Another defector report from North Korea. We all understand that a Nork invasion of the South would get as far as the first big box grocery store. But the Nork army is likely still very capable of suppressing the citizens and preventing a coup.
Newsnight has spoken to two North Korean defectors about life inside the secretive Stalinist state, one of whom says that he was an anti-tank battalion commander in North Korea's army before fleeing.
Unsurprisingly, voices from inside the country are rare - dissenting voices rarer still - but the BBC's Newsnight programme has spoken to two defectors who paint a grim picture of life inside North Korea. One of them is Joo-il Kim, who says he was an anti-tank battalion commander in North Korea's army for seven years until he fled the country in 2005.
The North has a vast conventional military, which correspondents say is the glue that holds the country together, but it is undermined by ageing conventional weaponry. According to Mr Kim, Pyongyang's lack of access to enough new conventional weaponry is what drives its controversial nuclear programme.
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"Conventional weapon-wise, North Korea is better equipped than South Korea," he told Newsnight reporter Mark Seddon. "But most of the weapons are outdated and so, to make up for that weakness, the North concentrates on missiles and nuclear arms development."
North Korea is believed to have more than 800 ballistic missiles, including long-range missiles.
In recent months it has a launched a series of missiles and conducted an underground nuclear test - increasing international tensions and drawing UN sanctions in response. And this month the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that North Korea had completed the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel rods to extract weapons-grade plutonium.
But although Mr Kim says the military is hampered by its increasingly archaic conventional weapons, what Pyongyang can call upon is vast manpower.
"Officially the North Korea armed forces number 1.2 million - these are the official numbers," Mr Kim said. "But they do not include the secret military service, so I do not know the exact figure of military personnel.
"About 100,000 people are conscripted annually and they serve for 10 years," he added.
But Mr Kim says that the severe famine of the 1990s, in which huge numbers of people died, and the Asian economic crisis in the same decade have taken their toll on the military.
"Previously discipline in the military was strong, but after the economic crisis in North Korea they could not control the armed forces," he said. "Because the economy was very bad many soldiers deserted. And the famine was also a problem, so discipline in the military has weakened."
The Chinese are the North's biggest trading partner and over the years have helped sustain Kim Jong-il's regime - fending off the most stringent of international sanctions. But since Pyongyang's first test of a nuclear device in 2006, there has been a reassessment of relations by Beijing.
Some experts have even speculated about the possibility of a Chinese sponsored coup d'etat should conditions catastrophically deteriorate. When asked for his view on such speculation, Mr Kim said that he thought it unlikely, but he did suggest that there have been internal uprisings in North Korea.
"I am not an expert in that area - but from the experience of living in North Korea the chances of a military coup with the backing of China or any other forces is very small. In the past, I wouldn't say exactly military coups - but there have been similar incidents that have happened before, which have failed."
Posted by Steve White 2009-11-28 00:00||
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#1 800 ballistic missiles, including long-range missiles.
Sans WMD nothing but 800 one-way light attack sorties.
As far as vast man-power.. maybe. Ifn I was the Sorks I'd be looking for the wall being breached by semi-armed, hungry relatives from the north, looking for the big-box stores.
Posted by Perry Stanford White 2009-11-28 07:12||
2009-11-28 07:12||
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#2 Sans WMD nothing but 800 one-way light attack sorties.
Aimed at Seoul, even with a 5% success rate, that's 40 opportunities to panic a city.
Posted by Pappy 2009-11-28 13:28||
2009-11-28 13:28||
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#3 True, but I expect artillery could do that job as easily and far more cheaply.
Posted by Perry Stanford White 2009-11-28 15:29||
2009-11-28 15:29||
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#4 But then again, who knows how many tubes North Korea has with the range to hit Seoul? Agit-Prop was big on hundreds if not thousands, opening up from their mountain fastness in a new version of the 1st morning of the Somme offensive.
Posted by Perry Stanford White 2009-11-28 15:33||
2009-11-28 15:33||
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#5 Conscripts have to serve 10 years? That would cause crippling resentment. Many would likely drop weapons in a march to the south.
Posted by Slath Prince of the Poles1925 2009-11-28 15:47||
2009-11-28 15:47||
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#6 True, but I expect artillery could do that job as easily and far more cheaply.
It's likely that they'd still be used. Not much beats missiles for psychological effect, tho.
Posted by Pappy 2009-11-28 19:14||
2009-11-28 19:14||
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