There is a major cottage industry among Washington analysts in Karzaiology. Karzaiologists spend weeks and months pouring over the tea leaves of the Afghan president's latest outburst or rash decision and periodically emerge to pronounce upon the United States' prospects for success in Afghanistan. I was a practiced hand in Karzaiology for years. According to the Washington Post, "There is near-universal agreement among top U.S. officials involved in Afghanistan that Karzai's behavior and leadership have a direct bearing on the outcome of the multinational counterinsurgency mission." That must be why he's so irrelevant. What would we do without top officials?
My guess, unless there is fraud being committed, is that this is the beginning of the "baby-boomer" withdrawal from the workforce. The next set of figures should clarify if this is so.
My guess is early retirements and two-income households rediscovering, by necessity, the advantages of having a stay-at-home houseperson.
While today's unemployment number came at a low 9.4%, well below expectations, the one and only reason for this is that the labor force in America has plunged to a fresh 25 year low. Assuming a reversion to the mean in the long-term average participation rate back to 66%, means that the civilian labor force, which in December came at 153,690, a drop of 260,000 from November, is in reality 157.6 million, a delta of 3.91 million currently unaccounted for. Maybe someone can ask Bernanke during his imminent presentation before Congress what happened to the unemployed population, which would have been 18.4 million if this labor force delta was incorporated, resulting in an unemployment rate of 11.7%.
#1
As one of those boomers I can corroberate this guess annecdotally.
2 years ago I got a choice, early retirement or a transfer to Mexico City. I crunched the numbers and found that I won't starve and took the deal. Now I substitute teach ... you can figure out what bucket I'm in.
Posted by: Alan Cramer ||
01/08/2011 14:28 Comments ||
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#2
We had another big layoff last week - Big international Corporation. I survived but a lot of good people were let go.
This partial collapse of the euro is inevitable, and Europe's leaders should focus on the next step: Their challenge now is to lay the groundwork for a sustainable currency union in the future, once exiting countries reform themselves enough to rejoin. To do so, however, they will need to take stock of the institutional deficiencies undermining the current union, so that the new eurozone is more crash-proof than the last one.
Europe must do far more to cut the growth of government spending -- the only credible path to preventing ballooning deficits. But it needs to go even a step beyond that: Europe must agree on measures that prevent countries from behaving irresponsibly to take advantage of their membership in the eurozone. One of the reasons that Italy and Greece spent so much is that their interest rates on debt fell dramatically when they joined the eurozone, making deficit finance more attractive. There is no substitute for the creation of a fiscal union, which would centralize enforcement power that could credibly control spending. A currency union cannot survive without a corresponding fiscal union.
But fiscal reform is not enough without measures to strengthen the competitiveness of southern Europe. Southern European countries, notably Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece, are finding it increasingly difficult to compete in global trade -- the result of restrictive union contracts and labor laws -- and have accordingly suffered from high current account deficits and high unemployment. If left unchecked, these dynamics will produce a political powder keg of widening interregional economic-welfare differences that would threaten the long-term cohesion of the union.
Posted by: Frozen Al ||
01/08/2011 00:00 ||
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#3
It would probably do them better if they made the Euro a virtual conversion currency.
That is, national currencies would only be valid in their country of origins, based on their internal markets. But when you traveled to a different country, you would carry a secure thumbdrive that would convert, say, Lira to Deutschmarks *via* Euros, at the current exchange rate.
Formerly, the conversion would have been direct, but by converting through Euros, EU controls can be used.
Of course, knowing those boogers, they would want to include a conversion tax, which would screw up the whole system.
[Arab News] The liquidation of Salman Taseer is seemingly not enough with Pak religious scholars now targeting Sherry Rehman, the country's former minister of information and a member of the National Assembly.
Prayer leaders across Pakistain, during Friday sermons, gave vent to their anger against Rehman who had deposited a private members' bill before the National Assembly seeking an amendment to the blasphemy law.
The ruling Pakistain People's Party (PPP) did not support the bill and Rehman was forced to withdraw it.
Interior Minister Rehman Malik also advised Rehman, a former journalist, to leave the country for her own safety. Malik told her on phone to leave the country at the earliest because "fanatics are hell bent to take her life due to her views on blasphemy laws."
Malik cited intelligence reports that gunnies were after her and advised her to go abroad for the time being. Rehman, however, refused to leave the country. She told Malik that she would not be attending the National Assembly session due to inadequate security in the federal capital. She also told Malik that she felt more secure in Bloody Karachi than in Islamabad.
Pak authorities increased security for the former minister, a vocal critic of the country's blasphemy law, in the wake of the liquidation of Punjab Gov. Salman Taseer for opposing the controversial law.
The number of coppers deputed to guard Rehman's home in Bloody Karachi was increased. Security cover for Rehman was also upgraded on the order of the Bloody Karachi police chief, officials said. Other then her initiative to "reform" the blasphemy law, religious scholars accuse her of being a smoker.
Posted by: Fred ||
01/08/2011 00:00 ||
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#1
The number of coppers deputed to guard Rehman's home in Bloody Karachi was increased.
[Asharq al-Aswat] Hoping to regain a measure of legitimacy in the wake of the disputed presidential election in 2009, Iran's President Mahmoud Short Round Ahmadinejad may be trying to recast himself as a nationalist leading a struggle against foreign foes.
We have already noted this trend in previous columns as, slowly but surely, the president abandoned the standard Islamist discourse in favour of a nationalist one.
Now, there are fresh signs to confirm the trend.
