Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
#1 Like Lebanese need an outside reason to shoot at each other.
Posted by g(r)omgoru 2012-02-11 11:43||
#2 I was trying to calculate the best strategy for Israel with AP. Currently Israel is faced with a zillion weapons from Iran, Hezb, Syria and Gaza. In a sense all under control of the Shia Iran. Now the Muz Brotherhood (Sunni) who actually hate Israel more than the Shia are cleaning up the tables west of Iraq. (North Af. Egypt, in action in Yemen, Syria) ... etc.. these are the boys who breed Osamas... First thing... this internecine conflict could buy Israel a little time until one side or the other tries to gain some street cred by doing something to the Jews.... But .. it's looking like in the end the Brotherhood is likely to prevail.
So Israel's first strategic question should be "How to make sure the missiles are destroyed or rendered less then useful when control changes?"
The second should be "Should Israel then take out Iran or wait and render the Muz Brotherhood ineffective before they can really organize control?" I see "render ineffective" as being lots of "Insha'Allah Maintenance Moments" -- things like major failures in the Aswan or virii in the Libyan centerpivots taking out a crop... sort of non-attributable actions to render a newly consolidating set of regimes less effective as an enemy...
Posted by Water Modem 2012-02-11 12:01||
#3 Strategically speaking, Israel's best advantage is for Muslim nations surrounding them to have more democratic governments, and less sponsorship from Europe, Russia, China and the US, that provides them with dangerous technologies.
From there, they want more moderation in the more democratic Muslim nations, namely that they do not scapegoat Israel for their numerous problems.
While there are great concerns about the MB in Egypt, if they can just keep their radicalism under wraps for a bit longer, they will realize that Egypt is a terrible mess and is rapidly falling apart, so belligerence can wait.
Syria would be much improved with Assad out of power and the Sunnis in charge, as between the Ba'athists and the MB, the bottom line is that it is just as fouled up as Egypt, but on a smaller scale. Likewise too busy to start fights.
With Assad out, Hezbollah will have lost its primary support chain, and unless they can seize control of Lebanon, they will have no choice but to settle down, too.
Posted by Anonymoose 2012-02-11 12:42||
#4 Strategically speaking, Israel's best advantage is for Muslim nations surrounding them to have more democratic governments,
The problem with democracy for Muslim countries is that the leadership is far more moderate than the populace, and the leadership is about as moderate as Hitler. We are fortunate, indeed, that they rule over nations without Germany's industrial vigor. In Germany, democracy led to Nazism and the extermination of European Jewry. It took three of the biggest powers in the world five years and tens of millions of dead (including 10% of the German population) before the German people were made to understand that Nazi ideology was a dead end for them. And Germans were a people who had produced Goethe, Beethoven, Kant and scores of other giants in the arts, philosophy and sciences.
Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-02-11 17:05||
#5 Zhang Fei - That's why I didn't mention democracy.
Posted by Water Modem 2012-02-11 19:11||
#6 Depending upon where you lived, the great plague took out 30, 40 or 50 percent of the population. Given the recent notices of people screwing around with the flu virus et al, its just a matter of time before something gets out of hand. Those geographical areas lacking extensive modern health, sanitation, and movement control will be the most subject to the highest casualty count in the case of any outbreak. Little hard to wage war when the bulk of your population is dying around you. Nukes are so 20th Century.
Posted by Procopius2k 2012-02-11 19:51||