Article

2005-06-14 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Aoun emerges as force in Lebanon politics as opposition falters

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Posted by Paul Moloney 2005-06-14 02:08|| || Front Page|| [7 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 deserving of popcorn

Posted by 2b 2005-06-14 07:14|| 2005-06-14 07:14|| Front Page Top

#2 As an observer from the cheap seats - it's tough to see what's going on, but I can't help but wonder if this isn't a good result. There really was no one person who had what it took to lead Lebanon to independence from Syria's influence.

Wally was too cozy with Syria. He's your typical liberal who uses the poor to stand on their backs, promising he will tell the world of their problems and they will go away. Then just talk,talk,talk,blah,blah,blah, identifying problems all day long, or working on the BIG SOLUTION, they'll let you know what it is right after lunch. But be assured...when they are done with it, you can count on this: no child will be hungry, no one sick and lemonaide will spring where the blue-bird sings....lalalala. Peace and kumbaya. In short, Wally was milk-toast.

Hariri was a bit too slick for me. Though we'll never know what the father could or could not have done. But he certainly had enough power and money to do something. He's son strikes me as an overpolished pretty boy - but regardless, I don't think he had the experience or power base to make things happen.

Aoun would quickly become a tyrant. But one thing he does add to the mix is that Syria won't get the cozy, let's wink and make a deal relation ship, for the people, that they would have gotten if the others had gotten a clear lead.

So in short (ha, ha, as if this was short)I think it's good there is no clear majority. I think they will be forced to appeal to the people. No chance of anyone getting to cozy with Syria now, and no one group that Syria can just assasinate or corrupt.

Maybe I'm over optimistically looking for a silver lining, but given the players, I think this was a better result than any other.

Posted by 2b 2005-06-14 08:03|| 2005-06-14 08:03|| Front Page Top

#3 The sad thing is for all the talk of a Cedar Revolution and a new Lebanon, in the end it is still the same names bandied about that were there two decades ago, and the people still vote for the old names and the old slogans.

As long as the Jumblatt's and Hariri's and Phalangists and Hezbollah are around, there doesn't seem much chance of Lebanon going anywhere.

Posted by Paul Moloney 2005-06-14 09:18|| 2005-06-14 09:18|| Front Page Top

#4 are we all on the same planet? Jumblatt's dad (IIRC) was killed by the Syrians, hes been anti-Syrian for years. Aoun, OTOH, just DID do the wink and deal thing with the pro-Syrian groups. You cant keep looking at this through the prism of 1984.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-06-14 14:02|| 2005-06-14 14:02|| Front Page Top

#5 pehaps you missed my point.

Posted by 2b 2005-06-14 14:03|| 2005-06-14 14:03|| Front Page Top

#6 ya, ya, better no clear winner. ]

Which is wrong. Even if the opposition had won, no individual opposition leader could have dominated the others. Jumblatt, Hariri, and Geaga (whom you overlooked) would balance each other. The only purpose of Aoun here was to advance himself BY keeping the Syrians in the game.

Oh, and you did some kind of silly comparison of Jumblatt to American liberals. Which has little to do with the realities of the Druze in Lebanese politics. But its always best to see things throught the lens of American politics, isnt it?

Sorry to be as harsh sounding as this, but Lebanese politics is VERY complex, and has very deep roots, and using it to make a cheap (and off topic) point about American liberalism is sad.

Posted by liberalhawk 2005-06-14 14:07|| 2005-06-14 14:07|| Front Page Top

#7 granted I made a cheap point about American liberalism. But I'm not necessarily wrong because of it.

Using an American lens to make a comparison, with which I think you will agree, we here at home benefit from the argument between those who argue for more control by the state and those who argue we need less of it. It's been an ongoing argument since our founding fathers.

There is no clear leader in Lebanon right now who could take them where they want to go. They are better off continuing the argument until someone rises from the ashes who can lead. Jumblatt, much as I'm sure you like him, is not the man who could make it happen. It's clear he doesn't have what it takes to move them forward. The voting results prove my point. Nor did anyone else.

Saying it's too complicated is a smoke screen. Of course it's complicated. Just like it is in Iraq. Finding a balance between competing interests is often the best way to move forward. The result that they achieved will force that to occur.

Posted by 2b 2005-06-14 14:19|| 2005-06-14 14:19|| Front Page Top

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