On Tuesday, Ahmadinejad made a trip to Semnan, the native province of his parents, to inaugurate some real or imaginary projects. At a gathering of his supporters, he made an hour-long speech in which, according to the text published by the official news agency IRNA, the word Islam was not mentioned once.
Ahmadinejad spoke of "the land of the pure" one of the names that ancient Aryans gave to Iran as they settled in it. Instead of using the word "ummah" which denotes the Mohammedan community and is favoured by the mullahs, the president used the word "mellat" which means "nation" in Persian.
He developed his new theme of the "Iranian school", as opposed to the "Islamic school", and claimed that, thanks to its ancient civilisation, Iran was capable of offering mankind leadership.
On his arrival, Ahmadinejad received a list of demands by the local population.
According to the province's Director of Cultural Affairs, Hamid Yazdani, top of the list was a demand for the extension of an exhibition in Tehran. There, the item on exhibit is the famous Cyrus Cylinder that contains an edict by Cyrus the Great the founder of the Persian Empire.
The cylinder is on loan from the British Museum in London and is due to be returned there next week.
"The people of Semnan wish to see a relic of a civilisation that brought light to the world," Yazdani claimed.
All that is anathema to the mullahs who claim that, before Islam appeared to end "the Age of Darkness", there was no civilisation anywhere in the world. The late Ruhallah Khomeini, the mullah who founded the regime, hated such words as "nation" and Iran. This is why he insisted that Iran's parliament, known as the National Consultative Assembly of Iran, be renamed the Islamic Consultative Assembly. In almost every government institution, the word Iran was replaced by the word Islamic. Ayatollah Sadeq Khalkhali, one of the founders of the Khomeinist regime, even suggested that Iran be re-named Islamistan.
"Nationalism is a sin and a disease," Khalkhali wrote in 1981.
Ahmadinejad's nationalistic twist has been criticised by mullahs including "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenehi.
The president has responded with defiance. "There are people who are afraid of the word Iran," he said in a recent speech. "Let them be! This is Iran and we are Iranians."
In December, he despatched the Revolutionary Guards to stop a group of Islamists from destroying the ancient remains of the Temple of Anahita the Goddess of Fertility in Kangavar, west of Tehran.
Ahmadinejad may be a late convert to a trend that one might call Iranism. The trend has affected almost all Iranian political groups including almost all the opposition.
Former Prime Minister Mir Hussein Mussavi, the man who claims to have won the 2009 presidential election against Ahmadinejad, has adopted an almost entirely nationalistic discourse. He no longer uses the title seyyed that denotes his claim of decent from seventh Imam of Shi'ism.
A man who denied the very existence of an Iranian nation in the 1980s has recast himself into the role of its legitimate front man.]
The Mujahedin Khalq, a guerrilla outfit that helped Khomeini win power, started as a cocktail of Marxist and Islamist groups with is own flag, insignia and anthem. In recent years, however, it has moved into the opposition and rallied under Iran's national flag and "lion and sun" insignia. As for its anthem, it has adopted the "O Iran" hymn, one of the most popular tributes to Iranian nationalism.
Even the more openly Marxist groups, such as the People's Fedayeen Guerrillas, have almost totally abandoned their leftist discourse in favour of one that emphasises nationalism and democracy.
Almost all Iranian political movements opposing the Khomeinist regime have adopted the green-white-red tricolour flag, the Lion and Sun insignia, and the hymn "O Iran!".
Iranism is affecting all aspects of life in Iran.
Many public speeches now start with the phrase "In The Name of God and Iran."
The number of visitors to ancient ruins and monuments, including the tomb of Cyrus the Great at Pasargad north of Shiraz, is growing by leaps and bounds. The Cyrus Cylinder exhibition, in Tehran's Museum of Ancient Iran, drew record crowds. People queued all night long to enter the exhibition that Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim Masha'i claims to be the most popular in Iranian history.
For the first time since the mullahs came to power, Iranian embassies and offices of the government-owned airline abroad have been ordered to display posters showing some of Iran's pre-Islamic monuments.
The return of Iranism is the latest sign of Iran's split personality. As a people, the Iranians have a history that spans almost 30 centuries. Half of that time-span is covered by Iran's ancient glory whilst Iran was a major contributor to the creation of an Islamic civilisation in the other half. To reject either half would be to deny a major part of the Iranian identity.
People like Khomeini, who denied the existence of an Iranian identity, resembled those Marxist internationalists who favoured class solidarity over nationalism.
It is too early to decide whether Ahmadinejad's attempt at posing as an Iranian nationalist has any chance of success.
His new discourse might resonate with segments of the urban middle classes as well as part of the military. It may also mislead some people into believing that Ahmadinejad's provocative foreign policy is motivated by national interest rather than ideological considerations.
The new discourse may also help the government justify its policy of repression against Iran's ethnic and religious minorities as they become more vocal in their demands for autonomy and cultural rights.
In the end, however, Ahmadinejad's move towards the last refuge of the scoundrel, is unlikely to succeed. A repressive regime with an anti-Iranian ideology cannot be transformed overnight into one motivated by patriotism. Beating the drum of ancient glories will not change the fact that the Iranian economy is losing 3,000 jobs each day while growth is in sub-zero regions. Nor will it prevent a substantial number of Iranians from sincerely believing that Ahmadinejad stole the 2009 election.
Whether he talks of Iran or Islam, many nationalists and at least some Islamists will find it hard to trust a leadership that has isolated the country and is keeping it in a state of perpetual crisis.
Continued on Page 49
Posted by: Fred ||
01/08/2011 00:00 ||
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A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
[Arab News] The 
