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Yar! French navy nabs 9 Somali pirates
Today's Headlines
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-Lurid Crime Tales-
NY financier arrested in purported $400 million scam
Authorities on Monday arrested the chief executive of a private New York financing firm on suspicion of running a purported Ponzi scheme that attracted $400 million in investments, U.S. law enforcement officials said.
Thank goodness all the SEC and Federal Reserve regulators who were supposed to watching out for this stuff got bounced when The One became president ...
Nicholas Cosmo, head of Agape World Inc on New York's Long Island, was said to provide commercial bridge loans, but was instead operating a traditional Ponzi scheme in which early investors are paid with the money of new clients, officials said. "Nicholas Cosmo took the advice of an attorney and complied with an arrest warrant," said Al Weissmann, spokesman for the U.S. Postal Inspection Service, which is investigating Agape World and Cosmo along with the FBI.
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Piker.
Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 || 01/28/2009 10:29 Comments || Top||

#2  Yeah, I'd be throwing my money at an outfit called "Agape"...
Posted by: tu3031 || 01/28/2009 11:26 Comments || Top||


-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Bird flu found in British Columbia turkey farm
Posted by: lotp || 01/28/2009 10:04 || Comments || Link || [3 views] Top|| File under:

#1  The best way to describe the current Chinese attitude to H5N1 is halfway between despair and fear. The disease has been slowly spreading its endemic operations area, and now "one here and two there" people are dying from it, over large distances from each other.

In just two months, imagine just one person catching the disease and dying in Boston, then rural Utah, then a suburb of Miami, then in Harlem, and then two cases in northern California. With nothing to connect the cases. That is pretty much what the China outbreaks have been. And with a full, modern bio response to every one.

You know something is bad, very bad, and there is nothing you can do about it, but wait.
Posted by: Anonymoose || 01/28/2009 23:51 Comments || Top||


Africa Subsaharan
President Obama leads US drive to topple Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe
President Obama wants a fresh approach to toppling Robert Mugabe and is discussing with aides an unprecedented, US-led diplomatic push to get tough new UN sanctions imposed against the Zimbabwe regime, The Times has learned.

During talks Mr Obama has had with his top Africa advisers in recent weeks, the central idea they focused on was taking the issue of Zimbabwe before the UN Security Council, but for the first time to combine such a move with an intense diplomatic effort to persuade Russia and China not to block the initiative.

According to a senior aide present at the discussions, the goal of taking the issue of Zimbabwe to the Security Council would be to pass a series of "strong" sanctions, including a ban on arms sales and foreign investment. They also want to expand significantly the number of ruling Zanu-PF party officials subject to sanctions.

Last July, after Mr Mugabe was accused of rigging the elections to stay in power, China and Russia, who have significant financial interests in Zimbabwe, vetoed moves to impose UN sanctions. Mr Obama and his aides believe that, with the growing international outcry over conditions there and the devastating loss of life from the cholera outbreak, Beijing and Moscow can now be persuaded at the very least to abstain when the issue of sanctions comes to another vote.
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [3 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Hey China, Russia... I need a WIN in Africa. I'll give you the Panama Canal, GITMO, uranium for Iran, and free gas for Caribbean naval exercises for ten years for........tell'em Rahm, make it happen!
Posted by: Besoeker || 01/28/2009 6:56 Comments || Top||

#2  An example of how lefties love to waste time where no American interests are at stake. If its such a problem,let China and Russia with their "significant financial interests" sort it out.
Posted by: NCMike || 01/28/2009 9:00 Comments || Top||

#3  Why doesn't he appoint a special envoy to discuss it with Mugabe? Why are direct negotiaitons appropriate with Iran, but not Zimbabwe?

And how much will it cost us to clean up the mess?
Posted by: DoDo || 01/28/2009 11:15 Comments || Top||

#4  Did he get this idea from watching the latest episodes of "24"???
Posted by: Yosemite Sam || 01/28/2009 12:42 Comments || Top||

#5  While replicating his economic meltdown here at home.
Posted by: mojo || 01/28/2009 14:24 Comments || Top||

#6  I don't have much faith in Obama, but I have to call bs on the above comments. Can any of you honestly say you would NOT have praised the decision to get rid of of mugabe *spit*, if it had been made by President Bush?


