Found this via Pejmanesque. I just checked Fred's archives, this wasn't posted, unless I missed it. Might be getting interesting in that part of the world.
The people of North Korea are not as submissive as they appear to be. Unnoticed by the outside world, strong opposition to the regime of dictator Kim Jong Il is beginning to appear. SNIP
...Until now, the world has been under the impression that the North Koreans, shielded from information about the outside world, weakened by hunger and subject to the tyranny of a foolproof monitoring system, are incapable of rebelling. After all, didn't they succumb to collective hysteria in 1994 when, after living through decades of his cult of personality, they were suddenly faced with the death of Kim's father, the founder of the state, "Great Leader" Kim Il Sung? But the 22.5 million people of this country are not as submissive as they appear to be. In the bitter years of the mid-1990s, when the regime allowed up to three million people to die from malnutrition and weakness, demonstrations repeatedly flared up against the country's bizarre ruler who, with his blow-dried hair and eccentric uniforms, is partial to preaching to his exhausted citizens in so-called spontaneous lectures. Slogans against the dictator ("Down with Kim Jong Il") appeared on railroad cars, overpasses and factory walls. Flyers condemning the dynasty's unbelievable ostentation were even posted outside the Kumsusan Mausoleum in Pyongyang, where the elder Kim's embalmed body lies in state.
In a new, soon-to-be-published book about North Korea, Jasper Becker, 48, a British author and journalist living in Beijing, writes that factories, military units, and even entire towns revolted against the leadership in Pyongyang. In conversations with North Korean refugees, members of the South Korean intelligence service and scientists, Becker offers a deep, virtually unprecedented look into the secretive country. For example, Becker obtained details about the biggest labor demonstrations in North Korea's history, which took place in 1998 in the industrial city of Songrim. The protests began on a cold February morning after the public execution of eight men, all managers at the Hwanghae Iron and Steel Works. Their crime? In an effort to provide food for the workers and their families, they sold parts of the factory to Chinese businessmen.... SNIP
In "Will Iran Be Next?" James Fallows (The Atlantic Monthly, December 2004) describes a war game conducted by The Atlantic involving soldiers, spies, and diplomats, to determine how an American President could respond to Iran's push to obtain nuclear weapons.
The game's participants first determined that an Osirak-type preemptive strike would be too demanding for Israel. The game then focused on the military options available to the U.S. The commander of CENTCOM, played by a retired Air Force colonel, Sam Gardiner, who was in charge of running the simulated war game, presented a three-stage military option. The first level would be a punitive raid on key Iranian Revolutionary Guard units. At the second level, a 5-day pre-emptive air strike -- deemed a low-risk military option for the U.S., though extremely risky for Israel -- could be launched against possible nuclear facilities. At the third level of involvement, a "regime change" invasion would be mounted.
The overall plan of attack was this: a "deception" effort from the south, to distract Iranian troops; a main-force assault across the long border with Iraq; airborne and Special Forces attacks from Afghanistan and Azerbaijan; and cruise missiles from ships at sea.The overall plan of attack was this: a "deception" effort from the south, to distract Iranian troops; a main-force assault across the long border with Iraq; airborne and Special Forces attacks from Afghanistan and Azerbaijan; and cruise missiles from ships at sea.
All five of the game's participants voted to nix the regime-change plan as too risky.
The lessons of the game, according to Fallows? The United States cannot tolerate a radical regime like Iran getting its hands on nuclear weapons. Yet, it has no military option to stop Iran from getting those nuclear weapons. Nonetheless, diplomatic methods, absent a military threat, will not deter Iran from developing the weapons it seeks. So, a U.S. president can only bluff, pretending he has a military solution, when he does not, in the hope that Iran will be fooled.
Posted by: headland ||
11/15/2004 3:37:56 AM ||
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#1
What? Nuclear facilities are big and easy to detect. Iran doesn't have an airforce worth a damm. The US could bomb as many facilities as often as it liked. No invasion called for.
#2
Indeed, phil_b, the thing kinda reeks of spin and the usual MSM hand-wringing / defeatism. And to trumpet the conclusion they reached that it must be reduced to a bluff, were this dream sequence true, would be seditious and playing rather fast and loose with our national security, not to mention Israel's.
