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2022-07-15 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Ukrainian HIMARS strikes have killed or wounded most of the leadership of the Russian 106th Airborne and 20th Motorized Rifle Divisions
Posted by Fred 2022-07-15 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11138 views ]  Top
 File under: Tin Hat Dictators, Presidents for Life, & Kleptocrats 

#1 Nice shooting
Posted by DarthVader 2022-07-15 08:09||   2022-07-15 08:09|| Front Page Top

#2 Someone is getting some good intel.

What this presents is a problem. Russians have had generals (acting like colonels) near or in the front lines because they have to personally direct operations. However, if they are within HIMARS range, then they become priority targets. That means moving back which then relies upon subordinates to carry out the operation. However, the generals are up there because they don't have reliable subordinates (who are doing captains work anyways). Someone is targeting the sociological weakness of the Russian system.
Posted by Procopius2k 2022-07-15 08:28||   2022-07-15 08:28|| Front Page Top

#3 So, the Russians conclude that to kill NATO generals they have to attack Brussels? The Pentagon?
Posted by M. Murcek 2022-07-15 08:34||   2022-07-15 08:34|| Front Page Top

#4 So, the Russians conclude that to kill NATO generals they have to attack Brussels? The Pentagon?

Valid strategy. That is why in war they are the most heavily defended with SAMs and air cover and anti-missile systems.
Posted by DarthVader 2022-07-15 09:03||   2022-07-15 09:03|| Front Page Top

#5 So, the Russians conclude that to kill NATO generals they have to attack Brussels? The Pentagon?

Rather deep targets from front lines. Usually those missiles are also nuke capable. Want to wait to find out?
Posted by Procopius2k 2022-07-15 09:11||   2022-07-15 09:11|| Front Page Top

#6 This isn't going to end well, I fear.
Posted by DooDahMan 2022-07-15 09:13||   2022-07-15 09:13|| Front Page Top

#7 With the number of "warrior bureaucrats" in Brussels and the Pentagon wouldn't it clear a lot of useless ROAD (Retired On Active Duty) deadwood...? Pardon my cynicism but the bloat in the number of flag rank officers seems more than criminal...
Posted by magpie 2022-07-15 09:59||   2022-07-15 09:59|| Front Page Top

#8 HIMARS are high value targets. There appears to be an ELINT signature or leak enabling targeting. Presumably the Russians could emulate that pattern and effectively ambush the HIMARS with counterbattery fire or loitering drones creating an ambush after they salvo. Wouldn’t have to destroy it simply disable it long enough for follow on strikes to take them out. Believe there are only eight currently operating. Curious that they haven’t been more aggressively targeted
Posted by Cloluck Bourbon1058 2022-07-15 10:04||   2022-07-15 10:04|| Front Page Top

#9 Hard to target them when your air force is not up to snuff to find them.
Posted by Chris 2022-07-15 10:17||   2022-07-15 10:17|| Front Page Top

#10 How effective were we in locating SCUD launchers in the Gulf War with air supremacy?
Posted by Procopius2k 2022-07-15 10:25||   2022-07-15 10:25|| Front Page Top

#11 Was Super Mario III out yet?
Posted by swksvolFF 2022-07-15 10:42||   2022-07-15 10:42|| Front Page Top

#12 How effective were we in locating SCUD launchers in the Gulf War with air supremacy?

Piss poor, even with near 50% of strike aircraft dedicated to finding towards the end of the air campaign.

Cloluck Bourbon1058 has hit on the question that most people ask. HIMARS are very hard to hit because they don't stay in one location more than 5 minutes and that is to fire. The Ukrainians use them at night as they know the Russians have shit to none for night vision, can't fly drones deep into the Ukraine as they get shot down as fast as they send them (see Putie-pie begging Iran for drones) and the Russians can't get air superiority. Combine all that with a huge lack of technological solutions like counter battery radar and they will only be able to take out a HIMAR if they are very lucky.

So far the Ukrainians are showing they understand hit and fade tactics very well and they are very effective against a slow, lumbering and untrained military like the Russian army.
Posted by DarthVader 2022-07-15 10:44||   2022-07-15 10:44|| Front Page Top

#13 HIMARS mobility aside, Class V (ammunition) is the weakness, and the danger for unexpected consequences. The Russians have got to have (perhaps with PLA help) good orbital tracking of the resupply routes and points of entry into Ukraine from NATO. Interdiction at the point of entry/transshipment would seem to be within cruise missile/IRBM range for convention strikes if momentary air superiority is unlikely.
Circular probability of error/ poor vodka maintenance might result in a NATO country strike in error(intentional or not). Poof, escalation dance begins and somebody says tac-nuke. To Quote Admiral from Hunt for Red October:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZuMe5RvxPQ
Posted by NoMoreBS 2022-07-15 11:29||   2022-07-15 11:29|| Front Page Top

#14 Not bad for an "over the weekend" war!
Posted by AlmostAnonymous5839 2022-07-15 14:55||   2022-07-15 14:55|| Front Page Top

#15 Circular probability of error/ poor vodka maintenance might result in a NATO country strike in error

The ability to determine a strike near the border or across the border is nil. The Russians know that. Those NATO countries on the 'frontline' most likely have an air defense zone that starts at the border to that distance inside of the Ukraine their systems will reach. Not the the Ukrainians would object to a no-go zone in that case. AWAC can detect launch and direction from way into country and vector the appropriate ADA asset.
Posted by Procopius2k 2022-07-15 17:07||   2022-07-15 17:07|| Front Page Top

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