[Chosun Ilbo] North Korea has heightened the level of provocations against South Korea because it has found the weak spot that prevents South Korea, the U.S. and China from acting, experts speculated Wednesday.
"The regime must have judged that there would be no counterattack that could threaten it" no matter how many artillery shells it rained on Yeonpyeong Island, because South Korea and the war-weary U.S. do not want the Korean Peninsula engulfed in a conflict, and China does not want the North to collapse, a South Korean security official speculated.
◆ South Korean Indecisiveness
In January, the North fired about 100 coastal artillery shells at Baeknyeong and Daecheong islands but not beyond the Northern Limit Line, the de-facto maritime border. At the time, South Korean officials threatened firm retaliation.
But in August, when some of about 130 North Korean coastal artillery shells landed in waters off Baeknyeong and Yeonpyeong islands well past the NLL, Seoul again only vowed to counterattack, "if their shells land on our territory." The South had remained on the defensive, so the North apparently felt it could attack Yeonpyeong Island with impunity, experts say.
The first reaction from Cheong Wa Dae to the attack on the island was that it does not want an escalation.
Prof. Lee Jo-won of Chungang University said, "The North launched such a bold provocation because it knew how afraid the South is of a war" and noticed that South Korea's rules of engagement softened during the previous administrations that pursued the Sunshine Policy of rapprochement.
◆ U.S. Paralysis
In the fist North Korean nuclear crisis in the early 1990s, the North was afraid of an attack from the U.S., which did at one time consider a "surgical strike" on the Yongbyon nuclear facility.
Prof. Kim Sung-han of Korea University said, "The North now has about 10 nuclear bombs but the U.S. doesn't know where they are, so it would be difficult to launch the kind of a surgical strike that was considered in the 1990s."
The North recently showed a uranium enrichment facility with hundreds of centrifuges to a U.S. expert and may have more elsewhere. The North also gambled that the U.S. is overstretched in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and will not get involved in another.
Prof. Yoon Duk-min of the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security pointed out that the area around the NLL is under the South Korean military's control, so the North believes there will be no counterattack from the U.S. if no damage is done to American soldiers or citizens.
◆ Chinese Preference for the Status Quo
North Korean hereditary supremo Kim Jong-il huddled closer to China with two visits to his country's most powerful ally last year alone. After the North torpedoed the South Korean Navy corvette Cheonan in March, Beijing stuck up for Pyongyang.
"China wouldn't abandon the North even if it was embarrassed by the regime's recent shenanigans," said Prof. Kim Hung-kyu of Sungshin Women's University.
The last thing China wants to see would be the collapse of the regime and consequent instability in Northeast Asia. "China should shut down the pipeline to the North to force it to calm down, but it would never do such a thing. Kim Jong-il knows all too well that China would never forsake him," the security official said.
Posted by: Fred ||
12/08/2010 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[1 views]
Top|| File under: Commies
#1
China has tried to get rid of the Kim's before. They would be happy to do it again.
Sleep tight Kim Jong-un.
Posted by: Mike Ramsey ||
12/08/2010 6:16 Comments ||
Top||
The Sisters are not too impressed with Naomi When a Feminist Trivializes Rape
Dear Interpol:
As a longtime feminist activist, I have been overjoyed to discover your new commitment to engaging in global manhunts to arrest and prosecute men who behave like narcissistic jerks to women they are dating.
I see that Julian Assange is accused of having consensual sex with two women, in one case using a condom that broke. I understand, from the alleged victims' complaints to the media, that Assange is also accused of texting and tweeting in the taxi on the way to one of the women's apartments while on a date, and, disgustingly enough, 'reading stories about himself online' in the cab.
Both alleged victims are also upset that he began dating a second woman while still being in a relationship with the first. (Of course, as a feminist, I am also pleased that the alleged victims are using feminist-inspired rhetoric and law to assuage what appears to be personal injured feelings. That's what our brave suffragette foremothers intended!).
Thank you again, Interpol. I know you will now prioritize the global manhunt for 1.3 million guys I have heard similar complaints about personally in the US alone -- there is an entire fraternity at the University of Texas you need to arrest immediately. I also have firsthand information that John Smith in Providence, Rhode Island, went to a stag party -- with strippers! -- that his girlfriend wanted him to skip, and that Mark Levinson in Corvallis, Oregon, did not notice that his girlfriend got a really cute new haircut -- even though it was THREE INCHES SHORTER.
#1
anon1 stopping by for yet another 3000 word missive on how her fellow Australian is getting screwed by the Swedes, loyal puppets of the CIA, and how anyone who can't see that is a freedom hatin' moron, Kenyan body counts be damned, in 5.....4.....3....2....
#3
Funny how the shoe would be precisely on the other foot had Assange been an enemy of the left. His rape would have been him living out his imperialist tendencies, and the governments of the world were right to bring him in on whatever charges would stick, blah blah blah. Like Al Capone went to prison for tax evasion.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[Chosun Ilbo] North Korea has heightened the level of provocations against South Korea because it has found the weak spot that prevents South Korea, the U.S. and China from acting, experts speculated Wednesday. 