The "too risky" for Israel option (level 2) is rather absurd - they've already stated that they will attack Israel with a nuke as soon as they have it - is attempting to knock out that ability before it's viable any more risky than not doing so and allowing it to become reality - especially when dealing with insane people such as the Black Hats? I think not. 100x not.
There is no mention of level 2.5 - cooperative toppling of the regime via decap and destruction of all known or suspected nuke facilities in conjunction with an uprising of those Persians who would dearly wish to depose the Mad Mullahs... I wonder why? This is where my money would go for a real solution, time permitting. Level 2, if time did not permit.
#3
Oh Lordy. A wargame planned/conducted under the auspices of folks known to know nothing about the military. That would be a little like some of our more experienced intel/military people here at Rantburg planning a gay wedding. No matter how hard they worked to make it a reality, it's just a fantastic mess very few people could approve of.
I have not seen the article but my guess would be a LOT of options were left out in this wargame, and in fact this 'wargame' may have been just a lot of agenda pushing. It sounds like, through the description provided, that this was not much of a wargame, being played from the grand strategic level, more or less a political game rather than a 'wargame.'
We ought to be howling loud and long about the 'conclusions' gathered from the game. No military options? Please get a grip. There are always options. And Iran has been the central player in terrorist activity WORLDWIDE in the last 20 years. It is time to deal with Iran.
#4
I have read the article and am inclined to agree with .com that it is "the usual MSM hand-wringing / defeatism". After finishing it, I thought that it would be interesting to look at the last 16 years of the Atlantic, half of which was Bubba Peace and half of which was Bush War, and see the drift in the articles by Fallows during the two periods.
The article did make two points worth considering.
First, it may be pretty difficult for Israel to take out the Iraqi nuke program out through conventional airstrikes.
Second, the MSM and Blue States will do everything they can to prevent such a strike.
The article shows the Pentagon to be a palace of Power Point pushers who can't plan past killing all the enemy. It ignores the flexibility and resourcefulness the military has shown in the Afghan and Iraqi campaigns.
W has said Iran will not get nuclear weapons. Somehow, I suspect he means it. I hope the MM figure that out. Maybe they have read the election returns, but I doubt it will last.
We need to find a way to live with a nuclear Iran. That is why I suggest a strategy of publicly telling the world that it is our policy that if a nuclear device is detonated anywhere in the world by a non-state entity, we will make the rogue states of the world uninhabitable regardless of their involvement in the detonation. As they are developing these weapons in a reckless manner, they wil be held responsible for their misuse. The rogue states are...
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
11/15/2004 8:25 Comments ||
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#5
A couple of details.
It was a 3 hour "war game" that was seemed more like a combination ego enhancing role play and college bull session. The participants and their roles were David Kay, DCI, Kenneth Pollack, SecState, Reuel Marc Gerecht Sec State, (yes two) Kenneth Bacon, WH COS, and Michael Mazarr Sec Def. Mazarr is a profesor of national security at the National War College about whom I know nothing. The others, except Gerecht, have the usual pink tint one expects from the Atlantic. Gardiner was NSA. They listened to presentations by Gardiner first as DCI next as CENTCOM CinC or what ever they call CinCs now that Rumy has sunk the CinCs.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
11/15/2004 8:36 Comments ||
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#6
With apologies to Mrs D, who's all serious and everything...
I've done this. Waay back when I was the Mascot of the Spyders MC and we planned the takedown of a rival Club's HQ. The plan worked like a champ, too. We went in, all casual like, stealthy you might say, and mosied over to the pool tables real slow like a HALO jump, and then everyone grabbed a cue and started swinging - lasering everything for the bombers like. Aced the lot of 'em in about 90 seconds. I was the youngest, so I figure I wasn't a CinC, prolly just a lowly SecState or something. I only got whacked once in the leg, but delivered 3 awesome head shots. Like a Tarantino thing with the blood flying out of their misshapen mouths. They were kinda pink, yeah. Pretty cool beans for a 15 yr old punk cum stud puppy. Who'da thunk it would lead to SecState? Whoa. Twisty curvy.
