Article

2008-07-30 India-Pakistan

Pak troops fire mortar shells at Indian post along LOC

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Posted by john frum 2008-07-30 10:13|| || Front Page|| [7 views ] Top

#1 If the Paks manage to create a localized crisis at the LOC - artillery duels etc.. they will be able to play it up in their media.

That gets the jihadis enraged and diverts them from attacks in Pakistan proper and towards Indian Kashmir.

That also allows the Paks to point to the deteriorating situation on the Indian border as an excuse not to use their forces for counterinsurgency duties at the Afghan border.

Posted by john frum 2008-07-30 10:31|| 2008-07-30 10:31|| Front Page Top

#2 That also allows the Paks to point to the deteriorating situation on the Indian border as an excuse not to use their forces for counterinsurgency duties at the Afghan border.
Posted by: john frum

John, your analysis, as always, is spot-on. The one thing I worry about is India getting tired of these constant pin-pricks and just clobbering the He$$ out of the Pak army. That would leave a monstrous power vacuum that the Taliban wouldn't hesitate to try to fill. Things could get pretty nasty over there, if that happens.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2008-07-30 13:57|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2008-07-30 13:57|| Front Page Top

#3 India isn't taking the bait. They are waiting for the US pressure to compel Pakistan to reorient its army to counterinsurgency duties. General Kayani doesn't want to oblige however.

An outcome where the Pak army is forced to become a police COIN force would be sweet revenge for the Indians.

That may be worth taking some casualties from LOC firing and Hospital bombings.

It will take far greater Pak atrocities to compel the Indian leadership to act. Mass civilian deaths (in the hundreds or thousands) would do it.
Or a Pak capture of Indian positions on the LOC.

Posted by john frum 2008-07-30 14:05|| 2008-07-30 14:05|| Front Page Top

#4 It will take far greater Pak atrocities to compel the Indian leadership to act.

Since the Pakis feel they've USA by the balls over Afghan logistics, what won't take too long.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2008-07-30 14:43|| 2008-07-30 14:43|| Front Page Top

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