Posted by: Dcreeper || 01/28/2009 15:12 Comments || Top||

#7  And how much will it cost us to clean up the mess?

And just WHY should America be interested in any way, shape, or fashion in "Cleaning up this mess"?
Posted by: Rednek Jim || 01/28/2009 15:30 Comments || Top||

#8  Can any of you honestly say you would NOT have praised the decision to get rid of of mugabe *spit*, if it had been made by President Bush?

We probably would have. But in the grand scheme of things, I highly doubt we'd be seeing such laudatory phrases as "fresh approach to toppling" had President Bush made the decision.

In any case, the Bush decision was to let Zimbabwe's neighbors handle it, which would have likely been praised had it been also made by a Democrat.

Either way, Bush would have been screwed.

Color us cynical.
Posted by: Pappy || 01/28/2009 16:35 Comments || Top||

#9  With events like these, I generally look for what is NOT being said. What could possibly motivate a newly elected President or anyone else for that matter, to jump into a pot like this on his first week in office...?
Posted by: Besoeker || 01/28/2009 16:51 Comments || Top||

#10  With everything else out there for him to focus on - Zimbabwe, well it seems like a shift in policy to focus more on African issues. Seems to me to be a more ethnic decision than a strategic US interest decision. But then I'm a bit jaded in that we will walk away from Iraq and AQ and give the edge to people that supported, financed, and executed the most lethal strike on US soil in history. For the moment, this president is not even playing on the same field as our enemies. God help us...
Posted by: 49 Pan || 01/28/2009 17:23 Comments || Top||

#11  This is just another way of draining America's resources, just like the current destruction of the regular budgetary process where all the socialist wish-list programs get first pick at the process and everyone else (including the military budget) gets to fight the entitlements for the leftovers a year or more down the road.
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain || 01/28/2009 17:49 Comments || Top||

#12  Can any of you honestly say you would NOT have praised the decision to get rid of of mugabe *spit*, if it had been made by President Bush?

I don't recall seeing any comments here exhorting Bush to overthrow Mugabe - maybe I'm wrong and there were some, but I don't recall seeing them. Nice though it would be to topple him, it would put good servicemen's lives at risk for little to no national strategic benefit. Mugabe's a problem for Zimbabwe, primarily, and the rest of Africa, secondly. Except for some brave individuals in Zimbabwe, neither of those groups have done much at all to warrant support overthrowing Mugabe - in fact it's been pretty clear that most of his neighbours like the guy (presumably because he makes them look not quite so bad by comparison).
Posted by: Bulldog || 01/28/2009 18:18 Comments || Top||

#13  I would not have been praising this decision even if made by Pres. Bush.

It's sucking resources away from much more strategic fronts in the WoT and refocusing them on B.F.Zimbabwe.
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain || 01/28/2009 18:54 Comments || Top||

#14  Can any of you honestly say you would NOT have praised the decision to get rid of of mugabe *spit*, if it had been made by President Bush?


I can honestly say that I would have been against it. If we get involved in overthrowing governments then we assume responsibility for the aftermath. I don't think we have the ability to put in a stable government without a long term commitment of troops and I'm not interested in paying to clean up the mess.
Posted by: DoDo || 01/28/2009 19:21 Comments || Top||

#15  CNN was repor on unrest in MADGASCAR this AM.
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 01/28/2009 19:43 Comments || Top||

#16  What could possibly motivate a newly elected President or anyone else for that matter, to jump into a pot like this on his first week in office...?

If you're trying to show the world you've hit the deck-plates running, you do stuff like this. Basically it's "make a list of everything Bush did or didn't do, then start doing the opposite".
Posted by: Pappy || 01/28/2009 21:27 Comments || Top||


Bangladesh
Poll results of seven upazilas cancelled
The Election Commission (EC) yesterday suspended poll results of seven upazila parishads on grounds of massive irregularities in the elections, following an investigation sparked by an onslaught of complaints from defeated candidates.
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [1 views] Top|| File under:


Britain
'They say we're too old to care for our grandchildren'
It's the same mindset as Obama/Pelosi/Reid - ram through what you want by force and remake society no matter who is hurt in the process.

