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2025-02-16 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Astronomer reveals when data on the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 will be available

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] Full data on the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4, which may collide with Earth in 2032, will not appear earlier than in three to four years. This was reported on February 15 by Vladimir Busarev, a leading researcher at the Sternberg State Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University named after M. V. Lomonosov (GAIS MSU).

The scientist noted that this is the period of 2024 YR4's revolution around the Sun. Only after its completion will comprehensive information about the entire orbit of the celestial body appear and it will be possible to answer the question of whether it will collide with the Earth.

“I think that the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 will remain insufficiently studied until 2028,” TASS quoted Busarev as saying.

The astronomer added that the object belongs to the Apollo family, which are considered potentially dangerous and require regular observations, as their orbits change relatively quickly under the influence of the gravitational fields of the Earth, as well as Mercury, Venus, Mars and the Sun. At the same time, according to Busarev, there is currently no reason for concern.

As reported by the Regnum news agency, the asteroid with the designation 2024 YR4 was discovered in December by specialists from the ATLAS observatory in Chile. Its diameter is presumably between 40 and 90 m, which roughly corresponds to the Tunguska meteorite.

The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) said on February 7 that the chance of the newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in December 2032 has increased from 1% to 2.3%.

According to Stanislav Korotky, scientific director of the Ka-Dar observatory and the Astroverty astrofarm, the range of estimates of the threat of YR4 colliding with Earth is due to the short period of observations of this cosmic body. So far, the supposed area of the object's fall is considered to be Central Africa or the Atlantic Ocean.

On February 11, the British publication The Independent reported, citing new calculations, that the potentially Earth-threatening asteroid 2024 YR4 may not reach the planet and crash into the Moon. This is the conclusion reached by a group of asteroid hunters from the University of Arizona and NASA.

In China, YR4 has prompted the formation of a planetary defense team.

Posted by badanov 2025-02-16 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11158 views ] Top

#1
The questions now are:

Whom will be the Al Gore Doomsayer type figures over the next 3 to 4 years?

How much $$$$$$$$$$$$ will the Governments claim to spend saving humanity and pocket?

When will they start using it as an excuse to clamp down on basic freedoms and dictate oppressive controls over their citizens?

Posted by NN2N1 2025-02-16 05:15|| 2025-02-16 05:15|| Front Page Top

#2 yes we have to wait until 2028 for better data, but at this point collision with earth or the moon is very unlikely

however in case a collision looks likely, by 2032 we will have better rockets and thus a much better defense against a rouge asteroid

Posted by Lord Garth 2025-02-16 12:09|| 2025-02-16 12:09|| Front Page Top

#3 I remember when I was but a wee lad (the 1960s), MIT did a study based on the asteroid Icarus hitting Earth:

"Project Icarus" was a student project conducted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the spring of 1967 as a contingency plan in case of an impending collision with 1566 Icarus.

This project was an assignment by Paul Sandorff for his group of MIT systems engineering graduate students to devise a plan to use rockets to deflect or destroy Icarus in the case that it was found to be on a collision course with planet Earth.[29][30][31] Time magazine ran an article on the endeavor in June 1967[30] and the following year the student report was published as a book.[29][31][32]

The students' plan relied on the new Saturn V rocket, which did not make its first flight until after the report had been completed. During the course of their study, the students visited the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, where they were so impressed with the Vehicle Assembly Building that they wrote of "the awesome reality" that had "completely erased" their doubts over using the technology associated with the Apollo program and Saturn rockets.

The final plan hypothesized that six Saturn V rockets (appropriated from the then-current Apollo program) would be used, each launched at variable intervals from months to hours away from impact. Each rocket was to be fitted with a single 100-megaton nuclear warhead as well as a modified Apollo Service Module and uncrewed Apollo Command Module for guidance to the target. The warheads would be detonated 30 meters from the surface, deflecting or partially destroying the asteroid. Depending on the subsequent impacts on the course or the destruction of the asteroid, later missions would be modified or cancelled as needed. The "last-ditch" launch of the sixth rocket would be 18 hours prior to impact.

Mike

Posted by MikeKozlowski 2025-02-16 12:22|| 2025-02-16 12:22|| Front Page Top

#4 The "last-ditch" launch of the sixth rocket would be 18 hours prior to impact

And 9 months later the world would be over-populated with newborns

Posted by Frank G 2025-02-16 12:59|| 2025-02-16 12:59|| Front Page Top

#5 Don't Look Up!

Posted by The Walking Unvaxed 2025-02-16 13:13|| 2025-02-16 13:13|| Front Page Top

#6 ^3
1566 Icarus was about 1 mile in diameter.

2024 YR4 is about 200 feet in diameter. Just having a big rocket hit the asteroid at, say 100 mph, will alter the asteroid's path significantly.

Posted by Lord Garth 2025-02-16 14:43|| 2025-02-16 14:43|| Front Page Top

#7 Unless it’s just loosely attracted gravel, Lord Garth. SteveS schooled me on the subject the last time this came up.

Posted by trailing wife 2025-02-16 15:53|| 2025-02-16 15:53|| Front Page Top

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