The leftist newsweekly, Proceso, arguably one of the best written publications in the world in any language last week released through its APRO news service a dour assessment of the most recent violence at the southern border of Tamaulipas state and the northern border of Veracruz state.
Liberals have agendas and so do those who read and support Proceso, by this writer's estimate about five percent of Mexico's adult population max. So, it is horrible that drug gang violence is taking place in this area, around Tampico, and it probably always has been. No one really likes violence except maybe for the gangbanger shooters the cartels hire these days.
Most conveniently left out of Proceso's prose is the reason why violence has spiked in the area.
The last major shootings in Tampico before last December took place around Easter weekend of 2011 when groups of truck-borne armed suspects decided to celebrate the Resurrection of Our Lord by shooting up the place at night, then going into hiding the next day.
A common event for Mexicans in Tampico on that weekend, undoubtedly a very warm holiday weekend, is to take to the beaches and generally have a good time for Easter, after church of course. This writer has never been that far south in Mexico, but were I a betting man, that would be my bet.
Mexicans are no different that anyone else, They love their families; they like to have a good time, and they don't want to see anyone get hurt having a good time.
The Summer of 2011 was a terrible summer in Tamaulipas.
For some unknown reason the leader of a Los Zetas gang in San Fernando, Tamaulipas began sometime in April, 2011 to hijack buses, rob everyone, rape women, and allegedly recruited shooters into their ranks, killing those that were not to be used for their cannon fodder. That was but for a brief time in March and April. The crimes that group committed stretched from at as far back as the Summer of 2010 into spring 2011, when the first of the mass graves around San Fernando were discovered.
A total of 193 individuals were murdered and buried in mass plots in and around San Fernando, many of them migrants from Mexico as well as central and south American and all likely victims of extortion, robbery and rape. The death toll in San Fernando that summer has been eclipse only by the graves discovered in and around Durango city in Durango, which at last count totaled 280. Unlike San Fernando, the Durango graves were from victims stretching back as far as 2004. San Fernando went back only as far as the summer of 2010. In terms of abject bloodiness, San Fernando almost certainly eclipses Durango.
Tamaulipas has long had a problem with the drug trade. The three major crossings from Tamaulipas, Reynosa, Matamoros and Nuevo Laredo have been points of contention between Los Zetas, and the Gulf and now Sinaloa Cartels. Reading some of Proceso's articles on the area, a heavy political and social cost had been imposed on the state as well.
The heavy political cost was represented by an exemplar of cartel governance of an area. On any given day when clashes took place between drug gangs and federal security forces, newspaper websites in those three crossings cities were strangely quiet, almost as if nothing was really going on. Whenever an ongoing battle took place, the only news leaking out would be Twitter posts by private individuals and local government officials, advising residents about ongoing gun battles.
Proceso in one article in 2010 explained that the reason for press silence was cartels were constantly threatening newspapers and their reporters for their reportage. Some comments made in national publications said, without much attribution, that some newspapers in Tamaulipas were under control of drug gangs. So why risk personal harm reporting violent event when you can report on the latest government news release that would not incur cartel anger?
So without really showing it, the press in Tamaulipas made a quite public display of how a cartel in control of municipalities in Mexico would be: Press freedom at the whim of a well-heeled criminal, backed by the force of arms. The curbing of press freedoms were not nationwide to be sure. In Juarez for example, the press is vigorous and critical of both criminal gangs and of government. Northern Tamaulipas was similar to the Mexican Sierras where cartels continue to operate with complete impunity.
On February 2011 on Army Day, Mexican General Guillermo Galvan Galvan announced that four new rifle battalions were to be deployed to Tamaulipas. Somehow the PRI dominated Chamber of Deputies only a few months before released funds sufficient to raise new troops to aid in the fight against the drug cartels, enough for 18 new units. Apparently in the intervening time as the Mexican Army reinforced its efforts in Tamaulipas, two rifle units were deployed to Nuevo Laredo, a crossing virtually owned by Los Zetas, and the other two elsewhere. What apparently was going on was a massive reinforcement for the state. SEDENA, the controlling agency for the Mexican Army added five thousand troops to the state, the equivalent of two rifle brigades. Last week an additional 8,000 troops were deployed temporarily to the state from other states in Mexico such as Chiapas state.
