Russia will never, ever give up Crimea without a fight. Anyone that thinks otherwise is just being delusional. The Russian Black Sea fleet's main base at Sevastopol is far too strategically important. In addition, ethnic Russians make up approximately 60 percent of the population of Crimea, and most of the population is rabidly pro-Russian. In fact, many prominent Crimean politicians are already calling for reunification with Russia. So if you have been thinking that Russia is just going to fold up shop and go home now that pro-European protesters have violently seized power in Kiev, you can quit holding your breath. The truth is that Russia is more than willing to fight a war over Crimea. And considering the fact that vitally important pipelines that pump natural gas from Russia to the rest of Europe go right through Ukraine, it is not likely that Russia will just willingly hand the rest of Ukraine over to the U.S. and the EU either. If the U.S. and the EU push too hard in Ukraine, a major regional war may erupt which could ultimately lead to something much larger.
Russia and Ukraine have very deep historical ties. Most Americans may not think that Ukraine is very important, but the Russians consider Ukraine to be of the utmost strategic importance.
As an American, how would you feel if another nation funded and organized the violent overthrow of the democratically-elected Canadian government and replaced it with a government that was virulently anti-American?
By doing this to Ukraine, the United States and the EU are essentially sticking a pin in Russia's eye. Needless to say, Russia is extremely angry at this point and they are gearing up for war.
The following are 12 signs that Russia is ready to fight a war over Crimea...
#1
Huge error: the Ukranians rebelled themselves, no us EU involvement. Does the author genuinely believe that this administration would actually actively do something that bold? Obama? Come on. The author is clearly self-deluded and paranoid. But then again, so are many Russians, apparently.
Ukraine has fractured along ethnic lines due to Putins Russian buddy and his criminal cohorts, who were becoming more and more dictatorial whilst looting the national treasury. The Russians have nobody to blame but themselves, the stupid strong-man worshiping fools.
And there will be no contesting the Crimea. It's an anomaly, and should not be part of Ukraine. Khrushchev just tacked it on there as a political gift; Crimean return to Russian association is simply reversing that historical error.
Damned Russians and Euros are still tribal below the surface, just like the African, Arabs, afghanis, etc. the only difference seems to be the latter wear their tribalism openly.
#3
What will happen, given how inept the Obama administration is, is a plebiscite will be held, and the Crimea will vote itself out of the Ukranian federation, and into the Russian federation. Same goes for the Russian majority eastern provinces. No war needed. Just like the diplomats and Democrats want.
What's left of the Ukraine is a fiscal basket case that the West has to bail out, and which Putin can manipulate via trade and threats. In the end Putin gets defacto control and the west is stuck with the bill.
Why did this happen? Obama was not paying attention months ago when this started looking serious, and years ago when the wheels fell off politically and economically. Proper action then would have averted this whole mess. But there was nothing in it for Obama to glorify himself, nor to beat up republicans with, so he ignored it. And the press continues to cover for this Stupid son of a bitch.
I would replace 'stupid" with "vicious, malicious and woefully ignorant", but otherwise, yeah what OS said on all counts.
Russia has always been touchy about what goes on at the borders of the motherland, and with good historical reason. To think they would back away from this due to stern finger-wagging is delusional.
#6
As an American, how would you feel if another nation funded and organized... the democratically-elected Canadian government and replaced it with a government that was virulently anti-American?
#7
What do they mean if a war...isn't that already established. Just because nobody is shooting means nothing.
Russian interest in the Crimea goes back to, what, the 1500s, and is considered so strategic they have fought to the last man twice (Crimean War, WW II) to hold that territory. Its their best place to maintain ships in the Black Sea, its a natural campaign launch point, and after being rebuilt post WW II Sevastopal also wears a hat of military history monument & rememberance.
#8
..with an American President playing watching a game way above his abilities..Joe Biden looks better every day..nah, Cmdr. Zero will never step aside (maybe we could give him Air Force One to sweeten the deal?)..
