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2022-06-27 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Prof. John Mearsheimer's 2014 Ukraine Crystal Ball
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Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-27 01:50|| || Front Page|| [11127 views ]  Top

#1 Was Mearsheimer a lone voice in the forest, or were there others of a like mind ?

I don't suppose anyone has seen any updates on the very briefing popular news topic of Ukie bio-labs ?
Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-27 02:00||   2022-06-27 02:00|| Front Page Top

#2 Was Mearsheimer a lone voice in the forest, or were there others of a like mind ?
đŸ˜‚

There were SCORES of other top Russia experts, diplomats, scholars, CIA officials, military strategy experts who said the same thing going all the way back to Clinton's regime.

George Kennan in 1998; also around that time:
Edward Luttwak
Harvard Historian Richard Pipes
Ambassador Jack Matlock
Paul Nitze
Princeton Historian Stephen F. Cohen
Henry Kissinger
Current CIA Chief and then-Ambassador to Russia, Bill Burns, in his famous memo to Condi Rice in 2008
Senators Bill Bradley and Sam Nunn
Columbia Political Scientists Seweryn Bialer, Robert Jervis, Bob Legvold and Jack Snyder
German Foreign Policy expert Josef Joffe
Former CIA Russia Desk lead Ray McGovern

This was a train wreck that has been in motion for the vet a quarter century. So painfully obvious to every single American expert on Russia, and yet ignored by every one of the last five administrations.

Unbelievable arrogance, ignorance, and stupidity
Posted by Jeremiah Angusoque4776 2022-06-27 02:17||   2022-06-27 02:17|| Front Page Top

#3 /\ ....and yet ignored by every one of the last five administrations.

Thank you Jeremiah. Would you (or anyone else) care to speculate on the reason(s) these indications and warnings were ignored ?

Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-27 02:25||   2022-06-27 02:25|| Front Page Top

#4 Four reasons

1. Arrogance: "Because we can," as Bill Clinton loved to say. End of History! America triumphant!

2. Ignorance: foolish unawareness of Russian history, of Russian national pride, of Russian geography, of even the most basic economic facts of Russian production. See Obama's stupidity: "Russia makes nothing the world wants" -- try oil, gas, potash, titanium, neon, platinum, coal, nickel, and wheat, you ignorant little fool. Ignorance of Russian national strategy, and the simple fact that EVERY Russian elite -- as Bill Burns said, "from the knuckle-staggers in the deepest recesses of the Kremlin to the sharpest and most liberal Russians"-- that every Russian views NATO, correctly, as a hostile and threatening military power thatust not under any circumstances be allowed to expand into any part of Ukraine -- especially not Crimea.

And then there's the colossal ignorance of a generation of US politicians who grew up in an era that sneered at the achievements of "dead white males" -- like the greatest modern poet, the greatest modern novelist, the greatest modern playwright, the greatest modern composers and pianists, all of them Russian. Not to mention complete ignorance of Russian and European history, and the central, indispensable role that Russia has always played in Europe's security architecture for 200 years.

Clinton is an exception but he was too distracted and Russia too weak during his time for him to apply his intelligence to the problem. His expansion of NATO in 1998 sent the train rolling downhill toward today's train wreck.

3. Incompetence: see Bush's proclamation at the Bucharest Summit -- which resulted in Georgia's starting a foolish war that ended in disaster. See Obama's foolish provocations in the Maidan fiasco -- which unleashed violent Ukrainian ethnic-nationalism and fascism, triggering eight years of savage civil war and acreign of terror that killed over 13,000. See Trump's foolish decision to begin training these Ukrainian thugs in December 2017.

See Biden's unbelievable string of provocations in 2021 from March (encouraging Zelensky to seek NATO membership and claim Crimea) through July (the US-Ukrainian "See Breeeze" hostile and unbelievably provocative naval exercises off Crimea) and September and November's declarations.

4. Russophobia and reverse racism: the degree of stupidity, astonishing ignorance hostility and foolish arrogance shown above is not found when it comes to China or any Asian nation, or the Arabs and Africans for that matter. Chinese sensitivities must be deferred to. Japan's pride must be respected. Spheres of influence are respected. Rule of law prevails.

But when it comes to the Great Whitey, all that goes out the window. No deference or diplomatic finesse, as with Xi Jinping; no, the White Leader's evil! He's a "thug"! Same for Arab or African chaos states that require us to avoid provocative or insulting language. Ah, but the Great Evil Whitey, why, "Russia makes nothing the world wants!"

We're seeing an orgy of stupid Whitey-Hatred now, and Russia is the ultimate symbol of everything loathed by the left, the greens, and the global Ghey-trans civil rights freaks. It has tons of oil. It refuses to let ghey sign prey on schoolchildren. Russia is pro-family and its population and fertility are increasing. Russia's proud of traditional European culture and makes no apologies for it. Russia rejected Pfizer's monstrous experimental therapy that doesn't work and that's caused millions of horrible adverse side effects.

