Myth of arctic meltdown: Stunning satellite images show summer ice cap is thicker and covers 1.7million square kilometres MORE than 2 years ago...despite Al Gore's prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now
Seven years after former US Vice-President Al Gore's warning, Arctic ice cap has expanded for second year in row
An area twice the size of Alaska - America's biggest state - was open water two years ago and is now covered in ice
These satellite images taken from University of Illinois's Cryosphere project show ice has become more concentrated
The speech by former US Vice-President Al Gore was apocalyptic. "The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff,"' he said. "'It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years. Seven years from now."
Those comments came in 2007 as Mr Gore accepted the Nobel Peace Prize for his campaigning on climate change. He shoulda at least put the date sometime after he would likely be dead or unnoticed.
But seven years after his warning, The Mail on Sunday can reveal that, far from vanishing, the Arctic ice cap has expanded for the second year in succession -- with a surge, depending on how you measure it, of between 43 and 63 per cent since 2012.
To put it another way, an area the size of Alaska, America's biggest state, was open water two years ago, but is again now covered by ice.
The most widely used measurements of Arctic ice extent are the daily satellite readings issued by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, which is co-funded by Nasa. These reveal that -- while the long-term trend still shows a decline -- last Monday, August 25, the area of the Arctic Ocean with at least 15 per cent ice cover was 5.62 million square kilometres.
This was the highest level recorded on that date since 2006 (see graph, right), and represents an increase of 1.71 million square kilometres over the past two years -- an impressive 43 per cent.
Other figures from the Danish Meteorological Institute suggest that the growth has been even more dramatic. Using a different measure, the area with at least 30 per cent ice cover, these reveal a 63 per cent rise -- from 2.7 million to 4.4 million square kilometres.
The satellite images published here are taken from a further authoritative source, the University of Illinois's Cryosphere project.
They show that as well as becoming more extensive, the ice has grown more concentrated, with the purple areas -- denoting regions where the ice pack is most dense -- increasing markedly.
Crucially, the ice is also thicker, and therefore more resilient to future melting. Professor Andrew Shepherd, of Leeds University, an expert in climate satellite monitoring, said yesterday: "It is clear from the measurements we have collected that the Arctic sea ice has experienced a significant recovery in thickness over the past year.
"It seems that an unusually cool summer in 2013 allowed more ice to survive through to last winter. This means that the Arctic sea ice pack is thicker and stronger than usual, and this should be taken into account when making predictions of its future extent."
Yet for years, many have been claiming that the Arctic is in an 'irrevocable death spiral', with imminent ice-free summers bound to trigger further disasters. These include gigantic releases of methane into the atmosphere from frozen Arctic deposits, and accelerated global warming caused by the fact that heat from the sun will no longer be reflected back by the ice into space.
Judith Curry, professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, said last night: "The Arctic sea ice spiral of death seems to have reversed."
Those who just a few years ago were warning of ice-free summers by 2014 included US Secretary of State John Kerry, who made the same bogus prediction in 2009, while Mr Gore has repeated it numerous times -- notably in a speech to world leaders at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009, in an effort to persuade them to agree a new emissions treaty.
Mr Gore -- whose office yesterday failed to respond to a request for comment -- insisted then: "There is a 75 per cent chance that the entire polar ice cap during some of the summer months could be completely ice-free within five to seven years."
Misleading as such forecasts are, some people continue to make them. Only last month, while giving evidence to a House of Lords Select Committee inquiry on the Arctic, Cambridge University's Professor Peter Wadhams claimed that although the Arctic is not ice-free this year, it will be by September 2015.
Asked about this yesterday, he said: "I still think that it is very likely that by mid-September 2015, the ice area will be less than one million square kilometres -- the official designation of ice-free, implying only a fringe of floes around the coastlines. That is where the trend is taking us."
For that prediction to come true it would require by far the fastest loss of ice in history. It would also fly in the face of a report last year by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which stated with 'medium confidence' that ice levels would 'likely' fall below one million square kilometres by 2050.
Politicians such as Al Gore have often insisted that climate science is 'settled' and have accused those who question their forecasts of being climate change 'deniers'.
However, while few scientists doubt that carbon-dioxide emissions cause global warming, and that this has caused Arctic ice to decline, there remains much uncertainty about the speed of melting and how much of it is due to human activity. But outside the scientific community, the more pessimistic views have attracted most attention. For example, Prof Wadhams's forecasts have been cited widely by newspapers and the BBC. But many reject them.
Yesterday Dr Ed Hawkins, who leads an Arctic ice research team at Reading University, said: "Peter Wadhams's views are quite extreme compared to the views of many other climate scientists, and also compared to what the IPCC report says."
Dr Hawkins warned against reading too much into ice increase over the past two years on the grounds that 2012 was an 'extreme low', triggered by freak weather.
