Article

2003-08-28 Korea

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Posted by mjh & Cyber Sarge (VRWC CA Chapter) 2003-08-28 1:24:26 PM|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 They're getting desperate, and trying to pressure us. A nuke blast is precisely what is needed, BTW, to get some action on this issue, such as admitting SK and Japan to the nuclear club. China WON'T like that.

Don't play poker with Bush. Show yer cards, Kimmie, and then we'll see if we'll stay in for the next hand.

Posted by Ptah 2003-8-28 1:30:44 PM|| [http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2003-8-28 1:30:44 PM|| Front Page Top

#2 Well, China, thanks for helping out your neighbor to the south with its dirty little business. Couldn't have done it without you.

Kimmie is exploring the edge of the envelope with his little nuclear blackmail scheme. I would imagine that the Russians are not too excited about it (see article last week about Russian military exercises). So your only friend in the area is China.

I think that the 6 way ~~goat rope~~ talks are over.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-8-28 1:36:06 PM|| 2003-8-28 1:36:06 PM|| Front Page Top

#3 More:
WASHINGTON - North Korea startled a six-nation conference in China on East Asian security by announcing its intentions to formally declare its possession of nuclear weapons and to carry out a nuclear test, an administration official said Thursday.

North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Yong Il also told the gathering that his country has the means to deliver nuclear weapons, an apparent reference to the North's highly developed missile program.

The comments cast a pall over Thursday's plenary session, which included representatives of the United States, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia, in addition to North Korea.

James Kelly, the chief U.S. delegate, demanded that North Korea engage in the verifiable and permanent dismantling of its nuclear weapons programs, in return for which the United States would provide security guarantees and economic benefits.

The administration official, asking not to be identified, said that when Russia and Japan attempted to point out some positive elements of the U.S. presentation, the North Korean delegate attacked them by name and said they were lying at the instruction of the United States.
(Conflict Resolution 101 - NK style: spittle, threats, name-calling, disparage motives, demand money - ed.)
According to the administration official, China's delegate appeared visibly angry over Kim's statement but responded in a moderate tone.

Kim said his country was maintaining this position because the United States clearly had no intention of abandoning its hostile policy toward North Korea, the U.S. official said.

Posted by Frank G 2003-8-28 1:45:23 PM|| 2003-8-28 1:45:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#4 You've all seen Goodfellas when Joe Pesci gets whacked because he's too out of control for his own good. Well...I expect Kim's got a Goodfella's moment coming, and Deniro (China) is going to have to stand by as he gets whacked.

Posted by mjh 2003-8-28 1:57:20 PM|| 2003-8-28 1:57:20 PM|| Front Page Top

#5 any chance their bomb is a dud?... How great would that be....

Posted by ----------<<<<- 2003-8-28 2:04:48 PM|| 2003-8-28 2:04:48 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 Thank you Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton for a nuclear NK.

This ought push Japan and Sk right over the edge.

Posted by Douglas De Bono 2003-8-28 2:07:30 PM|| [http://www.douglasdebono.com] 2003-8-28 2:07:30 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 any chance their bomb is a dud?

Given how few A-bomb tests fail (as opposed to H-bombs, which are trickier), I suspect it's likely to work the first time.

However, I think it would be the catalyst for a massive allied strike against their re-processing plants and other known nuclear sites that would classify the victory as Pyrrhic in nature. Since Kim has demonstrated the ability to lob warheads into Japan, we'd probably be joined in this effort by the Japanese and South Koreans -- and possibly also with some intelligence & logistics assistance from Russia & China.

I believe India and Pakistan are just about the lower limit for possession of nuclear arms by people with somewhat intemperate societies...

Posted by snellenr 2003-8-28 2:14:19 PM|| 2003-8-28 2:14:19 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 "...According to the administration official, China's delegate appeared visibly angry over Kim's statement but responded in a moderate tone...

..What's Chinese for, "What are you, messuggineh???"

All kidding aside, I think Kimmy has finally gone over the edge here. He slapped his ONLY protector in the face, in public. That is NOT going to go over well in the Great Hall of The People.
MJH - the 'Goodfellas' moment is appropriate, but I was thinking more of a real life one - when (IIRC)Dutch Schultz decided he was going to whack Tom Dewey, who had been closing in on him,no matter what the heads of the families thought and then had the b**ls to say it to their faces. After he stormed out, someone quietly said, "I move that we hit the Dutchman..." and it was done.
The problem there is that even after the hit, the Dutchman took a long time to die.

Mike

Posted by Mike Kozlowski 2003-8-28 2:30:28 PM|| 2003-8-28 2:30:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 So your only friend in the area is China.

