Article

2011-11-27 -Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Will the next world war be between China and the US?

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by ryuge 2011-11-27 07:58|| || Front Page|| [5 views ] Top

#1 No. I've thought long about this issue and the term world war simply doesn't apply to anything that happens between the US and China. China doesn't have enough allies and US allies are unlikely to be talked into such madness.

Plus it would likely end fast.

Posted by Rjschwarz 2011-11-27 08:16|| 2011-11-27 08:16|| Front Page Top

#2 Will the next ~~world~~ Proxy War be between China and the US?

Much like Cold War I, it will feature the play of surrogate states and agents seeking sponsorship in their play across the globe.

Posted by Procopius2k 2011-11-27 09:19|| 2011-11-27 09:19|| Front Page Top

#3 In that case we've been in a cold war for some time now. We (the US) just aren't acting like it.

Posted by CrazyFool 2011-11-27 09:22|| 2011-11-27 09:22|| Front Page Top

#4 I'd have to agree. China has been using Proxies (primarily North Korea) for some time and we've allowed them to play that game successfully. The end game is they move openly against Taiwan or Japan goes rogue convinced the US can no longer be trusted to defend them.

Either way its a dangerous game for China.

Posted by rjschwarz 2011-11-27 09:27|| 2011-11-27 09:27|| Front Page Top

#5 There are a bunch of possibilities, here. From the 1980s forward, the US and China both considered it inevitable; but "things change."

With China's naval build up, India decided that China was their serious threat, and they started to build up as well. And they are right next door, and have come to blows with China before.

This divided China's attention. But things became even more complicated when China recently decided to assert sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, right to the coastlines of all the other countries in the area. This has turned the whole region against China.

This leaves a bunch of possibilities wide open. From major to minor.

1) Sino-Indian ground war, maybe my suggestion of a "demographic war". With some naval engagements. Non-nuclear.

2) Sino-US war. Not just Taiwan, but because of economic crises, with war as more of a distraction. Non-nuclear, but could involve attacks in the US.

3) North Korean aggression or collapse. This could be very violent, or in the latter case, quite peaceful.

4) China decides it wants control of eastern Siberia, because more Chinese live there than Russians. Maybe Mongolia thrown in as well.

5) China against the assembled China Sea nations, mostly island snatching. But Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines could turn this really ugly.

6) Chinese military intervention in Africa, on the side of one of its allies, and in defense of its resource extraction. Likewise in Afghanistan, to protect its (projected) major mining enterprises there.

7) Unknown scenarios 7-20.

Posted by Anonymoose 2011-11-27 10:03|| 2011-11-27 10:03|| Front Page Top

#6 After we leave Afghanistan, those fun loving Paks go after India and the new PAK ally and primary arms supplier, China, decides it's found a way to deal with all those excess males and divert domestic attention from the rapidly deflating bubble. Game on.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2011-11-27 10:36|| 2011-11-27 10:36|| Front Page Top

#7 We (the US) just aren't acting like it

That's because the financial benefits of a cold war haven't gotten to the 'right people' yet.

Posted by Pappy 2011-11-27 11:12|| 2011-11-27 11:12|| Front Page Top

#8 I understand in the education of the youth of China we are the enemy. That future confrontation is inevitable. They have a big push on for the English language to be learned at this time. China has become an economic powerhouse. They don't have the natural resources so they must tie up all that they can. The race is on now to secure as much as possible to feed the needs of a modern country. Threatening their resources will provoke a quick response from them. Some in their military see this and argue for a more balanced approach to the world. The current leaders enjoy the current situation. When things go bad all will join in an united effort and those more open minded will become silent. So "Will the next war be between China and the US" if their resources are threatened or invaded will they react. We are however locked in an economic war. The costs for what they have done are a terrible burden based on economic growth. Lose growth and everything will choke off. The worst thing they have done is printing money. The second is tying up so much money in gold. The gold sits and just doesn't circulate. All their military production must be maintained and upgraded. So you see I don't view them in a strong position at this time. They must align themselves with others to feed war ambitions. I don't see those bonds. My two cents.

Posted by Dale 2011-11-27 13:09|| 2011-11-27 13:09|| Front Page Top

#9 Afghan mineral resources aren't that much of a prize. Kazakh and Russian projects can replace all, but aren't part of current development plans because of lack of immediate resource need.

There aren't that many clash points between the US and China. Even Taiwan is moving to associate statehood with the mainland. Trade and cultural integration continues at an exponential pace. Cheap electronics enjoyed by Americans wouldn't be there without Chinese components and cheap labor. Then there is the $1.5 trillion in China holdings of US debt. There isn't a good case for confrontation.

Posted by Sneamp Splat8837 2011-11-27 14:14|| 2011-11-27 14:14|| Front Page Top

#10
That's because the financial benefits of a cold war haven't gotten to the 'right people' yet.

As in getting our Chinese debt cancelled?

Posted by Abu Uluque 2011-11-27 15:13|| 2011-11-27 15:13|| Front Page Top

#11 Land war between china and India would be minimal because of the horrid terrain between the two.

Also china has no real power projection ability so war inafrica would be more supplying their favorites and providing experts.

I think the war with the us wouldbd primarily cyber warfare and saber rattling u less we dodo merging try out of character.

