Article

2008-08-11 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Cheney: "Russian aggression must not go unanswered"

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Posted by john frum 2008-08-11 00:00|| || Front Page|| [1 views ] Top

#1 But *what* consequences?

Is Cheney going to talk Bush into sending the Georgians help?

Or will Bush still "see into Putin's soul" and still be blind to the thuggery and megalomania Putin has?

Posted by OldSpook 2008-08-11 02:07|| 2008-08-11 02:07|| Front Page Top

#2 Interesting dilemma for America - one that the old KGB intelligensia have created just for that reason - what do we do?

Well, O Dark One, what do we do? How about first, parking some strategic military assets in the Baltic's to give Vlad an indication of his line in the sand. Or, how about convincing our Eurasian ally's like Kazakhstan, Azerbijan, Krygystan and others that they should open up bases for our tactical fighters, refuelers, transports, etc. What about an naval presence in the Black Sea, what now will Vlad do?

Posted by Jack is Back!">Jack is Back! 2008-08-11 04:37|| 2008-08-11 04:37|| Front Page Top

#3 If it does go unanswered then Putin is right, and we are just a bunch of pussies in a state of decline.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-08-11 07:52|| 2008-08-11 07:52|| Front Page Top

#4 kazakhstan isnt our ally, and Khygiz is isolated and very vulnerable. The Azeris support the Georgians, but what real power to the Azeris have - theyre also on the front line with Iran.

Nah, if we do anything, its stingers via Ukraine, Turkey, or both.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-11 09:29|| 2008-08-11 09:29|| Front Page Top

#5 The Georgians already have modern western SAMs.

This is not a war where attacks by helicopters will be significant and where shoulder fired SAMs will make a difference.

Russia has brought in all sorts of trash... their own 58th army (basically a rag tag counterinsurgency force), and part of the Vostok battalion. These are a Chechen militia noted for their brutality. For the real heavy lifting they have Spetsnaz and paratroopers.

If they occupy Georgia proper the Georgians will resist but it seems the Russians want to pummel them and then withdraw, holding onto Abkazia and South Ossetia. They will bring in Euro peacekeepers to keep the two sides apart. Georgia will have lost this territory.

If the Georgians want they can fight a low level resistance war in Abkazia and Ossetia but the price for this is continued instability, periodic Russian retaliation and damage to their economy. Bleeding the trash won't bother the Kremlin. The Vostok battalion is well suited for an irregular war. The best thing for Georgia might be to simply move on and join Europe.

Posted by john frum 2008-08-11 09:52|| 2008-08-11 09:52|| Front Page Top

#6 Europe threw Georgia to the bears to keep their posh lifestyle fueled by Russian energy.

Posted by lotp 2008-08-11 12:32|| 2008-08-11 12:32|| Front Page Top

#7 John Frum - I think you've identified the end game - A Georgian loss resulting in Georgia and Unkraine in NATO, with ground force bases established to the Caspian, and perhaps beyond. It will be most interesting what the Azeris, and later, the Kazakhs, do.

I suspect the biggest issue will be whether Ukraine can make its sovereignity of the Black Sea stick. If the Poles and Germans agree, I think so, but Russia will likely pull out all the separatist cards it has, from Moldova to the Chinese borders - which may bite them in the end.

They still seem to be relying on defense in depth, which seems less and less useful outside of extremely limited circumstances such as this.

Also, this probably means the end of whatever faint hopes there were of use of Russian "peacekeepers" within any UN structure.

Posted by Floluth Poodle6813 2008-08-11 12:35|| 2008-08-11 12:35|| Front Page Top

#8 JF - Georgia has already walked away from S ossetia, and Russia has already gone beyond. Putins initial calculation was that the loss of Ossetia and Abkhazia means the fall of Saalikhasvili. But the initial reports from Tbilisi are that he has acheived the opposite,the population has rallied around the govt, and are blaming Russia and also the West, but not their own leader. If Saal survives, and goes on to join NATO, thats a defeat and embarassment for Putin. Thats why Khalilzad was focusing on the issue - Putin has to push Saal out for a win - Putin has even taken to comparing Saal to Saddam Hussein. But to do THAT he has to punish the georgian people much further, till they break. He has to either push ground forces into rest of Georgia, or he has to hit them from the air.

Well a push into georgian cities means a guerilla war, that WONT go well for the Russians. and that leaves the air, which is why air defenses are important.

Posted by superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-11 12:45|| 2008-08-11 12:45|| Front Page Top

#9 What answer?

I'd say minutemen missiles in the ukraine and poland for starters, and nato control of georgian airspace.

Posted by flash91 2008-08-11 16:33|| 2008-08-11 16:33|| Front Page Top

#10 do we have any UACV's that don't have USA printed on them... Say South African or something.... fly them as combat support remotely in Georgia....

Posted by 3dc 2008-08-11 22:20|| 2008-08-11 22:20|| Front Page Top

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