It is tempting to see this as a revolution that will bring down the regime. But Egypt is not Tunisia. And while the demonstrations are passionate it is not clear that the numbers of participants are huge. If the elite and the army hold together they could well prevail, perhaps by removing Mubarak to save the regime. We should be cautious in drawing conclusions.
2) Do you see the threat of an Islamist takeover by the Ikhwan?
So far the uprising has not been led by the Muslim Brotherhood. But it is the only large organized opposition group. It is hard to see how it would not be the leading force after a while. The leadership would have to decide that it is facing a revolutionary situation and that this is the moment for an all-out effort. But if it does so and fails there will be a terrible repression and the group will be crushed. It appears that the Brotherhood is joining the protests but has not made its basic decision yet. In the longer term if the regime is completely overthrown I do believe the Brotherhood will emerge as the leader and perhaps the ruler of the country.
3) Do you see any chances that Egypt will witness the same model of Iran of 1979, the democratic protests followed by an Islamist rule?
Absolutely yes. On one hand, so far they lack a charismatic leader. On the other hand, alternative non-Islamist leadership is probably weaker than it was in Iran. Remember also that the Iranian revolution went on for almost a year, with the Islamists emerging as leaders only after five or six months. Many experts predicted that moderate democrats would emerge as rulers and said an Islamist regime was impossible but that isn't what happened. I very much hope I am wrong.
4) How the Arab status quo can be reformed and changed without letting the Jihadist fanatics take power? Is it possible to have democracy and liberalism?
One would need strong leaders, strong organizations, an ability to repress opposition, a clear program, and unity, among other things. None of this is present on the moderate democratic side. Again, I wish it was otherwise. More than any other country, reformers--though not all of them--have believed they can work with and then manipulate the Islamists. That seems like a mistake.
The chances for democracy and liberalism are different in every country. Tunisia has a good chance because there is a strong middle class and a weak Islamist movement. But in Egypt look at the numbers in the latest Pew poll.
In Egypt, 30 percent like Hizballah (66 percent don't). 49 percent are favorable toward Hamas (48 percent are negative); and 20 percent smile (72 percent frown) at al-Qaida. Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad. This doesn't tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government at home, but it is an indicator.
In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.
Asked if they supported "modernizers" or "Islamists" only 27 percent said modernizers while 59 percent said Islamists:
Is this meaningless? Last December 20 I wrote that these "horrifying figures in Egypt...one day might be cited to explain an Islamist revolution there....What this analysis also shows is that a future Islamist revolution in Egypt and Jordan is quite possible.
5) What kind of threat the Muslim Brotherhood network pose to Israel and the Western democracies?
In power? A huge threat: renewed warfare, overwhelming anti-Americanism, efforts to spread revolution to other moderate states, a potential alignment with Iran and Syria (though that might not happen), incredible damage to Western interests. In short, a real disaster. What shocks me is that Western media and experts seem so carried away by this movement they are only considering a best-case outcome. As I suggested, I would prefer things were otherwise but I am deeply worried and one of the things I'm worried about is that others don't seem to be worried.
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are Lebanon: Liberation, Conflict, and Crisis (Palgrave Macmillan), Conflict and Insurgency in the Contemporary Middle East (Routledge), The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition) (Viking-Penguin), the paperback edition of The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan), A Chronological History of Terrorism (Sharpe), and The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley).
#5
There's nothing USA can do to maintain Mubarak's regime.
When they were rioting under Sadat, triggered by food costs, Carter 'gave' literally boat loads of grain to Sadat which the Russians were never in a position to do. That allowed the wedge to start the break up of the Muslim war coalition against Israel. One of the few thing Jimmy did right. Poor Obama and State's situation is that agricultural policy, green politics, and wanton spending have removed that card from the deck, to address the original excuse for the fire which is now feeding on other grievances.
#7
It looks like he is heading in this direction. He has already sold out Israel. Offering a beer summit would be along the lines of applauding when Yang Yang (or whatever the hell his name was) played and sang at the Whitehouse and the POTUS applauded.
(i) Egypt population doubled since them.
(ii) In Carter era USA was food exporter.
(iii) Carter was/is a freak, but a sincere one.
(iv) If you feed Egypt, you've to feed Jordan, Tunis, etc....
(v) Last, not least, it too late.
#11
okay, worst case scenerio, the worst sort of Islamists take over Egypt. How does that change the world? They have minimal oil but they do control the Suez and have a lot of manpower to exploit/export. Lastly they are unlikely to honor the Peace Treaty with Israel.
The Suez issue really, really, affects Europe. Is it enough for them to become friends with Israel again in hopes of a repeat of the Suez Crisis?
#12
Obama doesn't have any tools in his tool box other than to rile up people to blame George Bush and Rush Limbaugh. The people he has surrounded himself with are only good at creating large pools of tax money that can be looted for their cronies. They have no clue or desire to govern.
I suspect he'll just create another pool of money that can be looted for his cronies. Never let a good crisis go to waste.
Posted by: Martini ||
01/29/2011 17:49 Comments ||
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#13
I'm not so sure Mubaraks cooked yet. He sent his family to safety, and considering what happened to his predecessor that might be for the best. There are reports the Death Toll is MUCH higher, and now protesters are fighting looters without intervention. It seems to me rather than risk themselves, the authorities are just letting everyone slug it out when they can.
Mubarak might be gone in september, but I think the "Establishment" will stay in place. There's still alot unclear about the ground situation. Remember, quite a few thought the Shia uprising against Saddam afer Kuwait was his end. That turned out to be grossly over-stated.
