Article

2014-07-19 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

MH17 some curious points to imagine and ponder

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Posted by Anon1 2014-07-19 00:14|| || Front Page|| [6 views ] Top

#1 Careful. You could blame SpaceX if this causes the next delivery of LockMart/ULA engines for the Atlas 5 soon due to go belly up.

This would leave SpaceX and Boeing the only viable EELV class rocket sources.

Conspiracy theory quickly leads to madness. Occam's Razor.

Posted by 3dc 2014-07-19 02:09|| 2014-07-19 02:09|| Front Page Top

#2 shame on me, of course it is "Occam's razor" not "Ockham's razor". It's not the only bad spelling I have been lazy enough to let slip. Well it was just an idle set of thoughts to while away a rainy Saturday afternoon.... It won't be long before real conspiracy theorists start jamming their "9/11 was done by jooos" logic into the wheel

Posted by anon1 2014-07-19 02:44|| 2014-07-19 02:44|| Front Page Top

#3 The US has clear IR signature of the missile launch track and detonation flash, as well as ELINT of the tracking, lock on, guidance and terminal homing signatures. Go read up on SBIRS, and other non air breathing overhead recon assets. Also check out US Satellites pin down precise missile launch Point Of Origin

Posted by OldSpook 2014-07-19 03:27|| 2014-07-19 03:27|| Front Page Top

#4 hello Old Spook glad to see you here again after all these years. Impressive facts. I think it's an open and shut case right there.

Posted by anon1 2014-07-19 06:56|| 2014-07-19 06:56|| Front Page Top

#5 Thanks for that bit of sanity OS. I've seen other tin hat assessments as well. The simple answer [in this case] may be the only correct answer. At least one advanced Russian Air Defense system and trained Russian crew was pushed across the border with the intention of bringing down Ukrainian military aircraft.

The key 'take aways' [yes there are two] isn't the downing of an aircraft. A shoot-down or proof of concept was surely inevitable. A key 'take away' is the failure of the US intelligence apparatus to share this key deployment and escalation with the Ukrainian military and international aviation community. This speaks to the total disengagement of the Washington regime.

The second 'take away' was the removal and return to Mother Russia of the system with one empty launcher, without cover, in broad daylight, where it was easily videotaped and viewed via overhead. Not enough that the Russian stops to piss at the edge of the woods, he must also face oncoming traffic.

Bottom line: Be advised, the Russians are willing to deploy and use this and other systems against civilian and military aircraft to protect their interests in the Ukraine, Syria, and possibly Iran. The worst has now happened on the front porch of the weakest POTUS in the history of the United States. Everything from here on out will be business as usual for the Bear.

Posted by Besoeker 2014-07-19 07:10|| 2014-07-19 07:10|| Front Page Top

#6 which bear/

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2014-07-19 07:24|| 2014-07-19 07:24|| Front Page Top

#7 "I did it to them; I'll do it to you. Keep making selfies and hashtags, and stay out of Ukraina.

Posted by badanov 2014-07-19 08:16|| http://www.chriscovert.net 2014-07-19 08:16|| Front Page Top

#8 What idiot of an air traffic controller would route planes over a war zone?

I also read this plane was not in the corridor preceded/followed by other planes. I think accident but with a slight taste of setup.

Posted by BrerRabbit 2014-07-19 08:17|| 2014-07-19 08:17|| Front Page Top

#9 You forgot one potential conspirator, Anon1; Airbus. All these Boeing disasters have to benefit the competition.
I had much the same thought about the peculiar coincidence of both of the recent major commercial air travel disasters being with the same small carrier - really long odds. But I'll accept Occam. Now if there is a THIRD Malaysia Airlines disaster .....

Posted by Glenmore 2014-07-19 08:37|| 2014-07-19 08:37|| Front Page Top

#10 This is simple enough that it could be in the game Clue:

Russian separatists, with the SA-11s, in Donetsk.

No conspiracy needed, or welcome. We do not need to cloud the required clarity of focus for what comes next.

The real issue is whether the shooters thought they were nailing a Ukrainian transport aircraft (more likely) or were deliberating shooting down a civilian airliner.

Answer that question. Then answer the obvious questions, how did the separatists get the SA-11 system, who operated it, who trained them, and why did it bug out for Mother Russia? These questions pretty much answer themselves but the process of documentation will be useful.

Russia (Putin) is responsible. They've backed the separatists from day one. Russia wants the Crimea and eastern Ukraine as part of the motherland. They may want the western part as well. Putin is trained in the martial arts -- he understands strength, weakness, and pivot points very well. He's using his strengths here and counting on his opponents weaknesses.

Putin has weaknesses himself. The recent success and reorganization of the Ukrainian military was a surprise to Putin, I believe. I believe he thought his pawns would stand better in a fight. His logistics are still a mess. His own military isn't as good as the world would think. He needs to keep this fight below the threshold that would unite Europe (i.e., Germany) against him. And now the world can (should) see clearly that Putin is happy to blow away hundreds of innocents at a time if that is what it takes.