#9
Again, I'm with Old Spook on this one. Which is why, if I were a) President b) General Secretary of the UN c) Chancellor of Germany or d) a movie star --
-- I'd be working to offer Crimea and eastern Ukraine a peaceful, amicable divorce from the rest, much the way Czechoslovakia separated. You don't want to be part of us? No problem, sign here.
Crimea has been Russian for 400 years. It was glued to the Ukraine in the early 50s as realpolitik -- so as to ensure that the returning Tatars and Cossacks (that Stalin had forcibly removed before) wouldn't run things, by having the "politically reliable" Ukrainians in charge.
Well, they aren't so reliable any more. Attach the Crimea and east to Russia and let the west go their own way. Let them join the EU, that will guarantee their powerlessness and impotence.
Posted by: Steve White ||
03/01/2014 12:32 Comments ||
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#10
If you really want to make 'them' pay for this, repeal the law prohibiting the export of oil and gas from the US and unleash the private development and exploitation of our own resources. It'll drive the price of their export cash cow to the basement. Just like hitting the ME money sources of terrorism. Take away the oil leverage and what do they have with the rest of the world?
#13
Just to make it more interesting, perhaps some advanced satellite imagery and signals intelligence could be provided the struggling rebels in Syria.
The same could be provided to other Former Soviet Union (FSU) members, just to calm jittery nerves....that sort of thing. Discreet assistance could also be provided Chechnyan groups as well.
#14
Meanwhile, in Moscow, the Tass Agency had published a statement in the early morning alleging that party and government leaders in Czechoslovakia had asked the Soviet Union and other allied States to render the fraternal Czechoslovak people urgent assistance, including assistance with armed forces. The Tass statement continued:
This request was brought about by the threat which has arisen to the socialist system in Czechoslovakia, a threat emanating from the counter-revolutionary forces which have entered into collusion with foreign forces hostile to socialism.
Posted by: European Conservative ||
03/01/2014 14:51 Comments ||
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#16
No g(r)om, not on that [nation building] scale. Vlad's winning does not necessarily mean everyone else has to lose. Just enuf gamesmanship to anger Vlad, make him think about his actions, and ensure he knows there is a price to pay. Other clandestine remedies could also be applied, but they are a bit too sinister for this forum.
#17
Besoeker, your forces' in Afghanistan resupply and, eventual, evacuation depends on Russia's good will. In other words "if you were stupid enough to stick your d*ck in a meat grinder, don't annoy the guy with his finger on the button".
#20
I don't have time for debating societies or discussions regarding the proper height of a mechitzah. I'm just a common lad, but I know a thing or two about logistics in that region. Please just take my word for it g(r)om. You don't need a Russian solution.
#25
As an American, how would you feel if another nation funded and organized the violent overthrow of the democratically-elected Canadian government and replaced it with a government that was virulently anti-American?
Hmm, I've already watched them subvert and more or less impose a non-democratic, totalitarian government in Venezuela over the last decade and a half (or more, the process started even before 9/11).
[DAWN] UNTIL intelligence-led efforts to uproot sectarian militancy start delivering results, faith-based killings will only grow in Bloody Karachi ...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous... and add to the already lethal mix of violence in the metropolis. Thursday was an example of the kind of almost calculated sectarian bloodshed that can engulf the city within a short span of time. Within a few hours, at least nine people had been killed, on what appeared to be largely sectarian grounds. A Shia scholar and two Sunni madressah caretakers were among the victims. It is unclear whether these were tit-for-tat murders or the work of some other elements determined to push Karachi into communal strife. What is clear, though, is that Thursday's body count reflects a failure of both the intelligence apparatus as well as the much-touted operation that began last September to cleanse the metropolis of violent groups and criminals.
