Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Text taken from the Telegram channel of @playcivilization
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
[ColonelCassad] Some comments on the new war in the Middle East.
The following points remain outside the discussion of the course of military operations.
1. The United States is participating in this war.
It is naive to think that Israel relies only on its intelligence. The accuracy of Israel's strikes is such that only one country in the world can ensure this. Only the United States has the ability to collect primary data on all mobile network subscribers and either process it themselves, identifying the necessary contacts and establishing online surveillance of target people, or leak this database to Israel for processing.
But only the Americans can do the collection. They also have space reconnaissance systems that allow them to take accurate radar images of the terrain and military equipment several times a day in some cases, and to track the situation in real time in others, and to transmit this data to whoever they deem necessary.
In addition, the United States is directly involved in the destruction of Iranian missiles and UAVs outside Iranian territory. The United States is a participant in the attack on Iran, but the extent of US participation allows them to declare their non-involvement.
2. The factor of the so-called "sayyanim".
Sayanim (from Hebrew סייענים, English sayanim, in Hebrew - "helpers", assistants, (singular sayan, pl. sayanim) in the singular - sayan) - a secret international network of voluntary agents of Israel, managed by the operational units of the Mossad. These are Jews who under normal circumstances remain loyal to the country of residence and do not break the law, but on command are ready to provide assistance to the Mossad or another Israeli intelligence service without asking unnecessary questions.
| I am half Israeli on my father’s side, and this is the first time I have heard of such a thing or of that word. |
Sayans are usually not involved in operational work, due to their lack of training. Their tasks are simpler - for example, renting a large garage, finding and buying a car, providing some strangers with a place to live that meets the specified criteria, etc. Theoretically, they can be entrusted with more complex tasks if the supervisory officer considers it worth it.
In 1990, a book called "By Way of Deception" was published in Canada by retired Mossad officer Viktor Ostrovsky (co-authored with Canadian journalist Claire Hoy), who worked with the "sayanim". According to him, in London in the 80s, Mossad had 7,000 sayanim, which at that time was 0.1% of the entire city population. Zionist organizations are engaged in the recruitment of sayanim.
In Iran, anti-Semitism is officially condemned, and the Jewish minority has two reserve seats in parliament. The Jewish diaspora in Iran still exists, but officially at the turn of the 2000s there was a collapse in its numbers, from tens of thousands to thousands of people.
Nevertheless, this collapse was not accompanied by a reduction in the presence of Jews in public life, and a sharp, proportional reduction in the number of synagogues.Which may indicate that a significant part of the Jewish community of Iran has gone into the "shadows".
Perhaps it was then that the Sayans began to be activated en masse, because it was in those years that Iran's progress in a number of areas slowed down sharply, as its space program literally "came to a standstill."
The attack on Iran with the deployment of large contingents of special forces on Iranian territory, with the deployment of UAVs and missile systems near military facilities, with the outright failure of Iranian counterintelligence, could not have happened without the "sayans."
Anthropologically, Jews and Persians in Iran are indistinguishable, which makes it easier for the former to infiltrate anywhere. To understand the degree of indistinguishability (and infiltration capabilities), you can compare a photo of a rabbi with a photo of Seyyed Ali Khamenei.
3. Despite the spectacularity of the Israeli attack, it is more stunning than deadly.
Moreover, there is every reason to believe that in a fairly short time Israel will face a shortage of high-precision weapons. Forecast - they will be able to maintain the pace of strikes for several dozen days, but not more than a hundred.
Then everything will depend on the political will of the Iranian leadership and the degree of its control over the population.
At the cost of overexertion and disproportionately high losses, Iran can still win. But it will be very difficult
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