Maybe even BECAUSE of who is hurt in the process
Posted by: tipper || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [1 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Sorry, that's a bit over the top. Action such as this might result in a body count if it were to involve a member of my family.
Posted by: Besoeker || 01/28/2009 7:25 Comments || Top||

#2  The fix was in on this one. A bunch of liberal SP case workers just wanted to hand these kids over to a gay couple, they probably needed to meet a quota. Why should we think of the best interest of the kids, they are just numbers in a system- and grandparents,"are they out to pasture yet?".
The Pope's opinion "a treasure which the younger generation should not be denied."
Not to mention the grandmother was 46 and women in their 40s are still having babies.
Posted by: Gloria || 01/28/2009 8:23 Comments || Top||

#3  “He said last night: 'The ideal for any child is to have a loving father and a loving mother in their lives.’”

Hey…watch yer tounge mister! Unless you wanna be charged with a Hate Crime that is…
Posted by: DepotGuy || 01/28/2009 9:53 Comments || Top||

#4  It's Scotland for Gods sake. Place is a Leftist swamp along with the rest of Britain. You'd think the people that still have some decency and a grasp would break out the Tar, Feathers and pitchforks. I can hardly wait for the Left to cross the line and trigger a primal rage in the non left. Gonna be a slaughter.
Posted by: Phinenter Turkeyneck4843 || 01/28/2009 10:37 Comments || Top||

#5  That assumes they aren't all neutered, disarmed and otherwise rendered inconsequential.
Posted by: lotp || 01/28/2009 12:15 Comments || Top||

#6  lotp said it best.
Posted by: WolfDog || 01/28/2009 12:43 Comments || Top||

#7  I'm 62 and my wife's 66, and we're doing just fine with our three-year-old. We're also talking about taking a six-week-old great neice. It's not the age, but the willingness that counts.
This is a social worker out to remake the world. That social worker not only needs to be fired, but should NEVER be hired into a position with trust and responsibility ever again. If this stands, Britain is truly lost.
Posted by: Old Patriot || 01/28/2009 13:42 Comments || Top||

#8  Note to everybody: In a situation like this, ALWAYS GET THE NAMES.
Posted by: tu3031 || 01/28/2009 13:50 Comments || Top||

#9  England is due for revolution.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru || 01/28/2009 14:40 Comments || Top||

#10  And the last graf (of course):

Adoption by gay couples in Scotland was approved by MSPs in 2006 - despite an official consultation process which showed that nearly 90 per cent of people opposed it.
Posted by: KBK || 01/28/2009 15:46 Comments || Top||

#11  Sounds like the real Scots all came over here (my nick ain't for nothing, ya know.)
Posted by: Glenmore || 01/28/2009 19:53 Comments || Top||


U.K. Gives Loan Guarantees, Worker Training to Its Automakers
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:


Europe
Serbia: Former general denies war crimes charges
"Nope. Nope. Wudn't me."
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:


Italy: Hundreds protest against migrants on Lampedusa
(AKI) - Fifteen hundred residents on the southern Italian island of Lampedusa on Tuesday protested against the conservative Italian government's plans to open a new detention centre for illegal immigrants. Local authorities also urged shopkeepers and other businesses to remain closed.

"Free Lampedusa!" the protesters chanted. Locals fear the island is being turned into a 'Mediterranean Alcatraz' by interior minister Roberto Maroni's decision not to transfer illegal immigrants arriving on Lampedusa elsewhere in Italy .

Under Maroni's instructions, the illegal immigrants are to be kept on the island for identification. They will then be deported unless they are eligible for political asylum, refugee or protected status.

Some have been held in the island's current detention centre for over a month. The centre, which was designed to hold a maximum 800 people for a few days at a time, has for over a week been severely overcrowded.

