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2020-12-09 Home Front: Politix

EXPERT: The Odds of Biden Overcoming Trump's Lead in the Four Swing States Was 'Less Than One in a Quadrillion'

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Posted by Besoeker 2020-12-09 03:31|| || Front Page|| [6 views ] Top

#1 Whatever she says, put me down as concurring.

Posted by Besoeker 2020-12-09 03:38|| 2020-12-09 03:38|| Front Page Top

#2 The Uniparty is betting that among 70 million Trump supporters not more than a tiny minority can understand statistical reasoning. They assume that we're as ignorant and math-challenged as they are. Bad assumption.

Even a back of the envelope calculation with publicly-available data for election results since 1996 would show that the conditional probability for Biden actually winning Pennsylvania, when he lost Ohio by 8 points, is about one in a thousand.

The typical gap between OH and PA is about 5 points; the standard error of this mean value is about 0.8. So what Biden and his tools are claiming -- a 9-point gap between the actual OH result (Trump, +8) and their claimed PA result (Trump, -1) -- would represent about a six sigma difference.

That's roughly equal to the probability that Hunter Biden actually is, as his Pop said, "the most brilliant man I know."

How long do these morons expect to get away with such stupidity?

Posted by Groluger Brown2356 2020-12-09 05:46|| 2020-12-09 05:46|| Front Page Top

#3 Math be rayciss

Posted by Gleng Slineque3279 2020-12-09 11:56|| 2020-12-09 11:56|| Front Page Top

#4 less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000."

So, it could have happened.

Posted by Matt 2020-12-09 17:24|| 2020-12-09 17:24|| Front Page Top

#5 Yes, just before the heat death of the universe.

Posted by Ulavirong Omeager2818 2020-12-09 17:27|| 2020-12-09 17:27|| Front Page Top

23:58 Zenobia whatever
23:53 Zenobia whatever
23:41 Clem
23:24 746
23:23 Clem
23:02 Seeking Cure For Ignorance
23:00 Clem
22:54 Blackbeard Barnsmell6454
22:45 Zenobia whatever
22:38 Zenobia whatever
22:37 Seeking Cure For Ignorance
22:22 Pheating Whinemble8269
22:16 Ulavirong Omeager2818
22:09 Ulavirong Omeager2818
21:35 Beldar Thrineger7611
21:32 USN, Ret.
21:28 USN, Ret.
21:20 Clem
21:16 Clem
21:11 Clem
21:09 Besoeker
21:05 Dron66046
21:04 Dron66046
20:54 Rex Mundi