Whenever such attacks take place, the police give almost rehearsed statements blaming the bloodshed on the 'ongoing wave of assassinations'. For the most part, the case is considered closed after assigning murders to the assassination pile. It is fair to assume that deep down inside, the intelligence agencies know where the hubs of sectarian militancy in Karachi are located. Hence what is needed is an intelligence-led operation that targets these hubs. Simply sending in the police or Rangers into a locality in the name of an operation won't do. It must also be noted that it is usually the supporters and sympathisers of banned groups -- the small fry -- that are rounded up, while the killers and criminal masterminds are rarely caught by the law enforcers. And if a 'third force' is at work, what have the authorities done so far to unmask the perpetrators? Indeed, sectarian violence has replaced ethnic bloodshed as Karachi's number one law and order headache. The city is home to all schools of thought and ethno-linguistic communities and has become the biggest sectarian flashpoint in the country. Any faith-based violence here has an impact nationally, and vice versa. The city has seen enough lives snuffed out simply on the basis of the victims' religious beliefs. It is time the state addressed this major security challenge before the situation implodes.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/01/2014 00:00 ||
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[DAWN] Beautiful Downtown Peshawar ...capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province), administrative and economic hub for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Peshawar is situated near the eastern end of the Khyber Pass, convenient to the Pak-Afghan border. Peshawar has evolved into one of Pakistan's most ethnically and linguistically diverse cities, which means lots of gunfire. to Chaman and Quetta to Islamabad, with likely many unknown places in between, a spate of mysterious killings of Afghans in Pakistain has been taking place. The most recent death was in Chaman, where an Afghan customs official believed to be close to an Afghan government commander was killed on Thursday. With none of the deaths investigated so far, all that exists are theories of what may be happening. Privately, Pak officials blame the Afghan security apparatus for many of the killings, arguing that it is part of score-settling and posturing ahead of the Afghan transition to a new government and security paradigm. That theory could very likely account for at least some of the killings. But it doesn't necessarily explain all of the deaths.
Hence, further theories. In the blame game that is often Pak-Afghan relations, there are some on the Afghan government side, particularly within the Karzai government, that blame Pakistain itself for the killings. The explanation, or allegation as the case may be: some of the deaths involve Afghan Taliban figures who are believed to have either been open to talks with the Karzai government or already had channels of communication open and in doing so attracted the displeasure of elements within the Pak establishment who want any reconciliation with the Afghan Taliban to be routed through Pak channels. Certainly, the Afghan side often levels wild allegations against the Pak state, particularly the security establishment, but in the murkiness of Pak-Afghan-Taliban relations, nothing can ever be ruled out.
Then there is a third possibility, also likely responsible for some of the deaths: hardliners among the Afghan Taliban opposed to reconciliation are killing both Afghan government officials and Afghan Taliban interested in a negotiated settlement. Hardliners are a reality and, given that so little can be said with certainty about the ebb and flow of intra-Afghan Taliban dynamics, it is certainly possible that some among the Afghan Taliban are eyeing another sweeping victory once foreign troops reduce their presence in the country to a bare minimum. Taken together, all of the theories do add up to one inescapable reality -- that the next couple of years will put new and unpredictable strains on the Pak-Afghan relationship that will require clear-headedness, policy clarity and firm resolve on the part of both sides if the strains are not to overwhelm the relationship and cause it to spiral out of control again. For Pakistain, wrestling as it is with a domestic insurgency that is tenacious and resilient, getting drawn into a vicious tit-for-tat exchange with Afghanistan would be doubly harmful. Perhaps properly investigating the killings would be just the step Pakistain needs to take to help lessen these new tensions.
Posted by: Fred ||
03/01/2014 00:00 ||
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[ArutzSheva] While Israel may have proven more than capable of meeting the military challenges it faces, the global campaign to extinguish the Jewish presence in the ancestral homeland of the Jewish people continues apace. Commentary Magazine's newly released eBook "The New War on Israel" explores the contours of this determined effort to delegitimize Israel's most basic right; that it should simply be allowed to exist. The anthology of essays and opinion pieces provides an up-to-date overview of the latest trends in the movement to wage war on Israel by other means, offering an in depth analysis of the forces at work behind this campaign. As such this new eBook offers both a way to understand this latest manifestation of the war on the Jews, but also some essential pointers for how this phenomenon can be ultimately combated.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[ArutzSheva] While Israel may have proven more than capable of meeting the military challenges it faces, the global campaign to extinguish the Jewish presence in the ancestral homeland of the Jewish people continues apace. Commentary Magazine's newly released eBook "