There were 1,000 people being held there on Tuesday after 130 other illegal immigrants were overnight transferred to a military base as an emergency measure, and 100 others who requested political asylum were transferred to a centre in the southern Italian city of Crotone.
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [2 views] Top|| File under:


Great White North
Canada seeks to avoid downturn with tax cuts
Canada's minority Conservative government yesterday unveiled a C$49bn stimulus package of tax cuts and new spending, pushing the federal budget into deficit for the first time since 1996. "We have to do what we have to do to protect Canada from a synchronised global recession," said Jim Flaherty, finance minister, before tabling his annual budget in parliament.

While he vowed to balance the books within the next five years, the time-frame envisaged for the stimulus package, Mr Flaherty acknowledged "things could get worse than we're anticipating, and if they do get worse, we'll do more".

The budget envisages a C$34bn ($28bn, €21bn, £20bn) deficit for the fiscal year starting on April 1, followed by a C$30bn shortfall in 2010-11. The stimulus measures include C$7bn for infrastructure projects, from roads, railways and water and sewerage systems to a small-craft harbour in an Arctic settlement. Mr Flaherty said the emphasis would be on repairs and renovations to existing facilities to avoid time-consuming environmental assessments. Public-private partnerships would be encouraged.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Steve White || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Title should read "CANADA SEEKS TO AVOID AN ELECTION WITH TAX CUTS."
Posted by: Canuckistan sniper || 01/28/2009 12:56 Comments || Top||


India-Pakistan
Pakistan signs $500m loan pact with WB
Pakistan has signed a $500 million loan agreement with the World Bank (WB) in a bid to stabilise the country and alleviate poverty.

The signing ceremony was held at the Economic Affairs Division in Islamabad, a private TV channel reported on Tuesday.

According to the channel, the International Development Association (IDA) of the World Bank -- which provides soft loans to developing countries -- has lent the sum on 'nominal service charges'.

According to the agreement, the maturity period of the loan is 35 years, with a grace period of 10 years, said the channel.

The loan will be transferred to Pakistan in a single tranche after the approval of the WB board, which is scheduled to meet on February 15, it added. Prime Minister's Adviser on Finance Shaukat Tareen attended the signing ceremony.
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [6 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Pakistan

#1  WB = the 1990's WARNER BROTHERS TV FROG???

Gut Nuthin.
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 01/28/2009 19:45 Comments || Top||


Muslims can do yoga: Deoband
Islamic scholars in India including those at the Darul Uloom Deoband say they do not object to Muslims practicing yoga, contrary to a recent decision by Malaysian clerics to ban yoga for Muslims, reported The Indian Express on Tuesday. The Indian scholars said chanting mantras like 'Om' that had religious connotation was not necessary for yoga and Muslims could replace them with verses from the Quran or references to God.

"Yoga is a good form of exercise. If some words, which are supposed to be chanted while performing it, have religious connotations, then Muslims need not utter those. They can instead recite verses from the Quran, praise God or remain silent," Maulana Abdul Khaliq Madrasi, deputy vice-chancellor of the Darul Uloom, told The Indian Express. He said he had discussed the issue with yoga experts and they told him reciting 'Om' or any other mantra was not compulsory for practising yoga.
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [2 views] Top|| File under:

#1  "Yoga is a good form of exercise…”

But he went on to say that treadmills and the ThighMaster are still considered Haram
Posted by: DepotGuy || 01/28/2009 10:03 Comments || Top||

#2  KiiiiiiiilKiiiiiiiilKiiiiiiiil
Posted by: .5MT || 01/28/2009 11:48 Comments || Top||


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Ahmadinejad slams West on Holocaust
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says Western countries have blocked research on the Holocaust to achieve their political objectives.
Not too sure how much "research" is required on something that people still alive could see, touch, and smell.
"Western countries have prevented any kind of research on the Holocaust for almost 60 years to maintain their dominance over other nations," President Ahmadinejad said in a written message to a conference on the Holocaust on Tuesday.
That's right. We did it just to cheese you off, Short Round.
The Holocaust - as defined by the West - has been used as a tool for countries including the US to prevent the emergence of any other power in the world, the message added.

President Ahmadinejad has been accused of harboring ill-will towards Israel and his criticism of European laws which ban research on the Holocaust.

