'.

So here is your well connected person, engaging in risky behavior which includes pipe smoking (stop laughing) with poor judgement and impulse control. Even if they were thinking about such things, one pipe share or kiss and there it is. Now kid jiggalo, he goes where the money is, and also to his personal lovers.

I laugh and point at all the NY buttlickers, yet can't but wonder if it was a call for the escorts to the stars to cease clientelle and only lick the buttholes of those they know.

Story seems awful familiar...
Posted by swksvolFF 2020-03-27 19:02||   2020-03-27 19:02|| Front Page Top

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