A total of 13,000 army troops have been moved into Tamaulipas since the summer of 2011.
January 2nd, Policia Federal announced the additional of an additional 1,500 effectives to the state.
The week before came in a Milenio news daily article about the first of the shootings that took place the last week of December. The violence between cartels apparently were because of the troop movement. Criminal gangs in northern Tamaulipas were moving their activities south in response to the buildup in the north. In this writer's opinion it was a startling revelation, given the absolute attacks on the press in Mexico against the the national government's policy of using the military to fight the cartels.
Where the new deployment leaves the cartels is anyone's guess at the moment. But it is a clear major challenge to criminal gangs in the state that not only must they deal with reach others rivals, they must deal with an unprecedented buildup of military power in the area.
Perhaps the most visible evidence of the buildup of forces in the area are the output of several newspapers in the region. Judging by articles posted on newspaper websites, which now include reports sourced through SEDENA about several raids, busts and armed encounters -- which is something that would be unheard up only a year before -- the virtual shuttering of local press has ended.
The willingness of local press to report on the drug war whereas before it was cowed by cartel governance is perhaps the biggest change in the last summer outside of the massive reinforcement in Tamaulipas.
In Tamaulipas, encounters between Mexican security forces and drug cartel bad guys will likely continue, and until cartel power in the region is finally broken. But even if that does not or cannot happen, Mexican can at least now revel in the Mexican spring, provided courtesy of the Mexican military.
The referenced article reports on a study which concludes that due to the nork's position and number of offensive weapons, Pugsley would have the initial advantage in an all out war.
My two cents is that it would depend; If the US acted preemptively by using its Air Force to deliver thousands of GBU-39s to seal the caves in the crescent above Soul that shelter the artillery and rocket launchers then this initial advantage would be nullified. Secondly, I wonder how fast China and Russia would be to resupply Pugsley's regime? Doing so would draw some pretty sharp lines.
Pugsley would have to calculate Obama's resolve. IMHO, letting the Norks hammer the RoK would not be a good reelection strategy.
Posted by: Mike Ramsey ||
01/05/2012 12:07 ||
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#1
I like the idea of SKor quietly installing a few naval 16" turrets within fake buildings in Seoul, and training their underground crews for a rapid rate of fire on Nork artillery TRPs.
Because the Nork artillery positions are known, some computer simulations could give these guns the ability to take out one or two positions at a time, and incapacitate another one or two for minutes to hours.
I saw a video of a 16" splash on the side of a wide hill with four surface artillery positions in Lebanon. The 16" round picked up the side of that mountain and shook it real hard, knocking out all four positions.
While it wouldn't take out four emplaced positions, it would so rattle the chimes of those working the remaining functional ones that they would not be able to fire their guns for a long time.
And coordinating this with the normal 155 Howitzers, MLRS rockets, and aircraft attack, firing those Nork guns would truly stink on ice.
#2
I realize that when one is in charge of defence one can't think that way, but still, what odds that a good deal of of North Korea's artillery is rusty or otherwise sub-optimal for actually shooting?
#6
Just carpet bomb the place with sandwiches, the whole country would come to a stop as people rushed to get theirs.
Posted by: Secret Asian Man ||
01/05/2012 17:04 Comments ||
Top||
#7
IIRC it took the Norks about 3 days to get to Seoul the first time, circa 1950. Today, that entire area is jammed with population and infrastructure, urban sprawl. That initial punch will have to fight through terrain that is not conducive to 'blitzkrieg'. Not to mention the amount of loss of command and control as the Norks pause to loot each location they do occupy. Given that the Americans have been the only contemporary power to practice and perfect [as it were] city fighting, someone maybe guilty of the old game of counting tubes and bodies and ignoring other aspects of the operational environment.