Posted by: Charles ||
01/29/2011 22:04 Comments ||
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#14
I'm sort of hoping the Egyptian authorities go Whiskey Foxtrot on the bunch, and round up the MB for some special love.
Otherwise, things get too hot and th MB take over, Israel may have to let the birds fly. Not that I would care. Scorched Earth and a few dozen Muzzie cities glowing might take the starch out of Islam.
Who knows, maybe a guidance error might render a particular cesspool inop as well. We can pray.
Posted by: Secret Asian Man ||
01/29/2011 23:39 Comments ||
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[Asharq al-Aswat] Saad Hariri is not the first person to unjustly lose his position as prime minister; he represents the Sunni majority in Lebanese parliament, with twenty Sunni MPs supporting him, in comparison to only seven Sunni MPs backing his rival Najib Mikati. Hariri's father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was wronged, removed from power, before ultimately being assassinated. Following the same rule of the [electoral] winners being overpowered in the interests of the losers, Iraqi Shiite leader Iyad Allawi was similarly set aside even though his party had won the most number of seats in the Iraqi elections. This was after Iran demanded that Allawi not be allowed to head the Iraqi government as he was not one of their followers, and this is indeed what came to pass.
Despite the injustice suffered by Hariri, his followers did not respond to this in a civilized manner, and so the "respectable party" began to act like the other party that we have accused of attempting to incite the Lebanese street. It was aberrant to see street mobs attacking one another and setting fire to private and public property. This is something which does not befit the March 14 Those are the good guys, insofar as Leb has good guys... Alliance which distinguished itself across the Arab World by being a party that respects political principles, refused to be intimidated, and adheres to the values that it prides itself on. These factors tipped the scales in favour of the March 14 Alliance, and resulted in this coalition gaining much support on a variety of levels. The mob and those behind it spoilt the March 14 Alliance's clean-cut image, which was known to command popular respect without having to resort to violence.
Thanks to its slogans, positions, and the reality the ground [in Leb], the March 14 Alliance was able to set the standard for political ethics [in Leb], winning the elections and embarrassing the other political parties who relied heavily upon force of arms and resorting to the street. However after what happened in Leb earlier this week, I was certain that Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah would come out to say "look, we all resort to the streets!" and that is exactly what he did.
In my opinion Hariri responded to losing the position of prime minister in an uncharacteristic manner. We would have expected him to extend his hand to new Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, not only because he has become prime minister of Leb in a legitimate manner, but also because Mikati is a respectable [political] rival.
I am aware that Hariri and his comrades are worried about the repercussions of losing the premiership for very serious reasons, including the safety of state officials who worked with him and who may now be subject to spiteful lawsuits. This is not paranoia on the part of the Hariri team but an expression of real and legitimate concerns, especially as this is something that has happened in the past. Hariri losing the premiership could also make it easier for some suspicious parties to disrupt the course of justice and obstruct the Special Tribunal for Leb. This was the fate of March 14 Alliance. When the majority of the Lebanese people voted for the March 14 alliance and it found itself in government, its opponents besieged it, and now that they have forced it from power, they will pursue its members.
This is where the role of the new Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati comes in. He is known for being a man of principle, and he previously adopted courageous positions with regards to providing Saad Hariri and his party with political cover. Mikati is widely respected in the [Lebanese] political arena, and we will observe how he handles Leb's position towards the international tribunal, particularly as this tribunal is legally binding with regards to the Lebanese government. Everybody is waiting to see how the Mikati government will deal with those who are threatening bigwigs in the previous government.
I believe that Mikati is a patriotic and respectable political figure who has not, and more importantly, will not, make unjust decisions. Mikati is well-aware that the international tribunal's objective has never been and will never be vindictive, but rather to serve justice, which is something that will ultimately ensure the security to all of Leb's politicians.
Posted by: Fred ||
01/29/2011 00:00 ||
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#2
ahh.. the CIA/NSA/NRO might blanch at this idea but hear it out...
1) Make a MMOG (Massively Multiplayer Online Game) out of hunting Binny and other AQ.
2) Put out old intel - say up to 2005 to datamine
3) Put mission tape videos from UAVs out to datamine
4) Put photos of crowds and people in Pakistan and Iran in the database
5) Videos of crowds in the database.
6) when the 67 camera UAV goes online dedicate some of the cameras to the game players.
7) Provide photos and other id for Bin and other perps.
8) allow feedback to say NSA with players full gametime action available to NSA with the feedback
(to understand how they reached their feedback point..)
Let the players add features to the game... (open source the API so they can add tools... )
It can't hurt as all the secrets come out on Wikileaks anyway...
Posted by: Water Modem ||
01/29/2011 13:31 Comments ||
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#4
Goodluck,
Don't believe that photo. It was obviously taken in Detroit!
Al
Posted by: Frozen Al ||
01/29/2011 14:47 Comments ||
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#5
I'd have been feeding information through the system long ago indicating that we have a mole amongst his top allies. Everytime we stop some event give the mole credit. Eventually if Bin Laden's alive there will be a purge.
Posted by: Redneck Jim ||
01/29/2011 7:13 Comments ||
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#5
I'm against making distinctions between "moderate" and "extremists" Muslims.
Me either. It would just confuses the reality. Much too PC. I suppose the left likes to make this distinction so they don't have to be bothered with doing anything other than wringing their hands and saying "Alas."
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