Article

2022-03-23 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

ANDREW MILBURN: 'They own the long clock'‐How the Russian military is starting to adapt in Ukraine

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Posted by Gleamble Clith6486 2022-03-23 07:10|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 Overconfidence may obscure for the Ukrainians one salient fact about this conflict: Time is not on their side. They have fought a skillful and determined defense, but have also had the advantage of home turf, interior lines and the inherent superiority enjoyed by a defender with well-prepared positions, cutting-edge weapons and clear fields of fire. The question now is whether they can pivot to the offense, with its requirement for more comprehensive planning, faster than the Russians can adapt. If not, a prolonged conflict seems likely, and in a war of attrition, the Russians — with a military four times that of Ukraine — will inevitably have the upper hand.

“They own the long clock,” a senior Ukrainian officer recently admitted. “We are calculating time not in weeks or days – but in lives.”

Posted by Clavirt Scourge of the Lichtensteiners2105 2022-03-23 16:58|| 2022-03-23 16:58|| Front Page Top

#2 The Russians are already adapting, and by doing so are narrowing the Ukrainians’ tactical edge. The one-sided culling of Russian armored columns that characterized the opening days of the war, and kept YouTube subscribers around the world happy, are a thing of the past. The Russians now lead their formations with electronic attack, drones, lasers and good-old-fashioned reconnaissance by fire.

They are using cruise missiles and saboteur teams to target logistics routes, manufacturing plants, and training bases in western Ukraine. Realizing that the Ukrainians lack thermal sights for their stinger missile launchers, the Russians have switched all air operations to after dark. It may be for this same reason that Russian cruise missile strikes in western and southern Ukraine have also been at nighttime.

Ukrainian soldiers are deeply respectful of Russian artillery, an asset that the Russians are using more frequently to compensate for their infantry’s deficiencies. Several snipers I spoke with recently agreed that the Russians’ indirect fire capability was the most concerning — a result of sheer reckless mass rather than technical skill. They told some hair-raising stories to illustrate their point, and one amusing one: Ukrainian soldiers defending Kyiv commute to the battle in their own vehicles. After a recent three-day insertion, the sniper teams returned to their extraction site to find their cars all flattened by Russian artillery – a contingency apparently not covered by their insurance plans.

Posted by Clavirt Scourge of the Lichtensteiners2105 2022-03-23 17:02|| 2022-03-23 17:02|| Front Page Top

#3 the Russian artillery units are easier to hit and kill than tanks, especially if there is no or minimal infantry perimeter

Ukraine has knocked out several of artillery units and there are videos of the wreckage.

I obviously don't know the status of the Ukraine's munitions or how many capable units they have but the fact is that this Russian 'adaption' may be thwarted.

Posted by Lord Garth 2022-03-23 17:52|| 2022-03-23 17:52|| Front Page Top

#4 Putin advisor flees Russia.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-03-23 17:54|| 2022-03-23 17:54|| Front Page Top

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