The President however said in a September interview with CNN's Larry King that he saw a line between Zionism and Judaism. "Iranians have nothing against the Jewish people or their religion," President Ahmadinejad said. "How can you be religious and kill women and children at the same time?" he argued.
It's not easy, but when the bad guys put the women and kiddies in front of them it can be done.
In the interview, President Ahmadinejad also added that the Israeli regime would disappear in the same way as apartheid South Africa and the Soviet Union. Iranian officials have repeatedly maintained that they do not recognize Israel and have condemned West's 'support' of Tel Aviv.
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [4 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran

#1  President Ahmadinejad has been accused of harboring ill-will towards Israel.

Does it get any more dhimmi than this statement? Why didn't the writer say, "has a bone to pick or is cross with Israel?"
Posted by: hammerhead || 01/28/2009 10:22 Comments || Top||

#2  So little man...
About your respect for the territorial integrity of embassies ...
Posted by: Jating Black8373 || 01/28/2009 10:40 Comments || Top||

#3  He's testing the waters in the Obama pool. Lets see how our new prez repsonds, or not.....
Posted by: 49 Pan || 01/28/2009 17:16 Comments || Top||

#4  Ahmadinejad should go back to torturing prisoners every now and then, he would feel better and would not make as many asinine statements.
Posted by: whatadeal || 01/28/2009 17:21 Comments || Top||


Home Front: Culture Wars
Global warming 'irreversible' for next 1,000 years
Climate change is "largely irreversible" for the next 1,000 years even if carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could be abruptly halted, according to a new study led by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The study's authors said there was "no going back" after the report showed that changes in surface temperature, rainfall and sea level are "largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after CO2 emissions are completely stopped." NOAA senior scientist Susan Solomon said the study, published in this week's Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, showed that current human choices on carbon dioxide emissions are set to "irreversibly change the planet."
Okay then, screw it. There's no point to changing our ways so why bother?
Researchers examined the consequences of CO2 building up beyond present-day concentrations of 385 parts per million, and then completely stopping emissions after the peak. Before the industrial age CO2 in Earth's atmosphere amounted to only 280 parts per million. The study found that CO2 levels are irreversibly impacting climate change, which will contribute to global sea level rise and rainfall changes in certain regions. The authors emphasised that increases in CO2 that occur from 2000 to 2100 are set to "lock in" a sea level rise over the next 1,000 years.

Effects: Rising sea levels would cause "irreversible commitments to future changes in the geography of the Earth, since many coastal and island features would ultimately become submerged," the study said. Decreases in rainfall that last for centuries can be expected to have a range of impacts, said the authors. Regional impacts include - but are not limited to - decreased human water supplies, increased fire frequency, ecosystem change and expanded deserts.
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Aaaawwww, NO SIMSPON's "REVEREND LOVEJOY" running down Springfield yelling "Its all over, people"!?
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 01/28/2009 1:17 Comments || Top||

#2  You are only angry about that "needing to be a Private Corporation so you would not have that GM economy where your jet beat your cars to Washington DC. Let's go Green Nancy. Give up your plane. Ride your unicorn or hotel grass top carpets to the rescue.

Call Kucinich, there was a UFO at the inagural.

BAH!
Posted by: newc || 01/28/2009 2:18 Comments || Top||

#3  There's nothing to reverse.
Posted by: gorb || 01/28/2009 2:48 Comments || Top||

#4  Algore = Epic Fail. Again.
Posted by: eLarson || 01/28/2009 6:11 Comments || Top||

#5  And then there's this:
"the authors find that the irreversible global average sea level rise by the year 3000 would be at least 1.3–3.2 feet (0.4–1.0 meter) if our cockamamie scheme is correct CO2 peaks at 600 parts per million, and double that amount if CO2 peaks at 1,000 parts per million."

That will average out to 1 mm per year. Or maybe 2 mm. OH NOES!

Good thing Joel will be safe up in the Satellite of Love.
Posted by: eLarson || 01/28/2009 6:22 Comments || Top||

#6  Hubristic arrogance on so many levels. Pride goeth before the fall.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble || 01/28/2009 7:05 Comments || Top||

#7  A lifetime spent dealing with engineers and scientists has taught me one overarching truth: You can prove anything if you can pick your data set.