Again, Mrs D, my apologies - the neural pathway just lit up so brightly I couldn't help myself.
And it was good training for wargaming the WoT enemies we're likely to face, so it's very very relevant, Em. Extra relevant.
#7
1. Israeli strat dilemma. You have to get ALL the facilities, and Israel has limited total size airforce, limited refueling, must act from bases in Israel (no carriers)etc. And 100% chance of Iranian response with whatever Iran has at the time. Not to mention massive diplomatic costs even if youre successful. Versus waiting, given that there is a real chance that the Mullahs are more self preserving than crazy, and so wont launch anytime soon, and theres a real chance theyll fall for internal reasons. Seems a reasonable judgement they )the Israelis) wont attack.
2. Ken Pollack is not quite pink tinted, and wrote a book making the case for war on Saddam, which has been widely cited, though Pollack later said he that he didnt mean to do it NOW. Pollack is still pretty much in the liberal hawk column. And of Gerecht is a solid neocon. And David Kay worked for the admin, i see no pink tint there.
3. Biggest missing thing is that between war and diplomacy - IE subversion, support for revolution. I think thats what Ledeen has been calling for, and I think thats the REAL strategy. Yet this exercise did not roleplay that. Of course its rather more difficult to "game" a revolution than a conventional war.
#8
Two things: first, always remember that deception is part of the plan. Second --Mrs D-- Iran cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons. They have already announced that they'd use nukes even if it meant the annihilation of Iran, because they really want to destroy Israel and they believe there'd still be Moslems around to continue the war on America.
Threatening Iran with destruction if they use nukes is like threatening Atta with the death penalty if he crashes the jet you're sitting in. We live in world where we cannot wait. The Bush doctrine recognizes that -- and that's why I believe WW IV will include a Battle of Iran, soon.
Bloody constraint; for if you hide the nukes
Even in your hearts, there will we rake for them:
Therefore in fierce tempest are we coming,
In thunder and in earthquake, like a Jove,
That, if requiring fail, we will compel;
And bid you, in the bowels of the Lord,
Deliver up the nukes, and to take mercy
On the poor souls for whom this hungry war
Opens his vasty jaws; and on your head
Turning the widows' tears, the orphans' cries
The dead men's blood, the pining maidens groans,
For husbands, fathers and betrothed lovers,
That shall be swallow'd in this controversy.
This is our claim, our threatening and my message;
#11
Fallows is responsible for the pre-invasion "Iraq will be the 51st state = quagmire, so better let sleeping dogs lie" meme. After he came up with that, I stopped reading the Atlantic. A pity, I'd had a subscription for several years when I was younger, and quite enjoyed it.
#12
Oh Lordy. A wargame planned/conducted under the auspices of folks known to know nothing about the military. That would be a little like some of our more experienced intel/military people here at Rantburg planning a gay wedding.
#13
The United States cannot tolerate a radical regime like Iran getting its hands on nuclear weapons. Yet, it has no military option to stop Iran from getting those nuclear weapons.
Why is the writer of this horse hockey wasting our precious oxygen?
We need to find a way to live with a nuclear Iran.
If by that, you mean how we shall one day coexist with a peaceful, non-terrorism sponsoring and productive nation called Iran that will use nuclear power generation for peaceful purposes only, I fully agree.
That is why I suggest a strategy of publicly telling the world that it is our policy that if a nuclear device is detonated anywhere in the world by a non-state entity, we will make the rogue states of the world uninhabitable regardless of their involvement in the detonation. As they are developing these weapons in a reckless manner, they wil be held responsible for their misuse.
Congratulations, Mrs. Davis. Your strategy represents one of the only other functional approaches towards establishing a credible deterrent to nuclear terrorism that I have seen at this board.
For a long time now I have been advocating a policy of retaliation in kind in the form of reciprocal response with graduated escalation through the various NBC categories. Due to Islam's pivotal role in fomenting so much of international terrorism, I have selected the Arabian shrines as targets of opportunity in this scenario.