"'I'm uncomfortable with the idea of people saying the ice has bounced back," he said.
However, Dr Hawkins added that the decline seen in recent years was not caused only by global warming. It was, he said, intensified by 'natural variability' -- shifts in factors such as the temperature of the oceans. This, he said, has happened before, such as in the 1920s and 1930s, when "there was likely some sea ice retreat".
Dr Hawkins said: "There is undoubtedly some natural variability on top of the long-term downwards trend caused by the overall warming. This variability has probably contributed somewhat to the post-2000 steep declining trend, although the human-caused component still dominates."
Like many scientists, Dr Hawkins said these natural processes may be cyclical. If and when they go into reverse, they will cool, not warm, the Arctic, in which case, he said, "a decade with no declining trend" in ice cover would be "entirely plausible".
Peer-reviewed research suggests that at least until 2005, natural variability was responsible for half the ice decline. But exactly how big its influence is remains an open question -- and as both Dr Hawkins and Prof Curry agreed, establishing this is critical to making predictions about the Arctic's future.
Prof Curry said: "I suspect that the portion of the decline in the sea ice attributable to natural variability could be even larger than half.
"I think the natural variability component of Arctic sea ice extent is in the process of bottoming out, with a reversal to start within the next decade. And when it does, the reversal period could last for several decades."
This led her to believe that the IPCC forecast, like Al Gore's, was too pessimistic.
"Ice-free in 2050 is a possible scenario, but I don't think it is a likely scenario," she concluded.
#4
"However, while few scientists doubt that carbon-dioxide emissions cause global warming"
Uh, er, no.
Ditto for the "portion of ice decrease caused by natural variability".
I must have missed where "science" was able, on the basis of just about no data (compared to what is required for statistical supposition and hypothesis testing in every other branch of inquiry), to actually fully characterize just what makes climate change (as it has since there was an atmosphere).
Without this, there is no possible logical basis to define "natural" vs. anthropogenic contributions to the process, or processes, or system, or system of systems.
Are these people ever challenged to demonstrate the logical and empirical basis for these breezy presumptions that in fact are gigantic logical fallacies, and are which the entire basis for "man-made climate change"? I see this over and over - "skeptics" who, nonetheless, believe "man DOES contribute" to climate change.
Why? How? On what logical and empirical basis - and here a robust and full characterization of the actual processes at work is requisite - do they "sorta kinda think man's gotta have somethin' to do with it"?
I realize, given how effectively dumbed-down and corrupted the culture and society are, that I should never expect such transparently sloppy and illogical argumentation to even get noticed, much less deconstructed.
#5
few scientists doubt that carbon-dioxide emissions cause global warming
I believe that statement is true, as far as it goes. The uncertainty is in 'how much' global warming? Is it a large fraction of a large amount or a small fraction of a small amount (or even just 'less cooling'?)
#6
Up until recent times people heated themselves by burning coal and wood. London used to be covered with soot. How much pollution was produced by a smaller population burning a lot more wood? They didn't have gas or electric heaters in the Middle Ages that I've ever heard of.
When I was a boy we had a coal stove and we had a ton of coal delivered in the fall. So did most of the other houses in the neighborhood. When it got going good my granddaddy's furnace would have smelted steel.
Since 1970 we've been cleaning up emissions. Cars don't put out the gunk the '57 Chevy produced as you were seeing the USA. Major industry has shut down--you don't see the sky dark from smokestacks anymore. Pittsburgh and Wheeling are now visible from miles away. The first time I was in Los Angeles my eyes tried to wash right out of my head and you couldn't see the sky.
So now things are worse?
Posted by: Fred ||
08/31/2014 23:30 Comments ||
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[BLOOMBERG] Burials of people who have died of Ebola are taking as long as five days in Liberia as a shortage of ambulances and fuel compound the fear and isolation that are stoking the worst outbreak of the virus on record.
A lack of vehicles and a fuel shortage are also hampering the ability of the World Health Organization and its allies to reach affected communities and investigate new cases, said Rick Brennan, director of the WHO's department of emergency risk management and humanitarian response.
"Getting those activities running in the counties requires a lot of vehicles and fuel, and both of those are in short supply," Brennan said by phone from Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, which has the highest corpse count in the current outbreak at 694. "The roads here really beat up the vehicles, so they don't have a long shelf-life."
Posted by: Fred ||
08/31/2014 00:00 ||
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[2 views]
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#1
so refreshing to see the WHO quoted... with a budget of $4.27 billion the WHO have now watched as ebola spread from a few Guinean villagers in February to infect six african countries and thousands of people.
thank you, WHO for not bothering to stomp on ebola back in February
and for never issuing a travel restriction advice as the virus grew and spread to the cities and towns and then started catching planes
#2
A scary Ebola epidemic is a perfect talking point for demanding an increase in the WHO budget. Nipping such an epidemic in the bud is so obviously unhelpful to that point that we cannot expect WHO to attempt to do such nipping. You should not be surprised that it did nothing.