I think that about covers it.
Posted by Jeremiah Angusoque4776 2022-06-27 08:05||   2022-06-27 08:05|| Front Page Top

#5 Thank you, as always.
Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-27 08:09||   2022-06-27 08:09|| Front Page Top

#6 #3 It has become difficult to rationally discuss. People have taken sides, some tribally, some out of sentiment or personal friendships. But one thing that can be agreed upon by all is that the stated reasons for this catastrophe are utter nonsense.

After the fall of the Soviet Union one of the first things they asserted was their concept of border nations and legitimate Russian analysts universally said, 'they really mean it'. Putin has said the same things in direct language for decades. This was a provocation and one that has been incrementally building for years.

Why? We live in a time of governments that do not serve their own people but other agendas set by small groups of internationalists. How any of this benefits them is beyond, well me primarily, but I see no other threads that should have begun to create a recognizable pattern.

At this point in time, I only hope there is an ambitious 18 Alpha or more in theater who can help some of the obscenely orphaned billions of dollars find a new home.
Posted by Cesare 2022-06-27 08:13||   2022-06-27 08:13|| Front Page Top

#7 Ditto.

Well stated.

Thank you.
Posted by badanov 2022-06-27 08:16||   2022-06-27 08:16|| Front Page Top

#8 /\ At this point in time, I only hope there is an ambitious 18 Alpha or more in theater who can help some of the obscenely orphaned billions of dollars find a new home.

They'd better dust off the EXFIL plan. I'm afraid there will be no 'happy ending' on this one.
Posted by Besoeker 2022-06-27 08:20||   2022-06-27 08:20|| Front Page Top

#9 And "Jeremiah" chimes in with the "nothing is Russia's fault" line of Kremlin BS. No mention of Russia's role in the "violent ethno-centrism" in Ukraine, no mention that Russia invaded over what in past decades the Russians would have lectured the world was "a purely internal matter".

Because Sainted Russia -- run by a gangster, with a population that has a hard time finding a future outside the vodka bottle -- is supposedly the future of "western" civilization.
Posted by Rob Crawford 2022-06-27 08:22||   2022-06-27 08:22|| Front Page Top

#10 No mention of Russia's role in the "violent ethno-centrism" in Ukraine,

Crawford is a caricature of a spitting Russophobe. Of course Putin deserves blame for invading. Mearsheimer' amd every other Russian expert's point is that the ultimate blame resides with NATO and the five US presidents whose foolishness, arrogance and gross incompetence created the crisis in the first place.,they bear most of the blame. No honestvassessment can conclude otherwise.

Within Ukraine, the violently Russophobic Ukrainian nationalists bear almost the entirety of the blame.

A bit of history. The internal diplomatic balancing act -- over Crimea and the rights of the pro-Russian eastern provinces -- that was pursued successfully within Ukraine throughout the 1990s was upset by the bandit and fake democrat Tymoshenko after 2004. At that point the nationalists began a surreal campaign to purge the entire country of any taint of Russianness -- in everyday language, in the schools, the culture, and supplemented this was harsh punitive measures that benefited their own corrupt crony billionaires while ripping off and suppressing the rights of Russian speakers.

Imagine your children and their teachers suddenly being forced to use a language nobody uses. That all of your favorite films and television programs are suddenly dubbed in that weird, harsh grating and inferior patois. That all the street signs suddenly have ridiculous new names reflecting the nationalist insanity.

That your local assembly no longer has basic rights and cannot pass local ordinances any more. That all your taxes are suddenly being redirected to the piss-poor worthless regions favored by the same corrupt thieving nationalist politicians who forced your language underground. Ukrainian nationalism ran amok beginning around 2004. It's the central fact in the domestic story.

Even Zelensky, when he improbably slouched into the presidency in 2019, was solidly against Ukrainian nationalism and foolish provocations.

It was only the combined pressure on him by extreme right-wing fascist political parties such as Right Sector as well as the return to power of the Nuland Biden and Jake Sullivan crew in March 2021 that caused the little comedian to suddenly go 180 degrees, becoming the defiant pro-NATO would-be conqueror of Crimea
Posted by Jeremiah Angusoque4776 2022-06-27 08:47||   2022-06-27 08:47|| Front Page Top

#11  Was Mearsheimer a lone voice in the forest, or were there others of a like mind ?

Posted by Besoeker \

Putin said as much, shouldn't surprise anyone.
Posted by Vespasian Ebboting9735 2022-06-27 09:26||   2022-06-27 09:26|| Front Page Top

#12 Within Ukraine, the violently Russophobic Ukrainian nationalists bear almost the entirety of the blame.

Doing nothing more that what the Russians did to the ethnic Germans of the former East Prussia, now Kaliningrad. 'It all depends upon who's ox is getting gored'
Posted by Procopius2k 2022-06-27 09:29||   2022-06-27 09:29|| Front Page Top

#13 #4 Russia refuses to let gheys prey on schoolchildren

And they only believe in two genders, those fascist creeps. Ignoring totally the other 148:

BBC staff told there are more than 150 genders and urged to develop ‘trans brand’Material provided to radio staff by Global Butterflies, a transgender group drafted in by corporation for training sessions last year

Posted by Glereting the Batty5172 2022-06-27 11:47||   2022-06-27 11:47|| Front Page Top

#14 One would think all the genders the Rus don't understand would be a secret weapon. Doesn't seem to work out that way.