It is difficult to find fault with your own plan for creating a retaliatory umbrella that shrouds all rogue states under the same threat of devastation. These predatory marauders need to be brought to heel and this certainly represents one way to do it.
However, I still think it is important to go out and neutralize hyper-fanatical loons like Iran. As Kalle so ably pointed out, there is no penalty severe enough to deter the Iranian mullahs from their avowed goal of annihilating Israel. An abrupt decap of Iran's entire theocracy (which I have advocated from the start) is the only realistic way of interrupting their overall game plan. Blasting the daylights out of their nuclear installations is a good start, but this sort of moral cancer must be excised completely to ensure global security.
#14
....Read Jim Dunnigan's A Quick And Dirty Guide To War to find out what happens when media tries to use even a basic wargame to prove its (pre-determined) point. The first - and most fundamental mistake they made was that wargames very rarely acknowledge political decisions except as a result of military ones. Wargames are not and should not be done except to see if a given tactical strategy works.
Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski ||
11/15/2004 12:42 Comments ||
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#15
Actually wargaming when done right, and when the inputs used are done honestly and based on real word facts and figures, is an amazing resource for military planners.
Google Zossen wargame and read about how that critical wargame played by the German High COmmand predicted Hitler's defeat at Moscow as well as the Red Army's defeat at Smolensk, Minsk, Vy'azma and Kiev.
You can also find a book about a wargame similar to the Zossen wargame played by the Russian General Staff in 1940 or 1941 which predicted the early disasters during the Barbarossa campaign. I own and have read the book but the title escapes me at the moment.
#16
What were the odds that the Atlantic was going to conduct a war game that proved a military strike by the US was the best option?
Posted by: Matt ||
11/15/2004 13:00 Comments ||
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#17
Remember how effective the world was in predicting the "Quagmire that Afghanistan would become"? The MSM, et al, used the British in the 1800's and Russia in the 1970s/80s as their basis for concluding we could (a) not subdue the country and (b) NEVER hold elections!
Plus, as others have noted, Iran is now sandwiched between TWO U.S. forces, and has a very restive populace. I don't think that populace is likely to repeat the human wave bullshit they did when fighting Iraq.
#18
A few observations:
Iran has the second most powerful military in Mideast, after Israel.
Population 69 million
Manpower 510,000
including 125,000 Revolutionary Guards
AFVs 3500
Combat aircraft 210
Military manpower:
Availability: males age 15-49: 20,937,348 (2004 est.)
Fit for military service: males age 15-49: 12,434,810 (2004 est.)
Reaching military age annually: males: 912,569 (2004 est.) This is almost 1/2 the males available in the US (2.1 mil) due to the much higher birthrate. The Iranians can quadruple their military budget just on the increased oil revenues this year.
America's first nuclear reactor was assembled under the squash courts at the University of Chicago. The faculty and students didn't have a clue. The Iranians could easily build enrichment and bomb assembly facilities underground in mines, cities, or in the middle of nowhere. All it would need are underground power lines and the occasional supply truck. We are unlikely to have a clue to the whereabouts of many of their facilities. Bombing from the air won't destroy their nuclear program.
Where are the troops going to come from that will overthrow the Mullacracy and oversee the transition to democracy? Iran's west and north ringed by mountains. It's about 300 miles from Kurdistan to Tehran, the same distance from Kuwait to Baghdad (further in road miles), but much rougher terrain. Tehran is 600 miles from the nearest port through even worse terrain, but Iran can shut down the Strait of Hormuz (and resupply) at any time. There are many thousands of troops on the Iranian side of the Strait and on the 3 islands at the mouth itself. It will take a long time to dig them out. I don't want to see a modern day Tarawa, but the costs of closing the Strait for more than a month is too high.
The die was cast 3 years ago when the US military was not doubled or tripled. We are not ready for war with Iran. Iran will go nuclear and the next war will go nuclear. Currently Athens and Volgograd are in range of Iranian missiles. In 5 years, London, Berlin and Moscow will be in range. In 10 years the Iranians are likely to have ICBMs that can reach Washington and New York. Europe and Israel are will be glassed. Even the the US won't be able to intercept all the missiles comming us if we wait too long. Talk about selling the Iranians the rope they will use to hang the ourselves (Euros, Russians, Israelis and even ourselves).