#8
Like hell, the first drive McDonalds across the border will hold up an entire North Korean armor column as it winds its way around the drive-through
#9
The DPRK's "edge" is the sociopolitical/cultural importance of Seoul to the ROK = identity of the SOKOR People, + counting on Beijing to deter or defeat any US-ROK/Allied mil crossing of the DMZ into North Korea during war.
As per WMF + other MILBLOGS, Pyongyang's + ROK's common prob now is to see iff China = 2012 CPC Plenum will begin treating or viewing the DPRK as a de facto CHINESE PROVINCE, albeit quietly or informally at first.
IOW, DEPENDING ON HOW THE 2012 CPC PLENUM DECIDES, NORTH KOREA'S TIME AS A "SOVEREIGN" KOREAN NATION-STATE MAY SLOWLY BUT SURELY BE COMING TO AN END - CHINA'S DOMINATION + CONTROL MAY BECOME PERMANENT + ABSOLUTE IN COMING YEARS, NO LONGER "PARTIAL" OR SUBJECTIVE???
The US + International Community must expect major changes like this iff Rising China fails to procure overseas PLA Milbases vee the "First Island Chain".
IIRC e.g. CHINESE PRESIDENT HU JINTAO [paraph] >
THIS WEEK > proclaimed that THE US-WEST ARE CONTINUING IN THEIR STRATEGIC EFFORTS TO ISOLATE + DESTABILIZE CHINA, e.g. espec as per efforts to push Western Culture-Influence upon Chinese Society.
[Dawn] CONFIRMING recent speculation, the Afghan and Pakistain Taliban have announced a joint focus on fighting the US/Isaf troops in Afghanistan. What this means in the Pak context is that the TTP will likely scale back its attacks inside the country, meaning a drop in violence. From the narrowest and most myopic point of view, this will be viewed as a good thing for Pakistain in the short term. But is the formation of the Shura-i-Murakbah, a five-member council representing the who's who of militancy, the Waliur Rehman, Hakeemullah Mehsud, Gul Bahadur, Mullah Nazir and Haqqani groups, in any way a welcome development for us?
First, the caveats. There is still some uncertainty about the extent to which the agreement between the Afghan Taliban and parts of the TTP can be enforced. The splintering of the TTP in Pakistain has led to many offshoots with agendas of their own.
Even with the 'big five' represented in the Shura-i-Murakbah it's not clear to what extent they will reorient towards Afghanistan to the exclusion of activities inside Pakistain. Having said that, the danger to Pakistain is a broader one. With sections of the Pak Taliban announcing their intention to focus on Afghanistan, have we slipped closer to being labelled as a 'sponsor of terrorism' in the international community? Since 9/11 and the start of the so-called war on terror, Pakistain has publicly and consistently maintained that it will not allow its soil to be used for terrorist acts abroad. To the extent that was happening, whether through the Haqqani group or the Taliban using Pakistain as a sanctuary, the groups in question downplayed their use of Pak territory. And the Pak state suggested it was unable to seal a lengthy and mostly non-existent border. What's changed now is primarily the international community's mood. Patience with Pakistain is running perilously low and the tolerance for misbehaviour may no longer be there.
Does it make sense for us to flirt with attracting further international opprobrium in order to achieve the most limited of gains in terms of a short hiatus in violence inside the country? And by allowing TTP elements to once again push for closer ties with the Afghan Taliban, what happens when the 'goal' in Afghanistan is achieved? Would they not then turn their sights back on Pakistain, stronger and more motivated than ever? We ought to remember two things: one, the TTP has wrought great damage on Pakistain and will seek to do so again; two, an Al Qaeda-TTP-Afghan Taliban combine would be devastating for the region.
This article starring:
Gul Bahadur
TTP
Hakeemullah Mehsud
TTP
Mullah Nazir
TTP
Waliur Rehman
TTP
Posted by: Fred ||
01/05/2012 00:00 ||
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#1
Taliban join hands
Hint to Obean: They are not joining hands to sing Kumbaya.
