[Gold SZ] Below, we follow the breadcrumbs of simple math and bond market signals toward an oft-repeated pattern of how once-great nations become, well...not so great any more.
Debt Destroys Nations
Debt, once it passes the Rubicon from extreme to just plain madness, destroys nations.
Just ask the former Spanish, British or Dutch empires. Or ask the inter-war Germans. Ask the Yugoslavians of the 1990’s or ask a historian of Ancient Rome or a merchant in modern Argentina.
It’s all pretty much the same story, just different a different stage or curtain call.
Like Hemingway’s description of poverty, the process begins slowly at first, and then all at once.
Part of this process involves currency debasement needed to pay down more desperate issuance of IOUs, a process evidenced by rising rather than "transitory" inflation.
Thereafter, comes increased social unrest, and hence increased centralization from the political left or right in the name of "what’s best for us."
Sound familiar?
Centralization—The Last, Failed Act
Centralization never works in the long run, but that has never stopped opportunists from trying.
Just look at our central bankers.
In a centralized rather than free market, the very name "central bank" should be a dead give-away as to their real role and profile.
As private central banks have been slowly increasing their hidden power and control over national markets and hence national welfare, the very notion of free price discovery in bonds, and indirectly in stocks, is now all but an extinct financial creature in the neo-feudalism which long ago replaced genuine capitalism.
How the Central Game is Played—From Temporary Prosperity to Permanent Ruin
When central banks like the Fed repress rates and print gobs and gobs of money, bonds are artificially supported, which means their prices go up and their yields are compressed.
When yields are low, rates are low, which means the cost of credit is cheap, allowing otherwise profitless names in the stock markets to borrow money and time for years of temporary prosperity—like a 600% rise in a post-08 S&P...
In short: central bank repressed rates are a profound tailwind for otherwise mediocre risk assets.
But when central banks like the Fed raise rates (ostensibly to "fight inflation"), the opposite effect happens—and things break. I mean really break.
I’ve written and spoken ad nauseum about what has broken, is breaking and will continue to break; furthermore, I’ve written and spoken at length about the quantifiable irony that Powell’s so-called war on inflation will only end in more inflation.
Yep, the ironies just abound in this world of so-called experts, which is little more than an island of misfit toys.
Postponing Pain Only Heightens It
In normal, free-market cycles devoid of central bank "support," bonds and hence rates rise and fall naturally based on natural demand and natural supply.
Imagine that?
This leads to frequent but healthy moments of what von Mises and Schumpeter described as "constructive destruction"—i.e., a cleaning out of debt-soaked and crappy enterprises in naturally occurring recessions and naturally occurring market drawdowns.
But central banks somehow thought they could outlaw recessions by printing money out of thin air to support bonds and repress yields. You know—solve a debt crisis with more debt. Brilliant...
This was hubris at the highest level, and the stupid just became a habit and even received a fancy name to justify it—Modern Monetary Theory.
Natural Market Forces Are Stronger than Central (Bank) Forces
But the longer central banks postponed pain to win Noble Prizes and ego-lifting acclaim from the un-informed, the greater the natural pain (ticking time bomb) these central planners created as they now slowly realize that the bond market, like an ocean, is more powerful than a band of unelected market stewards.
In fact, a bunch of FOMC officials (Kashkari, Bostic, Waller et al.) are now running around like headless chickens and declaring that higher bond yields may now be more powerful than the Fed Funds Rate.
In other words, after months of hawkish chest-puffing, they are saying that perhaps enough is enough with the "higher for longer" meme...
Central bankers, it seems, are beginning to realize what informed credit market jocks have always known, viz: The bond market is stronger than any central bank.
Price Matters
That is, eventually central bankers lose control of artificial bond pricing.
Which means that eventually the great weight of sinking bonds and hence rising yields and rates becomes more powerful than central bank money printers to keep those bonds artificially "supported."
I’ve been saying this for years despite "journalists" at the WSJ and Financial Times calling math-based realists like me "kooks."
But recently even the fine folks at the WSJ or Financial Times (FT) are beginning to worry out loud as UST supplies far outstrip natural demand, causing bond prices to fall and yields and rates to rise fatally higher than central bankers once thought safely under their control.
We’ve warned of this for years—and this grotesque supply and demand mis-match has only risen exponentially in recent months.
[Ynet] Israel’s battle against Jihad is primarily against an external enemy; European countries, however, are in a completely different situation: the Islamo-Nazi enemy is within them
"I'm terrified," said a Jewish woman from Berlin after Jewish homes were marked with the Star of David in the German capital. Her concerns are well-founded. During protests supporting Hamas since the onset of the war, participants also chanted familiar Nazi slogans, like "Death to Jews." The Nazis have not vanished. But Islamo-Nazis are marching in the streets of Berlin and almost every major city across Europe. The problem isn't just with the Jews. Europe has a problem.
Israel is battling the axis of evil, Sunni and Shiite Jihad, in a tough and brutal war. But these are primarily external enemies. Hezbollah from the north, Hamas from the south, and occasionally, Jihadist terrorists operating in the Palestinian territories. European countries face a wholly different situation.