Posted by: ed ||
11/15/2004 15:15 Comments ||
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#19
'WarGames: The Iranian Theater' will be released late November in anticipation of the Christmas season.
#20
Time to get out my copy of Victory Games' Gulf Strike. Who knowsâperhaps Curt Schilling's company can work on a ME game while he rehabs his ankle.
Posted by: Eric Jablow ||
11/15/2004 18:13 Comments ||
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#21
Iran is now sandwiched between TWO U.S. forces, and has a very restive populace.
Anything short of regime change is a waste of time. It would be the 1990's in Iraq, all over again.
I'd like to know, why we haven't opened training camps for Iranians in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Northern Alliance option in Afghanistan worked better than the all foreign option in Iraq. We ought to invite Iranians to come across their borders to train to liberate their country. We could train teams for every city and town in Iran. This ought to have been started 18 months ago.
#22
JtN - Perhaps it did... Tenet... Nevermind, it didn't.
A HUGE opportunity is being squandered if actions are following politics and the subversives in place now... With the native population behind it, a regime change option is sooooo workable with a decap strike assist. Sigh. History will be very unkind to someone, not that this will matter to us or Israel if the Black Hats succeed.
#23
Iran will soon be sandwiched between two democracies - more frightening even than the U.S. Forces. Iran is at a crossroads - one road leads to a painless future with plenty of oil revenues and a future for their children the other martyrdom, starvation and pain beyond description. The US voter has made their choice and the fear of our president is forcing Iran toward the Libya option. We need to lead Iran in this direction and conserve our forces for North Korea.
#25
US Army Rangers and SPECOPS aren't going to care how many is front of them, nor how far Tehran is from the coast - we'll slaughter them all with extreme prejudice. The real glitch is, and will always be so, accuracy and reliability of information, and whether Washington is prepared for the national and geopolitical consequences - as for Iran going nuclear, it can do so anytime thanx to International- and Anti-American Arms/Tech Proliferation, espec from America's new "friend" Communist-controlled/domin FASCIST-RIGHTIST RUSSIA, et al. The STILL Communism-centric Russians are training the Iranians to operate their new reactors, so tech transfer is inevitable, and dual-purpose or milti-purpose civ-mil utility is still military. As during the Cold War and Communist proxy-surrogate states, its not necessary for the latter client states to have Pol Incorrect nukes on their soil as long as the USSR or Red China were ready, willing, and able to send them nukes overnight, and as the latter devices/systems anyways remained under direct Soviet/Chicom control even iff propagandized as indigenous or local.
Everything is *possible*. But what happened officially AFAIK is that the training camps for the Iranians against the Iranian government (aka the MEK) were *closed*.
#27
With dialecticism- and alteriorism-loving Lefties, and espec Left-based Communist Socialists, everyone is ultima EXPENDABLE no matter how loyal or collusory to Leftism, SOcilaism or Communism. For me the Russian's post-BESLAN declaration of war against Islamist Terror only means they will both protect their MERCENARIES Radical Islam, as well as stand ready to destroy Radical Islam as time and opportunity permit. And CHINA's new Muslim-non-Muslim ethnic troubles only means China officially has "justification" to do the same against Radical Islam. Per the Clinton's being dedicated enemies of their own American Left and their own country, to FRANCE acting as "moronic" as Kerry's harsh criticisms during the current POTUS elex, to elemenst of Radical Islam being willing and able to destroy themselves for the sake of anti-USA Global Socialism and OWG, is basically the geopolitical equivalent of "human wave/banzai" attacks that US Milfors have experienced from WW2 to Korea to Vietnam, "hugging the waist/belt" tactics and throwing their bodies on the barbed wire so that massive follow-on forces can get through to wipe out US positions.
#28
Israel attacking Iran doesn't really buy the US anything. To get to Iran, the IAF has to fly through Iraqi airspace, not possible without US permission.
#29
Iraqi permission, I believe - and Allawi wouldn't stand a chance in hell of being elected if it happened, with or without his knowledge, much less permission.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
