Article

2022-09-12 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Ukrainians now seem to be past the final Russian defensive line in Donetsk

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Posted by 3dc 2022-09-12 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11129 views ] Top
File under: Tin Hat Dictators, Presidents for Life,

#1 It's kind of confusing when someone talks about actions occurring entirely in Kharkiv and Luhansk, and keeps calling it 'Donetsk'.

I was braced for some new collapse on the southern arc of the lines.

Posted by Mitch H. 2022-09-12 07:32|| 2022-09-12 07:32|| Front Page Top

#2 I had read that Ukr forces were already in Lysychansk yesterday morning. Apparently Ukrainian families living in Estonia heard this from their relatives still in the city.

Posted by Mullah Richard 2022-09-12 09:45|| 2022-09-12 09:45|| Front Page Top

#3 Some Ukrainian columns have gotten behind the final lines in Donetsk. They slipped through some gaps. Yes the offensive wias in Kharkiv and Luhansk but they took advantages where they saw them.
It's raining like hell the last 2 days in the area so who knows what's really going on. Late last night the biggest headache Ukraine had was what to do with the massive numbers of troops they had captured. They were not prepared for the numbers of POWs they took.

Posted by 3dc 2022-09-12 11:49|| 2022-09-12 11:49|| Front Page Top

#4 But the Ukrainians are also doing far more than probing into Luhansk & even Donetsk. It appears the "Luhansk Republic" (that's the legal fiction the Russians concocted to justify parts of their invasion) has collapsed. No surprise considering it was completely run by Russians.

This from the Institute for the Study of War. Link

Posted by 3dc 2022-09-12 12:18|| 2022-09-12 12:18|| Front Page Top

#5 From the ISW:
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis. Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around Izyum. Russian forces have previously weakened the northern Donbas axis by redeploying units from this area to Southern Ukraine, complicating efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance or at minimum deploy a covering force for the retreat. Ukrainian gains are not confined to the Izyum area; Ukrainian forces reportedly captured Velikiy Burluk on September 10, which would place Ukrainian forces within 15 kilometers of the international border. Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and captured over 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April.

Posted by 3dc 2022-09-12 12:20|| 2022-09-12 12:20|| Front Page Top

#6 To quote Zeihan again:
Appears in some places the only reason the Ukrainians rnt moving more quickly is they're allowing Russians fleeing on foot to alert the nxt outpost/town down the road to the Ukr approach so THOSE troops can flee too, leaving every piece of equipment behind for Ukr to scoop up.

Remember Zeihan was one of the key strategic thinkers at Stratfor from it's founding days. Yes he's not really Stratfor's voice now that he's stand alone but his statements and views are usually rock solid.

Posted by 3dc 2022-09-12 12:25|| 2022-09-12 12:25|| Front Page Top

#7 This question answer bit is kind of key:

romulus
@romulus2095
·
21m
Replying to
@PeterZeihan
Why? Why is the Russian army collapsing? If the ukrainians are capturing weapons then Russian soldiers still have weapons. What changed since last month?

core fracture 🇪🇺🇦🇹
@C0reFr4cture
·
19m
They have little supply, get literally cut in half by smart ammunition and there is no reserves in the north east. Everything is in east or south. No way to defend meaningful.
This costs gear (hundreds of tanks and BMPs), men (2500 KIA, 12000k captured) and moral everywhere.

Posted by 3dc 2022-09-12 12:28|| 2022-09-12 12:28|| Front Page Top

#8 "Why is the Russian army collapsing"

I think that remains to be seen. How much momentum does ukr have - not enough to march on moscow. To me, things look more like a strategic retreat than a route. So with that, I think it depends on how you play defense. Does RUS see it as an advantage to remain bogged down in the ukr cities? Or is there an advantage in moving their assets to country side where they will be more mobile?

I believe the latter is more advantageous as iirc the moguls had great success in not occupying european cities on the steppe as it allowed them to use mobility on flat terrain to their advantage.

It follows that the true test will be if UKR can hold the ground they gained. I think to do so, to hold the cities, they will be exposed to air-ground and artillery fire.

So does ukr have momentum to invade RUS, no. So the question will be, can they hold their gains. And as i started, it remains to be seen - we shall see.

Posted by mossomo 2022-09-12 13:41|| 2022-09-12 13:41|| Front Page Top

#9 Russian recently that they retreated eight days ago in anticipation of the attack, and that the only forces the Ukrainians faced were covering parties.

Posted by badanov 2022-09-12 13:45|| 2022-09-12 13:45|| Front Page Top

#10 I take this with an appropriate grain of salt, but the guy who has taken over the "Oryx List" here reports 102 pieces of Russian heavy equipment destroyed or captured (mainly captured) just yesterday, enough to equip a Ukrainian armored brigade. That seems to me to be more consistent with a "feets don't fail me now" evolution than with a tactical withdrawal. But I ain't there.

Posted by Matt 2022-09-12 14:06|| 2022-09-12 14:06|| Front Page Top

#11 Matt - the author is from Bellingcat, gain of salt is needed.

Posted by mossomo 2022-09-12 15:02|| 2022-09-12 15:02|| Front Page Top

#12 ...the moguls had great success...

Well... not even the Russians are using horses any more.

Posted by Rob Crawford 2022-09-12 15:10|| 2022-09-12 15:10|| Front Page Top

#13 ^ mossomo, I agree. it's a data point.

Posted by Matt 2022-09-12 15:11|| 2022-09-12 15:11|| Front Page Top

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