The Islamo-Nazi enemy is within. Tens of millions of Muslims living in Europe do not necessarily support Jihad. But a majority has never been required. Tens of thousands of Muslims took to the streets since October 7 to identify with Hamas, an integral part of the global Jihad. They showed support even when they were aware of the mass murders, even when they knew about the slaughtering of infants and mothers. not "even when" but "because"
In some European countries, there is a ban on demonstrations supporting Hamas, which is designated as a terrorist organization. However, the workaround is to protest, ostensibly, "for the Palestinians". But when you hear the voices and messages, when you see the countless signs with predominant slogans like "From the Jordan to the sea, Palestine will be free" — there's no room for illusions.
These are demonstrations advocating for the elimination of the Jewish state. Occasionally, ISIS flags also appear at these protests. Not a single sign supports peace, reconciliation, or a two-state solution for two peoples. They are siding with the perpetrators of the massacre. Established Europeans from antisemitic circles also participate in these protests, masquerading as progressives and enlightened.
Not every protest participant or Hamas supporter, even among those who take to the streets, will arm themselves to carry out a terrorist act. But it's already happening.
...We are just at the beginning, before the ground offensive. Let's not deceive ourselves. It's not that members of the Green-Red coalition, of Islamists and progressive antisemites, are moved by the suffering in the Gaza Strip.
In Africa, just in Africa, Islamist groups killed 19,091 people in 2022. Many thousands more were killed in Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries. Has anyone seen or heard of a protest for them? By Muslims? By human rights advocates? It didn't happen. Because it's not about sensitivity to human life. It's about hatred of Jews. We hope that riots will not occur. But there is a very serious fear that they indeed will.
Posted by: Grom the Reflective ||
10/24/2023 01:43 ||
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Aleksandr Bovdunov
Responding to the protest last Wednesday, where 300 of the 350 protesters in the Capitol rotunda were arrested.
[REGNUM] More than 500 Jewish activists were arrested in the United States for seizing one of the Capitol buildings. This was stated by the Jewish Voice for Peace
... an American far-left, overtly Jewish organization banned by Israel because of its strident support of the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions campaign. They like to call themselves the Jewish wing of the Palestine solidarity movement, which sounds much nicer than what they are, given that the Anti-Defamation League considers them too radical. NGO Monitor lists a few of its financial backers here...
organization, the initiator of the protest in the American capital, which caused a lot of noise last week. Let us recall that on October 18, activists protesting the bombing of Gaza broke into the Cannon Building, the oldest office building of the US Congress. They were wearing T-shirts with the words “Not in our name.” The attire of many was complemented by the attributes of religious Jews: a tallit veil, a kippah and tefillin - boxes with texts from the Torah, tied on the forehead and arm.
Continued on Page 49
#1
We Jews always had plenty of crazy people. It's the stress of living among Gentiles who use you you to deal with their frustrations. We're, very slowly, recovering.
[Daily Caller] Former President Barack Obama released a lengthy statement Monday attacking Israel’s response to Hamas terrorism.
The former president began his statement by expressing solidarity with Israel before saying that "we should also be clear that how Israel prosecutes this fight against Hamas matters."
"In particular, it matters — as President Biden has repeatedly emphasized — that Israel’s military strategy abides by international law, including those laws that seek to avoid, to every extent possible, the death or suffering of civilian populations."
"Still, the world is watching closely as events in the region unfold, and any Israeli military strategy that ignores the human costs could ultimately backfire," Obama said.
"Already, thousands of Palestinians have been killed in the bombing of Gaza, many of them children. Hundreds of thousands have been forced from their homes. The Israeli government’s decision to cut off food, water and electricity to a captive civilian population threatens not only to worsen a growing humanitarian crisis; it could further harden Palestinian attitudes for generations, erode global support for Israel, play into the hands of Israel’s enemies, and undermine long term efforts to achieve peace and stability in the region."
The former president then called on Israel to talk with Palestinian leaders who recognize Israel’s right to exist so that they can then "begin articulating a viable pathway for Palestinians to achieve their legitimate aspirations for self-determination."
Obama also said people must reject "efforts to minimize the terrible tragedy that the Israeli people have just endured, as well as the morally-bankrupt suggestion that any cause can somehow justify the deliberate slaughter of innocent people."
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Victoria Nikiforova
The Atlantic magazine, one of the most influential political publications in the United States, published an instructive article by the notable fighter of the information front, Anne Applebaum, “Netanyahu’s attack on democracy left Israel unprepared.
”Summary: the “authoritarian” Benjamin Netanyahu is to blame for Israel’s problems in general and the Hamas attack in particular. The main message is that until Israel gets rid of this “authoritarian”, it will not see victory.
Sounds quite unexpected, doesn't it? Israel has not yet recovered from the shock. Joe Biden promised his ally help - he sent an entire aircraft carrier to the region and is even trying to extort billions of dollars from Congress so that Tel Aviv could use this money to purchase weapons from American corporations. And then there’s this stab in the back.
