Article

2008-08-12 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Fred Kagan: Situation Report, Russo-Georgian Conflict

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Posted by Sherry 2008-08-12 17:41|| || Front Page|| [6 views ] Top

#1 Why do I feel like there was something more we could have done there? Nothing rational comes to mind, but it seems like we emboldened them towards russia and didn't back them up when it counted.

Posted by bigjim-ky 2008-08-12 19:04|| 2008-08-12 19:04|| Front Page Top

#2 Now they have an excuse to heavily fortify the South Black Sea oil area and their 2 satellites, and they tested their new regular army without internal political problems because they did it quick.

We had no pressure points to press this time.

It's not over yet but things could be worse at this moment. Next time they will have the upper hand in a Black Sea conflict.

Posted by Jiggs Chiter5628 2008-08-12 19:13|| 2008-08-12 19:13|| Front Page Top

#3 I don't know what we could have done. I understand the desire to help the Georgians, but their proximity to Russia, the fact that they're otherwise surrounded by nasty neighbors, that the Black Sea access could be denied in a heartbeat by the Turks, and that air rights into Georgia are iffy, makes it unclear to me how we could help them directly.

That said, in the months ahead I suspect we'll be doing a fair bit to rebuild their military and help their country economically.

One more point: as the article by Robert Kaplan that I posted earlier makes clear, the region is a hornet's nest of different ethnic and linguistic groups. The Georgians would be smart to let the Ossetians (who speak a different language) and the Abkazians (ditto) go, and focus on building their own country. Trying to reincorporate these 'autonomous' regions into their country will be the death of them.

Posted by Steve White 2008-08-12 20:34|| 2008-08-12 20:34|| Front Page Top

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