These people have social agendas which they have been pushing since the fall of the Soviet Union and are becoming increasingly shrill and bombastic as it becomes apparent to people that it is getting colder. They have a very short time to try and get their legislative agenda enacted and salvage their reputations before it becomes apparent that they are nothing but politicized grant whores and propaganda spewing simpletons. The claims will get even more apocalyptic (and less provable) as the sands run out on the public's acceptance of the global warming hype.
Posted by: rwv || 01/28/2009 7:29 Comments || Top||

#8  YEAH!!!

My Hummer driving, bean eating and methane producing ass is victorious!!!

BRUHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Posted by: DarthVader || 01/28/2009 7:36 Comments || Top||

#9  Susan Solomon, Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley, 1981 -- need I say more?
Posted by: Darrell || 01/28/2009 9:44 Comments || Top||

#10  So I need to buy a beach house that is setback from the water another few inches?
Posted by: Jating Black8373 || 01/28/2009 10:42 Comments || Top||

#11  Which means "Grant money 'irreversible' for next 1,000 years".
Don't kill the job, boys and girls...
Posted by: tu3031 || 01/28/2009 11:24 Comments || Top||

#12 

Al Gore is a modern day Elmer Gantry, just a different twist on Fire & Brimstone. He's running a traveling tent show and fleecing the faithful.

Posted by: GolfBravoUSMC || 01/28/2009 12:31 Comments || Top||

#13  2 degrees here. Thank goodness we can reverse that.
Posted by: Icerigger || 01/28/2009 13:27 Comments || Top||

#14  Just finished shoveling a foot of irreversible global warming out of my driveway.
Posted by: DMFD || 01/28/2009 16:13 Comments || Top||

#15  But even if the planet is dying, why am I meant to care?
Posted by: Injun Spomoper6133 || 01/28/2009 17:23 Comments || Top||

#16  Is she sure it's gonna take 1000 years to warm us all up? Winter's up in a few weeks and I want to heat up NOW, dammit!
Posted by: Cornsilk Blondie || 01/28/2009 18:32 Comments || Top||


Home Front Economy
Climate Change Could Choke Oceans for 100,000 Years
That does it. I'm leaving.
Posted by: Fred || 01/28/2009 00:00 || Comments || Link || [0 views] Top|| File under:

#1  As per the A2 Scenario, IOW humans have until 2100 ["end of the century"] to live because many MMGW Perts argue that Mankind + biotic life can't naturally survive a TEMP CHANGE OF THAT MAGNITUDE???

SUB-IOW, WE MUST MILITARILY FORCE OWG-NWO = SOCIALIST ORDER UPON THE WORLD IN ORDER TO HAVE THE RESOURCES TO BEGIN BUILDING UNDERGROUND = ENCLOSED ENVIRON-REGULATED CITIES [Logan's Run].

SUB-SUB-IOW, D **** THE HADRON COLLIDER, MORIARITY, NASA-JPL + AREA 51/53 etc. MUST BEGIN SENDING ITS [Crewed, populated] MILE(S)-SIZED "ALIEN/ROSWELLIAN UFO" CRAFTS = SPACE ARKS INTO SPACE - NOW, ASAP, TWAS YESTERDAY AND DECADES AGO SINCE ROSWELL???
Posted by: JosephMendiola || 01/28/2009 1:13 Comments || Top||

#2  These people cannot tell us with accuracy what next Tuesdays weather will be, but here is our fate for the next 100,000 years?
What crap
Posted by: Helmuth, Speaking for Thromong2805 || 01/28/2009 1:19 Comments || Top||

#3  I would be interested to know the degree to which major volcanic eruptions during the next 40 years have been factored into the forecast - given that Mt. St. Helens and Mt. Pinatubo both resulted in rapid and dramatic cooling of the atmosphere - just within the past 30 years. I have to assume that there will be some equally "chilling" volcanic eruptions within the next 40 years - as has been the pattern for many centuries/millenia - meaning that volcanic eruptions are a normal part of the global climate system.
Posted by: Lone Ranger || 01/28/2009 4:46 Comments || Top||

#4  These people cannot tell us with accuracy what next Tuesdays weather will be, but here is our fate for the next 100,000 years?

