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2008-09-15 Home Front: Politix

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Posted by tipper 2008-09-15 16:54|| || Front Page|| [4 views ] Top

#1 I'll believe it on election day if NY comes in close.

Posted by DarthVader 2008-09-15 17:17|| 2008-09-15 17:17|| Front Page Top

#2 Bush lost NY to Kerry by 25 points in 2004. However, if the Dinkins Effect is any indicator, Obama might be in trouble:

In the 1989 race for Mayor of New York, a poll conducted just over a week before the election showed black candidate David Dinkins holding an 18-point lead over white candidate Rudy Giuliani. Four days before the election, a new poll showed that lead to have shrunk, but still standing at 14 points. On the day of the election, Dinkins prevailed by only two points.

In 1993, just before Dinkins lost to Giuliani in the race for NYC mayor (by 8 points):

Oct. 26: Dinkins is leading Giuliani by 46 percent to 40 percent, still a statistical tie, according to a New York Times/WCBS-TV News poll.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-09-15 18:03|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-09-15 18:03|| Front Page Top

#3 Obama can lose a lot of states and still win. NY is not one of them.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2008-09-15 18:04|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2008-09-15 18:04|| Front Page Top

#4 If The One has to spend for media in NY, he's got a problem. CA next?

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-09-15 18:08|| 2008-09-15 18:08|| Front Page Top

#5 No longer. In Zogby polls they are nearly tied at electoral votes but if you check state by state you will see that a lot of those listed as Democrat or too close were polled in 08/08 a,nd have not been updated. Factor Mac Cain's august surge and the Palin effect and Mac Cain should have a comfortable lead.

Posted by JFM">JFM 2008-09-15 18:21|| 2008-09-15 18:21|| Front Page Top

#6 Obama, going down in flames. I can wait to hear the shrieking, wailing and let's not forget the gnashing of teeth when McCain is announced as the Da Prez™.

Posted by Goober Cheart1275 2008-09-15 22:13|| 2008-09-15 22:13|| Front Page Top

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