Did you really expect that WHO would take time off from its busy schedule of issuing bonus awards to its officers and scheduling celebratory parties, to prevent this crisis and the bonanza for the WHO it portends?
On an overcast Monday afternoon, officers in bulletproof vests swept into a house on Houston's north side. The armed deputies and agents served a search warrant. They carted away computers, hard drives and documents. This was in 2010, it says several paragraphs down. The timing of this article, however, has nothing to do with the upcoming election race pitting Wendy Davis against current AG Greg Abbott. Nothing at all.
The raid targeted a voter registration group called Houston Votes, which was accused of election fraud. It was initiated by investigators for Attorney General Greg Abbott. His aides say he is duty-bound to preserve the integrity of the ballot box. Can't he just ignore the laws the Democrats don't like?
His critics, however, say that what Abbott has really sought to preserve is the power of the Republican Party in Texas. They accuse him of political partisanship, targeting key Democratic voting blocs, especially minorities and the poor, in ways that make it harder for them to vote, or for their votes to count. If the Dems are going to take over, they should at least do it lawfully.
A close examination of the Houston Votes case reveals the consequences when an elected official pursues hotly contested allegations of election fraud. Consider that a warning of the slant of the rest of the article.
The investigation was closed one year after the raid, with no charges filed. But for Houston Votes, the damage was done. Its funding dried up, and its efforts to register more low-income voters ended. Its records and office equipment never were returned. Instead, under a 2013 court order obtained by Abbott�'s office, they were destroyed. That's interesting. Maybe that's what set the precedent for Lois Lerner?
A Rice University study of census data found that between 2000 and 2010, the Houston metropolitan area added 1.2 million people �-- more than any other urban region in the U.S. Some of them were probably Katrina relocatees, living off the Texas dole instead of the Louisiana dole.
Nearly 70 percent of Harris County�'s residents are Hispanic, black or Asian. Those racial groups are driving population growth, said Richard Murray, a political science professor at the University of Houston. The number of whites has declined to 33 percent, according to census data.
Studies have reached different conclusions about the effect of Voter ID laws on turnout across the nation. Depending, it would seem, on which position they wanted to support.
The strictest measures lowered turnout among less educated and lower-income citizens �-- for both minorities and whites, according to a 2008 study led by a California Institute of Technology professor.
But earlier this year, Judicial Watch, a conservative group, released a study showing that turnout increased after North Carolina�'s Voter ID law took effect, especially among black voters.
Voter registration drives that use paid workers have fallen prey to fraudulent applications being submitted intentionally, according to a report by the Brennan Center for Justice. Whoa! Good thing there are no O'care workers paid to enroll folks. Right?
"These forms actually defraud the voter registration drives, which compensate workers on the expectation that their time will be spent registering new and eligible citizens; the worker herself is interested not in defrauding the government, but in getting credit for work she didn't do," the study said. Which - coincidentally! - defrauds the Government.
In late 2013, Abbott's office asked judges in Harris and Travis counties for permission to destroy the records seized in the two raids. The request said records contained the names of people who were not suspects, partial Social Security numbers and forged voter registration applications. So the judges said "O.K." and the records were destroyed. Not quite so partisan/ominous at the end of the article as it seemed at the beginning.
Posted by: Bobby ||
08/31/2014 14:24 ||
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#1
between 2000 and 2010, the Houston metropolitan area added 1.2 million people more than any other urban region in the U.S.
Nearly 70 percent of Harris Countys residents are Hispanic, black or Asian.
Though there is a lot of overlap, Harris County is not exactly the same as the Houston Metropolitan Area - I get suspicious of reporters who compare apples with oranges, while pretending they are not; just what are they hiding/misrepresenting?
As Bobby points out, the role of Katrina evacuees was significant - were they in Harris or GHMA? (Harris, methinks.) Oil industry boom has moved a lot of actual working people in (almost impossible to find a 'normal' single-family house on the market these days) - were they in Harris, or GHMA (GHMA, methinks.)
#3
"If the Dems are going to take over, they should at least do it lawfully."
Why? They never have before.
Posted by: Barbara ||
08/31/2014 18:21 Comments ||
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#4
The investigation was closed one year after the raid, with no charges filed. But for Houston Votes, the damage was done. Its funding dried up, and its efforts to register more low-income voters ended.
Ah, gee. Isn't that the same tactic the IRS used against the Tea Party organizations? That is using the power of a government agency to suppress voter organizations? Pot, Kettle. What screams louder than a pig caught in the fence? Two pigs.
