Article

2009-09-21 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Iran's Allies Have Reached the Tipping Point

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Posted by Fred 2009-09-21 00:00|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

#1 Wishful thinking.

Posted by gromky 2009-09-21 00:16|| 2009-09-21 00:16|| Front Page Top

#2 Not too sure about that. 1905 came before 1917. But there were a dozen years in between.

Posted by Fred 2009-09-21 08:36|| 2009-09-21 08:36|| Front Page Top

#3 Strategy Page recently pointed out the same thing. Apparently Hezbollah has been sounding much less warlike lately. This seems to be because they aren't sure their Iranian sugar daddies are going to be around much longer.

Posted by Frozen Al 2009-09-21 11:23|| 2009-09-21 11:23|| Front Page Top

#4 The problem here is that Irans leadership has not required majority support since around the death of Khomeini. Back in the 1980's the regime depended on the patriotic unity of the Iranian population in its very costly war against Iraq. But since this mass army was eventually broken on the battlefield (Iraq won by bleeding Iran until Iranian morale failed), popular support has been much less important, and the regime has not relied on the people to support the government.

They are a clique, a subset of a subset of clerics, who are dependent only on their oil revenues and the limited following that their fanaticism and money bring them. They are not dependent on the rest of Iran for any of their power or influence.

I don't think that the Iranian people or even the regime elements that have broken off can do much if anything to end the regime. The other side not only has the money and arms, but it has far more loyal and much less accountable Praetorians than did the Shah. I suspect that unless somehow their oil revenues are cut off they can maintain themselves for at least another generation.

Posted by buwaya 2009-09-21 18:40|| 2009-09-21 18:40|| Front Page Top

#5 They are a clique, a subset of a subset of clerics, who are dependent only on their oil revenues and the limited following that their fanaticism and money bring them. They are not dependent on the rest of Iran for any of their power or influence.

You left out the Revolutionary Guard; they control more of the Iranian economy than the clerics.

Posted by Pappy 2009-09-21 21:29|| 2009-09-21 21:29|| Front Page Top

#6 "who are dependent only on their oil revenues"

Nice one refinery ya' got there, Iran. Be a shame if anything were to happen to it....

Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut 2009-09-21 21:49|| 2009-09-21 21:49|| Front Page Top

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