Despite these clear weaknesses, we don't have a president/administration that will take advantage. Instead we have our own principal weakness: Barack Obama. He's not very bright, though we'll all concede that he is extremely cunning. He's surrounded himself with third-class talent that is more into hashtags and yachting than in the serious business of foreign policy. Obama himself has no interest in foreign affairs. He is nothing more than an appetite.

So on one side we have a clear thinking autocrat and on the other side we have a weakling. Any guesses as to how this will turn out?

Posted by Steve White 2014-07-19 10:15|| 2014-07-19 10:15|| Front Page Top

#11 Like Steve White said.

Posted by Uncle Phester 2014-07-19 10:35|| 2014-07-19 10:35|| Front Page Top

#12 ..and give that the Euros aren't rushing to rearm (even Chamberlain regenerated his rearmament after Munich), its not going to be fun to live close to the bear.

Even if the one were to be replaced by a far more competent and realistic leader, I don't see the 'will' for America committing significant ground troops or the major allocation of its defense budget to protect a Europe that demonstrates by its lack of action any concern other than to issue strongly worded statements.

Posted by Procopius2k 2014-07-19 10:48|| 2014-07-19 10:48|| Front Page Top

#13 how did the separatists get the SA-11 system
There was mention online even before MH17 was downed that Ukraine lost one of its BUK systems to the rebels.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2014-07-19 11:39|| 2014-07-19 11:39|| Front Page Top

#14 Thanks OS, I was wondering if we could pick that up. Now the question is: Why Malaysia airlines? There was constant traffic across that route. If they would have shot down any first world aircraft some action would have been unavoidable, IE dragging Germany or France into the war. They hit the only country that flies that route that has no ream means of retaliation. I don't believe in coincidence of just dumb luck.

Posted by 49 Pan 2014-07-19 11:47|| 2014-07-19 11:47|| Front Page Top

#15 So good to see all my old favourites, badanov, nimble spemble, uncle phester, steve white, hoping trailing wife is around and happy too.

All very interesting

Particularly like the speculation of accident or deliberate

And putin or militia

Interestingly China is supporting Russia by its mealymouthed "too early to tell" pronouncements when it seems there is plenty of evidence as to where it came from, just not why.

Perhaps Putin did shoot the airline down on purpose, not an accident

But with plausible deniability that it was deliberate

So he could send a message to the world "dont f* with me over ukraine"

Maybe it is a real hard shove of the boundaries

He is truly the hitler of the new century. He would be a cartoon old world dictator straight out of history books if he weren't so frighteningly alive now

Posted by Anon1 2014-07-19 13:13|| 2014-07-19 13:13|| Front Page Top

#16 It's like the Polonium Poisoning: they want us to know they did it and that our "authorities" are going to look the other way and demand an "investigation," run out the clock, and pretend they're being just.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-07-19 13:14|| 2014-07-19 13:14|| Front Page Top

#17 Ahhh thing from snowy mountain! Glad to see you!

Yes yes that polonium poisoning : exactly the same tactic i am thinking of

They want you to know

They want the veneer of deniability to be thin so everyone knows

The lesson is: we can get you even in a london restaurant. We can get you anywhere and look your governments are not going to do anything about it

The primary audience is likely dissidents. It discourages them as it snuffs out hope they can get help outside

Posted by Anon1 2014-07-19 13:19|| 2014-07-19 13:19|| Front Page Top

#18 Pan and Pappy - that article (not me, but the article, for legal purposes) says we have systems that get that data acquired, machine analyzed and cross checked very quickly. If you will note, in the article I linked, they actually say US sources had the launch PO (Point of Origin) and initial track of the missile determined a minute BEFORE the missile impacted the target. Think about that.

I can neither confirm nor deny the accuracy of such reports. One might consider that such a system that delivers such accurate information with such accuracy as well as a FLASH traffic messaging system world wide, in order to warn US Military Aircraft might be something of fairly great utility to the US Department of Defense in protecting its aircraft. Just saying that if such a system can be imagined, it might have been built years ago. And perhaps the command authority would have had the reports of the full engagement including aircraft impact/detonation before the aircraft actually hit the ground. And that given the Ukraine is a hot spot, there would be assets tasked for coverage of the region, including "long look" and "long stare" assets (there is a difference)

That is, of course, making an assumption that National Command Authority, including the CINC and his immediate staff security advisors, had any interest in actually staying alert to such things, instead of eating lunch with the commoners and going to closed private fund raisers.

Posted by OldSpook 2014-07-19 13:21|| 2014-07-19 13:21|| Front Page Top

#19 TL;DR => The US Intelligence community knew it was the Putin supplied Russians who did this before the aircraft even hit the ground, thanks to technical assets. Anything else is politics.