The European Union readied a fresh wave of sanctions against Russia on Saturday with warnings that the escalating crisis in Ukraine was putting all of Europe at risk of conflict.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said as he visited Brussels to plead with EU leaders for tougher measures that Kiev and Moscow were on the verge of "full-scale war".
Fears of a wider confrontation spiralled after claims that Russia has sent troops to help fight a new offensive by pro-Kremlin rebels that has wrested several southeastern Ukrainian towns from Kiev's control.
EU Commission head Jose Manuel Barroso warned that the crisis was near a "point of no return" and said Brussels had drawn up new sanctions against the Kremlin that the 28 leaders would discuss at their summit on Saturday.
Oh my, Cruz has just set up a serious dilemma . . . .
Ted Cruz brought his anti-Washington crusade to Americans for Prosperity's Defending the Dream summit in Dallas on Saturday.
"I spent last week in Washington, D.C," he said. "It's great to be back in America." Barry Goldwater, the late Arizona senator who upended the Republican establishment, and to whom Cruz has often been compared, couldn't have said it better.
The Texas senator threw the sharpest elbows, however, at President Obama. Six months ago, Obamacare was the dominant issue shaping key Senate races, but in a sign of how the political ground has shifted, Cruz predicted they would be a "national referendum on amnesty." Though many have speculated about the brewing rivalry between Cruz and his fellow Texan, Governor Rick Perry, with both eyeing a presidential bid in 2016, Cruz offered praise for Perry's decision to deploy National Guard troops to the secure the border.
And he invited the president to the Texas border -- to play golf. Addressing reporters after his speech, he dwelled further on the theme. "It almost seems like the PGA oughta put him on retainer," he said. "I don't know about you, but I've never known anyone who plays that much golf. It's almost like he doesn't have a job, like he's retired or something." He does have a job. It pays for his green fees.
The Cruz who showed up in Dallas played to the right flank of the Republican party that rocketed him to national fame, continuing to defend his push last year to shut down the federal government. "As a result of that fight," he said, the president's "popularity has plummeted," and he told reporters he still believes Obamacare will be repealed. That's a reversal for Cruz, who argued the government shutdown was necessary because once an entitlement program took root, people would become addicted to it. Now, he is singing a different tune. "Any student of military history knows wars are not typically won in the first skirmish," he said Saturday.
Asked about the Republican governors who have agreed to the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion, including some of his potential 2016 rivals like Indiana governor Mike Pence, he said he would "urge any governor not to be complicit in the disaster."
Cruz also made clear he'll position himself on the hawkish end of the party's foreign-policy spectrum which, in a potential 2016 matchup, will put him at odds with his fellow tea-party superstar Rand Paul. He told the crowd on Saturday that the U.S. should bomb the Islamic State "back to the Stone Age" and mused that the "Obama diet" is simply letting Russian president Vladimir Putin "eat your lunch every day."
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Myth of arctic meltdown: Stunning satellite images show summer ice cap is thicker and covers 1.7million square kilometres MORE than 2 years ago...despite Al Gore's prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now
The speech by former US Vice-President Al Gore was apocalyptic. "The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff,"' he said. "'It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years. Seven years from now."
This was the highest level recorded on that date since 2006 (see graph, right), and represents an increase of 1.71 million square kilometres over the past two years -- an impressive 43 per cent.
"It seems that an unusually cool summer in 2013 allowed more ice to survive through to last winter. This means that the Arctic sea ice pack is thicker and stronger than usual, and this should be taken into account when making predictions of its future extent."
Misleading as such forecasts are, some people continue to make them. Only last month, while giving evidence to a House of Lords Select Committee inquiry on the Arctic, Cambridge University's Professor Peter Wadhams claimed that although the Arctic is not ice-free this year, it will be by September 2015.
Politicians such as Al Gore have often insisted that climate science is 'settled' and have accused those who question their forecasts of being climate change 'deniers'.
"Ice-free in 2050 is a possible scenario, but I don't think it is a likely scenario," she concluded.
[BLOOMBERG] Burials of people who have died of Ebola are taking as long as five days in Liberia as a shortage of ambulances and fuel compound the fear and isolation that are stoking the worst outbreak of the virus on record.
The European Union readied a fresh wave of sanctions against Russia on Saturday with warnings that the escalating crisis in Ukraine was putting all of Europe at risk of conflict.
Cruz also made clear he'll position himself on the hawkish end of the party's foreign-policy spectrum which, in a potential 2016 matchup, will put him at odds with his fellow tea-party superstar Rand Paul. He told the crowd on Saturday that the U.S. should bomb the Islamic State "back to the Stone Age" and mused that the "Obama diet" is simply letting Russian president Vladimir Putin "eat your lunch every day."