I don't know which cars in front of me on the way to work will take exit 5A either, but I know that it's going to be painfully congested between 7 and 8:30 AM on M-F.

There are big assumptions in these climate models that are incomplete and perhaps unjustified. But the criticism that "they can't predict Tuesday's weather" isn't particularly cogent. Tuesday's weather in one place is a specific data item. Climate is the aggregate effect of millions of such items over a very long time.

In many cases it's perfectly possible to model complex processes and get overall system performance without being able to predict the behavior of one element in the system. To do so requires a good grasp of the underlying dynamics and of the key factors driving the system. Lots of such models have proven useful - I and my colleagues build them for all sorts of purposes.

We do NOT have a sufficiently firm grasp of all of the forces that aggregate to climate however, which is why there is so much disagreement about the effects of unprecedented inputs into the climate system. Models always come with the caveat that they are predictive if and only if a) they capture the key factors accurately and b) the assumed input conditions hold in real life. We can predict - or influence - how much C02 we put out. But if we don't really know all the main driving factors that aggregate to climate, it's very difficult to judge how useful a projection of the sort described in this article really is.

My take is that it is not a final answer. But it IS a model of one factor/mechanism that drives climate. How much it does so, and what other factors might be at work to dampen its effects, is not at all clear, however.
Posted by: lotp || 01/28/2009 7:20 Comments || Top||

#5  I agree with your weather analogy, lotp, but do you also believe econometric models 5, 10 20 years out? And the economy is far less complex than climate. This is an unwinnable argument for either side because the time scale involved for either is so long that we will not know.

This is not really a scientific discussion, it is resource allocation and politics.

What we do know is that the recommendations of the greens will force billions further into poverty and cause massive death and misery. Risk this for some academic's model, the failure of which will have no consequences for its author? Bah.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble || 01/28/2009 7:57 Comments || Top||

#6 
Posted by: Mitch H. || 01/28/2009 8:45 Comments || Top||

#7  "It reemphasizes the valid point that global warming will lead to a decrease in ocean oxygen levels with potentially adverse consequences for marine life."

Depends on if this model is based on “algorithms” or “Al Gore-rithims”.
Posted by: DepotGuy || 01/28/2009 9:20 Comments || Top||

#8  I believe the point lotp is making is that we do not know enough to reasonably claim the current global warming models are either valid or invalid.
In my opinion man's contribution to atmospheric CO2 IS a factor to be considered in global climate models. It is not the only factor. I don't think we even know how significant a factor it is. In addition to the tons emitted, we need to understand potential buffering or allied processes (chemical or biologic feedback loops, water expansion, solubility changes, shelf area changes and their ecologic effects, etc.) Then there are other anthropogenic processes that might also affect climate - particulates in the air, acids in the water, methane releases (decreased or increased?), fertilizer in the water, etc.) And even if we totally understood all of this, and could perfectly manage and control it, we still might find we had neglible effect on climate (or not), since we don't know how the solar variables compare.
Climate is a valid and vital area for scientific research. But the treatment of our current state of knowledge seems more like religious dogma than science.
Posted by: Glenmore || 01/28/2009 9:42 Comments || Top||

#9  do you also believe econometric models 5, 10 20 years out

The difficulty with econometric models is that we have and will continue to see significant new factors inserted into the economic system, primary among them technological changes that introduce real discontinuities or at a minimum significant changes in costs, resource uses, life span etc.

There are SWAG estimates that try to adjust for those effects, but they are very hard to tune correctly.

In my own modeling work, I and my colleagues always do sensitivity analysis on our assumptions and these sorts of parameters. In other words, given that we are estimating unknowns, how *much* does the outcome of the model vary if we vary those estimates?

If the model output is not very sensitive to changes in an assumption or parameter, we don't fuss much with it. But if the output is indeed sensitive to a parameter, then we try our best to hone in and improve those estimates or, at the very least, to make clear that this is an area to track carefully and to re-model when we can get better data.

