Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Commentary by Russian blogger Donetsk
[DonRF] The events of yesterday and tonight involuntarily bring to mind the events of more than a century ago in another base of the Russian fleet - Port Arthur. For those who are not fond of history, there was a powerful squadron of the Russian fleet in 1904.
Able to actively resist the Japanese. And they did not break into the forehead, but simply attacked her with torpedoes at night, damaging two battleships and one cruiser, after which, without fear of opposition, they equipped a maneuverable base on the nearby Elliot Islands, after which the only combat mission of the Pacific Oceanists was to dump them in Vladivostok, breaking through blockade.
But this is the past, and yesterday:
"At 4:20 am, the Kyiv regime carried out a terrorist attack on ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian ships that were on the outer and inner roads of the Sevastopol base. Nine unmanned aerial vehicles and seven autonomous marine unmanned vehicles were involved in the attack"
The minesweeper was damaged, according to rumors in our TG channels, the frigate "Admiral Makarov" (not officially confirmed, in any case, if it was minimally decorative). The fleet repelled the attack. But this night in Sevastopol, according to rumors, there were explosions again in the TG. Moreover, there will be more explosions. Having created a base in Ochakovo even before the NVO (when I wrote that the 73rd Special Maritime Operations Center was being revived, and Britain was building a naval base there, they laughed at me in the year 2018 and called me an alarmist), they have their Elliots, from where they can influence the Main Fleet Base an unlimited number of times . And the fleet gets a fork of decisions - either spend all its forces on the defense of the base, as in Port Arthur, but lose the sea and the ability to influence the enemy, or make a gesture of goodwill, coupled with a successful regrouping in Novorossiysk, and lose the sea.
The fleet cannot do otherwise, the army can. Ochakov is still not an island, it is a city on the mainland, close to which comes the Kinburn Spit, controlled by the Russian Federation. It can be smashed into the trash, you can advance from Kherson to Nikolaev, you can mine the water area or land troops ...
Why it has come to this is understandable - a grain deal. Blackmail by the vulnerability of Kaliningrad and attempts to enter the negotiation track predictably lifted the blockade of the Ukrainian coast, and untied the hands of the Ukrainian Navy (more precisely, the British). The rest is a matter of technique.
The deal was suspended yesterday. But for the most part, it doesn't change anything. For underwater UAVs were brought in (and he also wrote - they will be used against the fleet), the personnel were delivered, the control center was prepared for them. And just the UAV will be brought in and so on.
Plus, the quite expected step of Moscow, Kyiv quite expectedly and parried - demanded to exclude the Russian Federation with Jay 20 ... for disrupting the grain deal. Whether it will come out or not is not clear, I think not, but there will be no consequences for this Kyiv.
And for the Russian Federation there will be, dear people who have lost the well-established gesheft with such difficulty, will lobby with all their foolishness for its return and the withdrawal of the fleet to Novorossiysk. Plus the pressure of the West, plus the desire to freeze the conflict...
If you look at the picture as a whole - while we are again banging our heads against the wall , we are advancing on Avdievka and Ugledar, where the best army in the world with old weapons, the NM DPR, has nevertheless achieved local successes, there where this is impossible in principle, as the PMC Wagner achieves them near Bakhmut, the enemy is strangling our right-bank foothold. Slowly and methodically.
The strike on the Crimean bridge weakened the logistics, strikes on the fleet will make the group defenseless from the sea. All the same, 30 Calibers in a salvo is a terrible force. And the marines at the BDK are power. And if this power is removed from the Crimea ...
The goal of the enemy is to push us back beyond the Dnieper. We will not go back, this is clear to everyone, except for the trade union patriots. And bare defense will not prevent this. And you can’t prevent a local offensive in the Donbass to divert reserves. Take the maximum. And the strikes on energy have been stopped. Fully. For there is nothing to spoil the life of partners. This is not our method, you need to wait until Western air defense enters there, until they restore part of the capacity, and then ... create a comfortable negotiating atmosphere.
I will not continue further, the enemy will continue the attack on Sevastopol, and how will it end, if the evil is not resisted by violence, in the hope of an ordinary miracle of a negotiating track, the victory of the Republicans, the depletion of the enemy's resources - I think it's clear.
And not a claim to the army, by no means, Comrade Surovikin skillfully crippled the enemy's electric power industry, strengthened the front, is trying to advance in different directions of the front to smear the enemy's reserves, as the Charter says. But no general makes political decisions. It's not theirs. And if politicians say to the morgue, in the sense of peaceful initiatives and gestures of goodwill, then it will be to the morgue, in the sense of negotiations, or rather their attempts.
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