Posted by: Paul ||
01/05/2012 12:53 Comments ||
Top||
#3
Seems like Pakistain has agreed to not interfere as long as the Taliban don't cause problems in Pakistan. That agreekent will be good until the Taliban feel they can take over after consolidating Afghanistan.
[Dawn] PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif ... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf... made a statement that was both alarming and puzzling when he said on Monday that setting up military courts in Sindh would be an option if he came into power through the next general elections. For one, the idea goes against the spirit of the pro-democracy stance he has been taking over the last several years. Mr Sharif has been speaking out bluntly against an outsized role for the security establishment in the business of running the country. His endorsement of a system of justice dispensed by the military that operates outside the bounds of the law is blatantly inconsistent with this, especially given his past experience. The Supreme Court ruled against the military courts he had permitted in the province during his second tenure as prime minister in the 1990s. Coming on the heels of his petition in the SC regarding the 'memogate' controversy, this statement once again calls Mr Sharif's pro-democracy credentials into question.
Second, the roots of Sindh's law-and-order problem, especially in Bloody Karachi, are political and commercial. Setting up military courts is a cosmetic measure that would address the symptom rather than the cause, as has already been demonstrated by their failed use in the past as well as the military operations that have been carried out in Bloody Karachi. The summer of 2011 proved that these extreme measures may have created respite from violence in the short term but did not lay long-lasting foundations for peace in the city. And even if the problem is seen as primarily a law-and-order issue, the responsible way to go about it would be to improve existing investigation and judicial procedures, not replace them. It is true that conviction rates are unacceptably low, but that is an argument for reforming the anti-terrorism court system, not bypassing it. Resorting to a method that he has tried before also demonstrates an inability or unwillingness on Mr Sharif's part to come up with new solutions to the problems Pakistain faces at a time when fresh approaches are exactly what the country needs.
Posted by: Fred ||
01/05/2012 00:00 ||
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[Dawn] It was on this day last year, when a 26-year-old Mumtaz Qadri killed the very man he was meant to protect. Twenty seven bullets to silence Salman Taseer and to make sure that the debate on misuse of blasphemy laws is shunned for good. It was this day last year that I realised that this might be the end of it all, the end of hope, the end for tolerance, the end of any show of courage, bravery or rational debate on the blasphemy laws or anything for that matter.
Some of us had already witnessed the vengeance before, the 'either you are with us or against us' mentality. It was made to look like it was our word against God's. We had witnessed people jubilant over murder too and witnessed the transition of a murderer to a martyr. The reactions that followed the attack on Ahmadi's in Lahore were the first signs that humanity had stooped down and been reduced to convoluted assumptions of faith and piety.
In the past year, minority minister Shahbaz Bhatti was also bumped off outside his mother's residence, silenced so he may never speak out against the injustices suffered by minorities again. While holy mans, television anchors, columnists and even politicians sought to persuade us that Taseer had brought it upon himself, that anyone who dared to speak out against the blasphemy laws would suffer the same fate and that if they had the opportunity they would do the same.
Spectators that either choose to agree with the jubilant or nod their heads condemning the murder but justifying the reaction to 'such sensitive matters', all the same. Something had broken irreparably.
The few of us that were horrified and enraged erupted into the streets and protested. Knowing well that for every chant, every word, every argument we make there could be a Qadri waiting to gun us down, lynch us so we may never be able to question again. Not much has changed. But should that stop us?
Salmaan Taseer stood for tolerance and he was killed at the hands of extremism. Nothing justifies his murder, and anyone who does has blood on their hands. I do not expect things to change overnight; they will not go away anytime soon. But I choose not to give up hope, not to remain silent and to keep fighting back, even if it's our words against their bullets.
I, like many others, take my courage from the Taseer's. Shehrbano Taseer, who despite losing her Abba so suddenly and violently, stood defiant, courageous and composed. At a time when people should have showered her with words of comfort, she was battling with questions, the likes of which could pierce through the most strongest of souls: "How did you feel when your father's murderer was showered with flowers? People refused to read his funeral prayers? His murderer is being turned in to a hero of sorts."
