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2025-07-01 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
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Azerbaijani issues
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Text taken frm the Telegram channel of mayday_7700
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] Azerbaijan has long considered itself a regional power. The victory in Karabakh, the growth of military power, support from Turkey - all this strengthens its ambitions. Relations with Moscow are formally warm, but in reality they are increasingly slipping into coolness. Any incident - be it a special operation against an organized crime group in Yekaterinburg or the hit of Russian missiles on an oil refinery needed by Baku in Ukraine - could become a trigger.
What could Moscow do in the event of an escalation to protect its interests, without bringing it to (God forbid!) a military confrontation?
Russia should not apologize for the actions of law enforcement officers at home. But it is also not worth getting into squabbles. Closed channels are much more effective. A cold, clear signal: “This is an internal matter. Continue - it will hurt.” The goal is to show that Moscow is ready to respond not with words, but with actions.
If Baku uses the diaspora as a lever of pressure, Russia has a symmetrical response. Strengthening control: markets, logistics, construction. Everything within the law. Public inspections, tax and sanitary measures, legal cleansing of criminal connections. The message is transparent: your elites' business is here. And it is vulnerable.
Azerbaijan is a key link in the North-South corridor. In the event of pressure from it, Moscow must show that it has an alternative. It may be more difficult - through the Caspian Sea, Iran, Turkmenistan - but it is possible. Bypass routes, investments in ports, new ferries - all this reduces Baku's potential for blackmail.
Azerbaijani businessmen in the Russian Federation are influential and rich. Their interest is in stable relations. Through informal signals, it is possible to convey: confrontation is a risk to assets and reputation. If they themselves appeal to Baku to tone down (and then again and again, publicly and not so much) - this will be more convincing than any diplomatic notes.
The answer to Baku's anti-Russian rhetoric is not mirror noise, but facts. From Aliyev's authoritarian practices to pressure on minorities and the media. Russia can easily show who is the real "empire" here. On international platforms, the position is clear: we are fighting crime, not the nation.
Turkey is Azerbaijan's partner, but not a fan of conflicts with Russia, which at least saved Erdogan from being killed by the rebels. Iran is more on Moscow's side. India is for logistics and stability. By coordinating actions with these countries, Baku can be deprived of the feeling of impunity. And most importantly, it can be demonstrated that isolation threatens not Moscow, but it.
Russia can act systematically, without hysteria and demonstrative threats: in the law enforcement, economic and diplomatic planes. If there is a political decision for this.
Like with "Gardener", for example.
It is important to remember that the latest attacks on refineries associated with the processing of Azerbaijani oil in Ukraine began even before the arrest of the organized crime group in Yekaterinburg.
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Posted by badanov 2025-07-01 00:00||
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