According to a report, around New Year's day officers in two Chinese air force units were arrested on suspicion of plotting a coup. At the same time, a nuclear submarine on patrol was ordered back to port because some on board were thought to have links with the plotters. This report, circulated on [January 8] on a China-watching listserv, remains unconfirmed. This rumor could be linked in some fashion to the detention last month of Colonel Tan Linshu, of the Chinese navy, for subversion.
A coup at first glance seems inconceivable, but there has been an evident erosion in civilian control of the Chinese military in recent years. The most important manifestation of this breakdown is that colonels and flag officers have begun openly criticizing civilian leaders and are now speaking out on matters once considered the exclusive province of diplomats. Moreover, civilians have increasingly relied on troops of the People's Liberation Army and the semi-military People's Armed Police to maintain order.
It is, however, one thing to have a strong military and another to have a coup. At one time, the People's Republic was rife with coup rumors, especially when Lin Biao appeared to lead an unsuccessful attempt to unseat Mao Zedong in 1971. Since then, generals and admirals have given virtually no indication that they possessed grand political ambitions. Now, things look like they are changing. There have been too many reminders in the Chinese state media that "the Party controls the gun"--that the PLA reports to civilians--to think that this has not become an issue. So was there a coup attempt in China in the last two weeks? Even if there was not, talk of a military takeover indicates someone is trying to destabilize the regime.
#2
Sounds like a purge in the military to me. They have several that speak of the future of China and its people. Not just power. The idea that government can stiffle development and creativity.
These are smart people who in my opinion think creatively. To some they are a threat. Soon we will see if heads will roll. Why they would speak the truth or have a diffrent opinion in that enviornment is beyond me.
#3
The Japanese militarists didn't succeed the first time they tried, either. And Hitler's Munich caucus didn't work out too well. Practice, practice, practice.
The real question for China is whether the center will hold or the place falls apart into strongholds of competing war lords. In either case, it will be bad news for China, Norks and Paks but it is unclear whether it will be bad news for any one else
#5
Civilian control is via the purse strings. Since the Chinese military owns their own manufacturing companies and therefore earns money independently of the civilian budgets, what really is there to keep them in line? The Chinese party's secret police? Maybe the Chinese gestapo should look up from the assault on Falun Gong.
Posted by: Mike Ramsey ||
01/13/2012 9:05 Comments ||
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#6
The devil you know against the devil that you don't know.
#7
For a long time now there has been concern that some of the most powerful regional military commanders have become de facto warlord-princes (N.B. with nuclear weapons at their command).
This really started to gripe when some of these commanders decided that their commands should be hereditary, their sons having been promoted by them to be on their command staff as their ranking subordinates.
#8
Follow the money. As long as the political leaders are increasing the funding of the military and upgrading its capabilities, they don't seriously believe the military is a political threat. When you start seeing them cutting the size of the military, then they are afraid.
#9
I believe it was POTUS Reagan whom said or inferred it best -[paraph] once people get a taste(s) of freedom, good or bad they will want more + demand changes.
The CPC/CCP has times worried about how long the Chinese Commie-Socialist model can withstand the combo of pressures to nationally modernize while resisting the Western-style democratic or liberatrian flexibities required to induce suc modernizations.
EVEN TOP GENERALS + ADMIRALS LIKE $$$, GOOD LIFE, + ULTRA-MODERN = LATEST FIREPOWER.
[Dawn] TUESDAY`S kaboom in Jamrud in Khyber Agency was yet another incident that pointed to the risks of the government`s use of lashkars to keep the peace in parts of Fata and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. ... formerly NWFP, still Terrorism Central... The blast, in which at least 30 people are reported to have died, appears to have targeted members of the pro-government Zakakhel tribe, which has long been in conflict with Mangal Bagh ...a former bus driver, now head of the Deobandi bandido group Lashkar-e-Islam and the Terror of Khyber Agency... `s Lashkar-i-Islam.
Despite denials by the Taliban, it may also have been carried out in retaliation for recent military action in Khyber Agency in which Tehrik-i-Taliban operatives were killed.
The lack of clarity about where responsibility lies points to the multiple fault lines that have emerged in Khyber, partly as a result of the lashkar concept.
Regardless of who was behind the blast, the victims were members of a tribe seen as an enemy because it supports the state. And despite the reduction in the number of terrorist attacks last year, this was not an isolated event. The last major terrorist incident before it an attack on a funeral in Lower Dir in September 2011 alsotargeted members of an anti-Taliban militia.
Tuesday`s blast raises the same questions thon the lam-scale attacks on lashkars in places like Adezai outside Beautiful Downtown Peshawar and Orakzai and Bajaur agencies have in the past: government-backed militias worsen tribal rivalries and leave local populations vulnerable, especially when security forces withdraw after short-term gains. Given that they consist of area residents who have a stake in peace in their areas, they can be useful, as when they were revived in 2008 to fight the Taliban insurgency. But once government forces leave after initial successes they are left at the mercy of better-equipped and more ruthless thugs, as was seen in Malakand where, when the military had withdrawn, citizens were killed for backing the government. Tuesday`s attack demonstrates, once again, that in areas where gunnies are still able to act, lashkars need to be replaced by security forces. At the same time, while in principle we oppose the concept of raising lashkars, until the security forces are able to take over they should be given better protection.
Posted by: Fred ||
01/13/2012 00:00 ||
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According to a report, around New Year's day officers in two Chinese air force units were arrested on suspicion of plotting a coup. At the same time, a nuclear submarine on patrol was ordered back to port because some on board were thought to have links with the plotters. This report, circulated on [January 8] on a China-watching listserv, remains unconfirmed. This rumor could be linked in some fashion to the detention last month of Colonel Tan Linshu, of the Chinese navy, for subversion.