As Glenmore notes, however, we can't do sensitivity analysis WRT factors that aren't even in the model. And that is the huge caveat WRT climate modeling at this point.

Setting aside politics, there is nonetheless value in creating models now. For one thing, they can be used to predict the outcome *if* assumptions are valid. Should events proceed in ways similar to the model's predictions, it tends to validate the model's accuacy. OTOH should events diverge from the predictions, then there is a basis for exploring what other factors might be at work.

Standard empirical science techniques, the value of which have been obscured by political agendas from all sides.
Posted by: lotp || 01/28/2009 9:46 Comments || Top||

#10  The best way to test one of these models is to use them to reverse engineer the current state.

Put in the values for ALL known factors for a historical period and see if your model predicts the present. No climate models do this. The modeling methodologies and data gathering methodologies are a crock (See Dr. John Theon's testimony to congress).

Until the warmalists open their data and models to independent peer review and replication (you know, real science) this is just greed/politically driven theology.

How many sunspots have you seen lately?
Posted by: AlanC || 01/28/2009 10:04 Comments || Top||

#11  There's stuff I wanted to talk about re: climate change. But I just spent 9 hours trying to sleep and only succeeding in lying awake in bed. I feel lousy.

Maybe tomorrow.
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain || 01/28/2009 10:24 Comments || Top||

#12  over 100K years you get a lot of natural evolution in the ocean.

Hell man evolved in that sort of timeframe.
Posted by: Jating Black8373 || 01/28/2009 10:48 Comments || Top||

#13  "Global Warming" is the biggest political scam of the past century.

Educate yourselves to the facts. The whole "mankind cause climate change" has no real science in it.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:zHEbvStyq2QJ:www.dmi.dk/dmi/dkc06-03.pdf+danish+climate+study&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=us&lr=lang_en

Sorry, too much going on to HTMLize the links
Posted by: DLR || 01/28/2009 11:09 Comments || Top||

#14  Better late than never...

Nasa Supervisor Speaks Out

AGW is a scam
Posted by: Abu do you love || 01/28/2009 13:18 Comments || Top||

#15  Not to mention Asteroid 1999 AN10.
Posted by: Mullah Richard || 01/28/2009 13:27 Comments || Top||

#16  This man calls himself a "scientist"? According to data from Fred Singer, there are something like 115,000 variables that affect climate. They include everything from solar forcing, to percentage of vegetation per area of land, to how many cows graze on a pasture. None of the current models used to produce AGW results properly account for solar forcing and sunspot activity, although there are extensive scientific studies that have tied these to prior global climate changes. We're due for another ice age in about 2000 years, if the preceeding pattern of 13,000-14,000 years of warming, then 75,000+ years of cooling (Ice Age).

As AlanC said, the best way to check the validity of a model is to use it to explain what's already happened. The solar/sunspot models come far closer than the AGW claims. The real climate may be somewhere else entirely, simply because current computer models aren't strong enough to handle even 30 variables, much less 115,000. And as LOTP said, we may find, as we study the earth's climate more closely, there are even variables we haven't discovered yet. There's still a lot we don't know about this planet we live on, or the universe it's in.
Posted by: Old Patriot || 01/28/2009 14:26 Comments || Top||

#17  The worst thing about this is that THERE IS NO SCIENCE HERE!!!!!!!!!

Talking about the variables for the models etc. gives this scam more benefit than it deserves. Look at the really simple stuff, data collection.

Have you checked out the siting of these weather stations? Have you noticed that there are none to speak of in most of Asia or the Antarctic? Where do these liars get their numbers? THEY MAKE THEM UP!!!!!!

This is all a fraud and I wish Gore and his myrmidons could be sued into peury for the harm they have caused.
Posted by: AlanC || 01/28/2009 14:40 Comments || Top||

#18  True Alan, Some of the 'stations' are situated in the middle (or very close) to a blacktop parking lots. Or close to AC outlets (read: warm air).
Posted by: CrazyFool || 01/28/2009 14:56 Comments || Top||

#19  Good, I can't stand seafood anyway.
Posted by: Injun Spomoper6133 || 01/28/2009 17:26 Comments || Top||



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