Posted by Rjschwarz 2011-11-27 15:18|| 2011-11-27 15:18|| Front Page Top

#12 Don't forget that China has something like 20 million expendable(no women for them) young men.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2011-11-27 15:50|| 2011-11-27 15:50|| Front Page Top

#13 ...that's why we inscrutable westerners invented World of Warcraft (et al) and cheap PCs. Now to convince those Chinese mothers to dig basements to keep the world and their sons safe!

Posted by Procopius2k 2011-11-27 17:26|| 2011-11-27 17:26|| Front Page Top

#14 No need to worry until they feel we can't pay them back.

Posted by gorb 2011-11-27 17:43|| 2011-11-27 17:43|| Front Page Top

#15 Please, one world war at a time.
WWI- from 1914-1918
WWII - from 1918-1945
WWIII - from ca. 1918-1989 (started with US troops diverted from WWI to fight the Red Army to the collapse of the USSR in 1989). The US 'won' that.
WWIV - what we're in now, started either in 1993 with the 1st WTC bombing or in 2001 with the 2nd.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2011-11-27 17:50|| 2011-11-27 17:50|| Front Page Top

#16 The argument or hyperposition that China won't fight the US because of the former's seeming lack of Miltech + Econ, etc. parity or superiority goes agz Chinese history.

IMO the real danger would be a third-party, violent conventional andor nuclear [limited?] mil conflict breaking out, e.g US-Israel versus Iran, Pakistan versus India, DPRK military incident, etc. which will pull in both the US + China agz the other. RUSSIA HAS UNILATERALLY INFERRED AS MUCH WID ITS RECENT WARNING THAT IT MAY FIGHT A "NUCLEAR WAR" [WW3] AGZ THE US-NATO ONE DAY IFF THE VARIOUS "SMALL/LOCAL CONFLICTS",
E.G. CAUCASUS INSURGENCIES, ESCALATE UNCONTROLLABLY.

"Post-US" wannabe Rising China wants sole or joint, PLA-controlled Base Rights [+ trade] ASAP AMAP ALAP to select ports or areas throughout the "First Island" Chain, to which it is currently achieving little to no progress as per the PLA. THIS DESIRE IS EXCLUSIVE OF THE GENERAL ISLAMIST THREAT TO IT + MAINLAND ASIA.

Iff a US-China conflict does occur, China = Iran = North Korea i.e. the burden will be on the US-Allies to come + invade its backyard.

versus

* TOPIX/MILFORUMS > WILL THE ALASKA NATIONAL GUARD BE THERE FOR US?

Local Citizens-Residents of Alaska worry that US federalization of most or vital units of the Alaska Guard + Reserves = ALASKA WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO DEFENSE WHEN THE RUSSIANS, ETAL. = MOTHERLY COMMIE AIRBORNE INVADE ALASKA + UPPER CANADA WID SEVERAL ARMY GROUPS LOOKING TO ARREST SARAH PALIN.

D *** NG IT, IT WASN'T THE NORTH KOREANS AT ALL!

LOL.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2011-11-27 19:00|| 2011-11-27 19:00|| Front Page Top

#17 Alaskans would like military-trained/experienced STATE DEFENSE FORCES responsible only to the Governor = State Govt, IIUC even in times of national contingency.

The Fed will need the State's formal permission to federalize them.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2011-11-27 19:08|| 2011-11-27 19:08|| Front Page Top

#18 I'm with Joe in #16.

Posted by Canuckistan sniper 2011-11-27 19:17|| 2011-11-27 19:17|| Front Page Top

#19 CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > [Financial Review] CHINA MAY TEST ITS POWER.

Beijing mulling its response to US re-engagement in Asia.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2011-11-27 19:45|| 2011-11-27 19:45|| Front Page Top

#20 AH, WW IV started in 1979.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2011-11-27 19:48|| 2011-11-27 19:48|| Front Page Top

#21 Cheap electronics enjoyed by Americans wouldn't be there without Chinese components and cheap labor.

Just sayin', a lot of the cheap components are made in the US and/or Korea and Japan.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2011-11-27 20:59|| 2011-11-27 20:59|| Front Page Top

#22 CHINESE MILITARY FORUM > [Financial Review] CHINA MAY TEST ITS POWER.

Beijing mulling its response to US re-engagement in Asia.

My guess is that this would be a pretext for doing something the Chinese have had in the works for a while, waiting for some American initiative they can label an unacceptable provocation.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2011-11-27 21:11|| 2011-11-27 21:11|| Front Page Top

#23 As in getting our Chinese debt cancelled?

No.

Contrary to popular belief, the last Cold War wasn't just a fiscal windfall for the "military-industrial complex". Other beneficiaries were academia and think tanks, mostly of liberal bent, and the political institutions that are fellow travelers.

Until the money starts flowing again to the right people, the phrase 'New Cold War' won't see the light of day.

Posted by Pappy 2011-11-27 22:03|| 2011-11-27 22:03|| Front Page Top

23:54 JosephMendiola
23:52 JosephMendiola
23:35 JosephMendiola
23:27 JosephMendiola
23:21 JosephMendiola
23:06 Iblis
22:50 Procopius2k
22:47 Lionel Hatrack3498
22:42 Procopius2k
22:20 Mullah Richard
22:18 trailing wife
22:06 Pappy
22:05 Pappy
22:03 Pappy
21:55 Rambler in Virginia
21:53 trailing wife
21:53 ryuge
21:52 Pappy
21:28 Rambler in Virginia
21:13 trailing wife
21:11 Zhang Fei
20:59 Thing From Snowy Mountain
20:32 JosephMendiola
20:05 JosephMendiola