And the Norks just left a cowpat and a big puddle in the middle of the conference room. Not the way you want to treat the host.

China was humiliated (diplomatically) during the last talks by North Korea's attempt to turn them into a bilateral discussion -- the US delegation left a day early. Now this...

I expect that the oil pipeline between China & N. Korea will have another interruption shortly.

Posted by snellenr 2003-8-28 2:33:12 PM|| 2003-8-28 2:33:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 The three-day summit came together after months of political maneuvering when China - political ally of North Korea and economic partner of the United States - agreed to be the host.
Dinner guest was rude to other guests, host loses face.
China's delegate appeared visibly angry over Kim's statement
China gets angry when they lose face. They can see if NK pops one off, Japan and SK may go nuke. They don't want that, so they might take action against NK themselves.

Posted by Steve 2003-8-28 2:56:34 PM|| 2003-8-28 2:56:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Japan and SK may go nuclear? I would say that they definately would. Add to that the sheer industural, scientific, and economic power of the two countries (JP and SK) involved it would not be long before they do go nuclear -- especially if the U.S. lends some -er- assistance.....

Neither S. Korea or Japan want to be nuclear (especially Japan since they have first-hand experience....) but this will probably force them to it.

It will be interesting to see how China reacts....

Posted by GregJ 2003-8-28 3:28:54 PM|| 2003-8-28 3:28:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 The North Koreans have no other option. They have to act as crazy as they possibly can in the desperate hope that they will get a huge amount of aid - right NOW. Whoever is in charge in Pyongyang probably estimates that they won't make it into 2004 without goodies from outside the country.

Posted by Pete Stanley 2003-8-28 4:16:17 PM|| 2003-8-28 4:16:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Pete,

Very good point. What else can NK do?

This is their last, best chance to negotiate to their advantage, and they are now a liability to everyone at that bargaining table.

I guess we can all see now why NK wanted bilateral talks. They didn't want to have this tantrum in front of their erstwhile allies. Now that they have, the game has changed.

Posted by mjh 2003-8-28 4:31:00 PM|| 2003-8-28 4:31:00 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 What else can they do? Well, given the current Roh administration in Seoul, I can image NK ratcheting up pressure along the DMZ considerably. Say, lobbing a few artillery shells towards US positions. I'd bet the Roh administration would put intense pressure on the US not to respond with force. But they still wouldn't get food, etc. shipments. And then I can see them threatening SK directly - a few shells into downtown Seoul, perhaps.

Beyond that, there's not much they could feasibly do.

Posted by Pete Stanley 2003-8-28 5:10:07 PM|| 2003-8-28 5:10:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 This discussion seems to me predicated on a belief that Frankenkimmie is somehow sane. It may well be that he has flipped his lid.
My first impression on hearing this news was that it was in response to China's message that the US would attack and China would not intervene. I think there is a substantial chance of an explosive breakdown of China-NorK diplomatic relations.

Posted by Dishman 2003-8-28 5:19:28 PM|| 2003-8-28 5:19:28 PM|| Front Page Top

#16 I think China may consider invading NK themselves and install a regiem they can control.

Posted by Yosemite Sam 2003-8-28 6:06:03 PM|| 2003-8-28 6:06:03 PM|| Front Page Top

#17 I still stand by my previous assertion that China will use the nuclear NK issue as leverage against American support of Taiwan. You want a nuclear free N.Korea? Give us Taiwan (or atleast look the other way while we, ehmm, assimilate them).

Posted by Raphael 2003-8-28 7:08:54 PM|| 2003-8-28 7:08:54 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Personally, I'd like them to use up a good portion of their stock on tests -- as long as the tests are in NK. Improves our odds of destroying their capability without our taking one in NY harbor.

Posted by Tom 2003-8-28 7:25:34 PM|| 2003-8-28 7:25:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 Personally, I'd like them to use up a good portion of their stock on tests -- as long as the tests are in NK. Improves our odds of destroying their capability without our taking one in NY harbor.

Posted by Tom 2003-8-28 7:31:25 PM|| 2003-8-28 7:31:25 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 The rules of "live chess"(1) are that you can only make a move on the board if you can show credibly that the real-life piece will move in the same way. Furthermore, if the real-life piece fails to make the move, the board move is invalid.
At this point, I believe that North Korea has balked, and China no longer controls the piece. At this point, all China can do is offer to remove North Korea from the board in return for some consideration from the US.