Posted by OldSpook 2014-07-19 13:28|| 2014-07-19 13:28|| Front Page Top

#20 Anon1: I don't think they shot down the airliner with the intent of going with this propaganda line. I think it's more of a "If Life Gives You Lemons, Make Lemon Drops" sort of thing.

Remember, up to now they've been pushing the whole "The West is weak after spending a decade and a half trying to fight the Arabs, and then suffering Obama's mismanagement, we're Strong Again, We're Flush With German/EU Money, and We're Gonna Put The Band Back Together."

Except we just found out that even where their technology is sticking together and prevailing, it's run by a bunch of Cheap Rent-a-Chechens or worse, Uzbeks, of the "Uzbeks drank my battery acid!" type.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-07-19 13:38|| 2014-07-19 13:38|| Front Page Top

#21 In short, while they can buy better electronics and guidance systems for their command-launched missiles, they can't just buy decent personnell, unless they get a better deal from Germany and decide to cut out the middle man. Then the Ukranians can ask for the EU (which is mainly Germany) to protect them against the Germans invading them from Russia.

Have a headache yet? Financially, that's what's happening there _now_, only without the people.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-07-19 13:47|| 2014-07-19 13:47|| Front Page Top

#22 Oh, and finally: I do think it's worthwhile to look at all the people who are calling for an "investigation" of what happened here, in particular China... and does this offer hints to what happened to MH370? Did something happen to it somewhere out where the SBIRS wasn't looking.

If we're just gonna brainstorm, think about this: What happens wrt acts of war against China when it can't be traced to a country they're interested in going to war against _and_ they're in the middle of trying to provoke firefights with both the Philipines and Vietnam?

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2014-07-19 13:59|| 2014-07-19 13:59|| Front Page Top

#23 MH370 is sitting on the ground some where in SE Asia being prepared for a real doozy of a terrorist attack on some major city within the cruising range of a 777.

The fact that NOTHING has been found of the aircraft tells me it did not crash in the Indian Ocean. Something that big does not hit the water at 180 mph without scattering tons of floating crap everywhere.

It is time to start tracking purchases of JP-5 to see if some small airport in the SE is buying lots of the stuff for no apparent reason.

That jet will resurface and someone will have hell to pay when it does.

Posted by Bill Clinton 2014-07-19 14:35|| 2014-07-19 14:35|| Front Page Top

#24 It would be cute if "rogue" SS-11 unit shot down a certain dictators Hind.. just before it was supposed to pick him up.

Posted by 3dc 2014-07-19 15:34|| 2014-07-19 15:34|| Front Page Top

#25 US systems generally are not tasked in areas where there is no urgent or important target. Technical assets are limited, and due to the nature of most threats, tasking must be prioritized. Plus the history of threats has generally been in the northern hemisphere so that is where most assets are set up to dwell. In most of the southern hemisphere other than SE Asia, Africa and South America landmasses, there is of little immediate military consequence that would require such technical high-resource (ELINT, IR) intelligence gathering, especially in the southern oceanic areas. So MH370 was in a "blind spot", not by design but by happenstance.

Posted by OldSpook 2014-07-19 20:00|| 2014-07-19 20:00|| Front Page Top

#26 3dc: You mean SA-11. SS-11 is a whole different beast (Soviet strategic ICBM, Minuteman counterpart, thankfully no longer in operation).

Posted by OldSpook 2014-07-19 20:07|| 2014-07-19 20:07|| Front Page Top

#27 Gotta agree w/ Bill C about 370 being a reusable container. don't know if JP will be the agent of choice, but some sort of bomb is coming wrapped in a Boeing delivery package.

Posted by USN, Ret. 2014-07-19 20:15|| 2014-07-19 20:15|| Front Page Top

#28 N. B. Occam and Ockham are just variant spellings. Take your pick, but either almost certainly and accurately covers what happened.

Of all his faults (and they're approaching the infinite) this is way down the list for the POTUS. The far more interesting situation is Western European energy resources - particularly the Germans. The farther west you get, the less influence Russia has. To the extent they will supply Eastern Europe, they will further commercial ties, military ties, and cut Russian sway.

The process is well underway, and as the west and/or Kurd/Israeli resources come into play, the effects will increase.

Doubtful if Putin can stop, or even delay it.

Posted by Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division 2014-07-19 20:52|| 2014-07-19 20:52|| Front Page Top

23:18 Galactic Coordinator Jinemble5612
21:39 Zenobia Floger6220
21:35 Odysseus
20:52 Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division
20:30 swksvolFF
20:15 USN, Ret.
20:13 OldSpook
20:10 OldSpook
20:10 USN, Ret.
20:07 OldSpook
20:00 OldSpook
19:55 Skidmark
19:37 Lemuel tse Tung6767
19:33 badanov
19:21 3dc
19:15 3dc
19:15 swksvolFF
19:11 Shipman
18:47 Cliter Borgia1094
18:21 M. Murcek
18:01 M. Murcek
18:01 Halliburton - Mysterious Conspiracy Division
17:28 Charles
16:54 AlanC