The more the usual suspects moisten their panties over Mearsheimer, the less I would consider wasting time listening to him go on and on and on...
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-27 11:54||   2022-06-27 11:54|| Front Page Top

#15 So Besoeker is a "usual suspect" who's "moistening his panties" over Mearsheimer?

Are you feeling ok? Take your meds today gramps?
Posted by Gleamble Bumble4567 2022-06-27 12:05||   2022-06-27 12:05|| Front Page Top

#16 Oh, I busted somebody's groove. Not sorry.
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-27 12:07||   2022-06-27 12:07|| Front Page Top

#17 "Busted ..groove"? Ho-Kay, daddy-o. But that's squaresville.

Tell us: Why do you think Besoeker wears panties? Aren't you getting him mixed up with one of your virtual fetish girls, gramps?
Posted by Gleamble Bumble4567 2022-06-27 12:12||   2022-06-27 12:12|| Front Page Top

#18 None of this moistens my panties at all. I'm just a little upset because so many people have to die so that Hunter Biden can get a seat on the Gazprom board of directors.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2022-06-27 12:29||   2022-06-27 12:29|| Front Page Top

#19 I don't see Besoeker thinking I believe he wears panties. Enjoy your Mearsheimer all-day sucker.
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-27 12:31||   2022-06-27 12:31|| Front Page Top

#20 I, myself, believe we should not be aligned with Ukraine at all. It's a corrupto-state. That's what makes it so attractive to the corruptos inside the beltway.

No aged academic blathering is needed to explain that.
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-27 12:35||   2022-06-27 12:35|| Front Page Top

#21 We're fucked now precisely because our idiot leaders didn't listen to the dozens of wise men, including Mearsheimer, who told them to pull back from the brink.

If Obama had listened to them prior to 2014 none of this would have happened.

If Biden had listened to them in March and forced negotiations and a settlement on Ukraine then, we would have cutvour losses and avoided a trillion dollars in economic losses and spared tens of thousands in lives
Posted by Gleamble Bumble4567 2022-06-27 12:44||   2022-06-27 12:44|| Front Page Top

#22 ^ Bath House Barry say Ukraine as another piece of ammo in his fight against the non-communist world. The Vindman saga confirms it.

Where was Mearsheimer when Trump needed to be told to essentially ignore almost backstabber he hired, including his own fambly?
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-27 12:48||   2022-06-27 12:48|| Front Page Top

#23 Say, not say.
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-27 12:48||   2022-06-27 12:48|| Front Page Top

#24 "This particular obscure academic over here agrees with me" is just not a compelling argument.
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-06-27 12:56||   2022-06-27 12:56|| Front Page Top

#25  Imagine your children and their teachers suddenly being forced to use a language nobody uses. That all of your favorite films and television programs are suddenly dubbed in that weird, harsh grating and inferior patois. That all the street signs suddenly have ridiculous new names reflecting the nationalist insanity.

Back in the early 1990s, my Czech and Polish au pair girls told interesting stories about being forced to study Russian in school.

My paternal grandmother was one of the linguists who at the turn of the last century did the studies that categorized Latvian as a formal language rather than as mere debased peasant dialect. She was born a Russian, but her son was born a Latvian with a national history and literature to support it. Also military training for all schoolboys against future Russian reconquest, as did indeed happen.

As for the suffering of the poor Russian speakers, that is exactly what the Russia as the Soviet Union did to the Ukrainian-speaking Ukrainians for the better part of a century. What a transparent argument to justify a second attempt at cultural genocide you make, Jeremiah Angusoque4776.
Posted by trailing wife 2022-06-27 15:27||   2022-06-27 15:27|| Front Page Top

#26 I've come to the conclusion that they pay by the word in Saint Petersburg. Say, two rubles per? I hope they allow The New Guys to post the same work on multiple sites!
Posted by Secret Master 2022-06-27 15:40||   2022-06-27 15:40|| Front Page Top

#27 Say, two rubles per?

So "Jeremiah" wrote himself lunch in this thread alone?
Posted by Rob Crawford 2022-06-27 17:34||   2022-06-27 17:34|| Front Page Top

#28 ^I think we can safely lay to rest the old racial stereotype of Ivan being drunk and lazy. As a penny-a-word hack, "Jeremiah" seems really quite industrious! (You have to be. I started my writing career as a penny-a-word hack.)
Posted by Secret Master 2022-06-27 17:51||   2022-06-27 17:51|| Front Page Top

22:49 M. Murcek
22:41 Aca Joe
21:25 Lord Garth
21:10 Nero
20:37 magpie
20:36 magpie
19:30 USN, Ret.
18:11 swksvolFF
18:08 Zhang Fei
18:03 NoMoreBS
18:00 NoMoreBS
17:51 Secret Master
17:49 Mercutio
17:35 Rob Crawford
17:34 Rob Crawford
17:31 Rob Crawford
17:16 Lord Garth
17:15 jpal
17:08 Lord Garth
16:40 jpal
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16:35 Besoeker
16:20 Besoeker
16:14 NN2N1









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