(1) "The Squares of the City" by John Brunner

Posted by Dishman 2003-8-28 7:53:33 PM|| 2003-8-28 7:53:33 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 Where are they going to "test" this live nuke, Japan, Korea, China, Russia? I doubt any of those countries would sit idly by as NKor uses their territory to test a live nuke. There isn't enough ground anywhere in NKor to test it underground, and that's far more expensive and easy to detect. They might be able to get Pakistan to test it for them, but how is India going to react to that? Send it to Iran? Is there any guarantee that if the Ayatollahs got a live nuke they'd actually explode it, except in some other country? I think NKor has talked themselves into a corner, and there's no back door.

Posted by Old Patriot 2003-8-28 8:21:23 PM|| [http://users.codenet.net/mweather/default.htm] 2003-8-28 8:21:23 PM|| Front Page Top

#22 North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Yong Il also told the gathering that his country has the means to deliver nuclear weapons...

He'd better realize that will be the last delivery they'll ever make.

Posted by tu3031 2003-8-28 9:10:10 PM|| 2003-8-28 9:10:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#23 Tell them to test away. Tell them that the US will not attend another meeting until a sucessful test has been demonstrated. Then sit back drink ice water and say nothing until the meeting ends. In the next round all other participants will be more serious.

Posted by Super Hose 2003-8-28 9:40:17 PM|| 2003-8-28 9:40:17 PM|| Front Page Top

#24 My prediction:
A few hundred miles off the east coast of Japan.

Something else to consider:
Beijing is slightly closer to NKor than Tokyo is.

Posted by Dishman 2003-8-28 9:42:50 PM|| 2003-8-28 9:42:50 PM|| Front Page Top

#25 Like South Africa, the North Koreans will probably do any A-bomb tests in open ocean. If they were to test in North Korea, any fallout that gets away (assuuming an underground test) will drift over Japan -- which will focus Japan's attention very quickly.

Posted by snellenr 2003-8-28 9:55:30 PM|| 2003-8-28 9:55:30 PM|| Front Page Top

#26 If the NORKS do a test in the ocean, it is going to be hard to hide the placement. If it is a plane, we will see or paint it. Same with a ship. Do the Norks have subs? We would be looking for them. Basically on land or sea, they can't hide a test. I cannot say that the NORKS would rationally do this, but you never know. They have been systematically painting themselves into a corner.

Posted by Alaska Paul 2003-8-28 10:16:12 PM|| 2003-8-28 10:16:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#27 Re: Old Patriot

They'll test it underground, like everyone since 1960. Both India & Pakinstein tested their nukes underground, and those were the last into the Nuclear club. Israel have never tested their nuke, but everyone knew they have them, and plenty of.

Of course, if Dear Leader want to demostrate his total insanity, he can test one off the Pacific coast of Japan via a missle delievery system.

Posted by BigFire 2003-8-28 10:47:42 PM|| 2003-8-28 10:47:42 PM|| Front Page Top

#28 Re: Alaska Paul

The whole point of nuclear test is to announce unambigiously to the rest of the world, you have a nuclear device. In this case, should Dear Leader decided to test, hiding it is the last thing he wants to do.

Posted by BigFire 2003-8-28 10:49:56 PM|| 2003-8-28 10:49:56 PM|| Front Page Top

#29 I think if the do test it they might both demostrate their nuclear abilty and their delivery system (didn't they say they would show both?) by firing it over Japan or over S. Korea. That would both show they they have it and setup a hostage situation.

Of course if they do... and the test missle happens to be shot down by a patriot over the sea of Japan (or better yet over N. Korea which would be more tricky....) it would kind of pull their feathers a bit.

They wont be able to take it to a ocean location after much longer of the US and other nations setup a blockaid and start serching vessels for nacotics or arms.

On the other hand its late and I may be blowing smoke out of my ass too :)

Posted by GregJ 2003-8-28 11:54:47 PM|| 2003-8-28 11:54:47 PM|| Front Page Top

#30 NK has diesel subs which are good for coastal patrol. They are incredibly quiet when the are running off of battery power but must snorckle to run the diesels for recharging.

Posted by Super Hose 2003-8-29 8:38:19 PM|| 2003-8-29 8:38:19 PM|| Front Page Top

15:43 Flaming Sword
20:38 Super Hose
13:24 Aris Katsaris
11:39 Aris Katsaris
10:09 Highlander
02:20 R. McLeod
01:55 R. McLeod
01:32 R. McLeod
23:54 GregJ
23:33 Raphael
23:27 Raphael
22:58 tu3031
22:54 Fred
22:49 BigFire
22:47 BigFire
22:23 tu3031
22:16 Alaska Paul
22:16 g wiz
22:09 Super Hose
22:01 Aris Katsaris
21:59 Super Hose
21:55 snellenr
21:50 Super Hose
21:44 Super Hose