In theory, Washington should now treat the Prime Minister of Israel in the same way as it treats Zelensky. Receive him in Congress, kiss his hands, praise him, make aunts, load all your information guns on his PR. Moreover, Ukraine is still a young partner (or partner?) of the White House. And Israel is our oldest and most devoted ally. But something went wrong.
We must understand that Applebaum is not just an ordinary propagandist. She is married to a prominent Polish politician Radoslaw Sikorski , she is a Pulitzer laureate, a member of various editorial boards and influential organizations, the author of endless discussions about how to end Russia . Her career in the field of Russophobia began with a monumental work about the Gulag, and continued with collaboration with Navalny.
Applebaum’s ancestors at one time moved to the United States from Belarus - for some reason this motivates her to fight us to the bitter end. In 2007, the propagandist gave a lecture in Russian in Moscow entitled “Repentance as a Social Institution.” She demanded that we repent for the Gulag, similar to how the Germans repent for the Holocaust, and to carry out “adequate, normal lustrations” in the country.
Apparently, Netanyahu’s “authoritarianism” in Applebaum’s understanding is a refusal to follow the openly hostile anti-Russian course of the United States. Israel has not joined the sanctions regime, is not waging an information war against us, does not boast of supplies to Ukraine, the country has remained open to the Russians.
The Hamas attack on October 7 gave the United States excellent leverage to put pressure on Tel Aviv. If the IDF does not avenge its defeat, Netanyahu will collapse. To take revenge, we need US help - not only with money and weapons, but also with information, diplomatic and political support. And all this help comes in a package with demands to change policy in relations with Russia. Hence the parallels between Hamas and Putin that Joe Biden persistently draws. Cynically? But it works. Americans are great pragmatists, although they do not forget to wrap their business logic in rhetorical candy wrappers such as defending democracy.
In order to put more pressure on their ally, the American media are promoting the topic of pro-Palestinian protests in the United States. A new seizure of the Capitol was shown on all screens - this time it was stormed by anti-Israel protesters, who were freely allowed inside by the police and filmed by television cameras from all points.
The number of pro-Palestinian sympathizers among US Democratic voters is widely debated. Approval of Israel among their ranks has declined radically in recent years. According to a Gallup poll , only 38 percent of Democrats support the Jewish state, while 49 percent sympathize with the Palestinians. Support for Israel in the United States remains high among Republicans and “independent” nonpartisan voters. However, the ruling US party can at any moment refer to a split in its ranks and turn off the valve for “aid” to Israel.
The results of the Gallup study were published back in March, when mass protests against judicial reform began in Israeli cities. Evil tongues in Israel then said that it was beneficial for the Americans to support these protests. Anne Applebaum speaks with great sympathy in her article about the protesters. In the summer, at the height of the rallies, she herself traveled to Israel, spoke with demonstrators, and now uses her interviews to accuse Netanyahu.
But even more profitable for the United States was the Hamas attack on Israel. It ensured Washington's return to the Middle East as a decision maker and allowed it to put pressure on Tel Aviv, which dared to have its own opinion on foreign policy issues.
Years ago, Senator Biden said, “If Israel didn’t exist, it would have to be invented.” To paraphrase Sleepy Joe, if the October 7 attack had not happened, the Americans should have made it up. I wouldn’t like to go into conspiracy theories, but the failure of the legendary Iron Dome, the suddenly open border with the Gaza Strip, and the amount of top-secret information that Hamas fighters were able to somehow obtain in order to plan and successfully carry out such a thing look extremely strange. large-scale invasion. The Israeli military is openly talking about the many misunderstandings of this story.
I would not like to think that Washington is capable of such a provocation against its closest ally. Perhaps the original idea was less bloody, but then everything didn’t go as expected. But even if the Americans are not involved here, they are trying to make the most of the current situation.
The pressure on Israel is so palpable that a member of the ruling Likud party , Amir Weitman, understanding what his overseas patrons demand, has already launched threats against Russia. His sudden hysteria would have been as incomprehensible as Applebaum's article. But if the US goal in the Palestinian-Israeli aggravation is to force Israel into confrontation with Russia, then the puzzle fits together.
And everything falls into place.
Another thing is that the deterioration of relations with our country makes Israel’s loneliness absolutely comprehensive. A country surrounded by enemies has no one left at all. But isn't that what they are trying to achieve in Washington?
#2
Another Nikiforova, a juggler. Or should I say another juggling Nikiforova? And now, comrades and gentlemen, in our center ring, the great and terrible Amazing Applebaum! [juggles Nikiforovas... and Stalin... and Putin]
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[Gold SZ] Below, we follow the breadcrumbs of simple math and bond market signals toward an oft-repeated pattern of how once-great nations become, well...not so great any more.
[Daily Caller] Former President Barack Obama released a lengthy statement Monday attacking Israel’s response to Hamas terrorism.