She chose to reason, to educate the world that the hatred that killed her father hurts all of Pakistain.
As these walls keep closing in on us, like Shehrbano Taseer, we have no other choice but to resist. We live in an irreparably broken society, and I don't wish to deny the reality, but despite that we must continue to hope, because hope gives us what we otherwise would not have: a chance.
While the courageous amongst us are ridiculed, threatened and attacked we must continue to support and reason. Silence is not an option, it never was.
Posted by: Fred ||
01/05/2012 00:00 ||
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#1
... first signs that humanity had stooped down and been reduced to convoluted assumptions of faith and piety.
2 points:
1) This was the FIRST sign you saw???
2) This wasn't humanity here, it was the orcs, trolls and morlocks that populate Pakistain. Whenever I see this sort of crap I can't help but think that the MIB need to come in and put down this infestation of bugs.
Three years ago the Israeli army initiated a major military offensive against the people of the Gazoo Strip with the aim of stopping the shelling from Gazoo and the release of one of their soldiers that was held in the strip.
True. A good start.
Over 1,400 Paleostinians, many of them women and kiddies, were killed, thousands were maimed,
Most were actually members of various "armed wings" of terror groups, most of the rest human shields, a very few innocents in the wrong place at the wrong time. But do go on, O PalestinianJournalist.
and public, private and internationally owned properties were damaged as a result of the attack that came from land, sea and air.
War is destructive. If you want your buildings whole, hale and hearty, don't provoke one.
Both publicly stated goals failed in this criminal war against a defenseless population and lightly armed militants.
There's not a single truth in that sentence, though the writer taught at Princeton. Admittedly, they didn't keep him on long -- perhaps this kind of thing has something to do with it.
Shelling from Gazoo has continued intermittently since the war. It slowed down considerably as a result of a unilateral decision by Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason,,
Why do you suppose they decided such a thing, O Palestinian Journalist?
and could end immediately if Israel were to deal with the Islamic movement.
Israel did. That's why the pace of shelling has slowed.
As to the captured Israeli soldier, the Israelis were forced to do what Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, offered them from day one, to trade him for imprisoned Paleostinians.
Some have already been re-arrested, of those who were not sent into exile, and more will no doubt be in the near future. Some have actually learnt from the experience to cherish time with home and family.
Israel and to a lesser extent, Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason,, were accused by renowned UN appointed international jurists of having committed war crimes.
The UN's number one activity is accusing Israel of stuff, followed by the unexpected enrichment of employees and the rape of women and children by troops engaged in Blue Helmet assignments.
Following extreme pressure on him and his family the head of the UN commission South African judge Richard Goldstone, later wrote an opinion article changing some of the conclusions of the committee he headed. He never made any official change in the report that was submitted as an official document to the United Nations ...an idea whose time has gone... The Israeli-imposed siege on Gazoo has continued and has been publicly justified by major world countries even though this siege was and remains totally illegal.
For a given definition of illegal that means completely legal.
No international body has approved the restriction of movement of people and goods into or out of the Gazoo strip.
No international body was consulted. None has jurisdiction.
An international effort to break the siege has resulted in a de facto loosening of this siege.
Mostly due to tunnel digging and smuggling activity, enabling Gazans to have their choice of potato chips, donkeys, and elaborate shopping malls.
Unfortunately this effort has cost nine Turkish peace activists.
Israel's relations with an important NATO ...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It's headquartered in Belgium. That sez it all.... member has since collapsed due to Israel's refusal to apologize for killing Turks in international waters.
Turks engaged in an act of war at the behest of their government-- even the UN investigating committee ruled Israel was justified. You neglected to mention the follow-up event collapsed, O Palestinian Journalist.
While the slight easing of the siege (especially in regards to badly needed building materials) has resulted in the beginnings of a rebuilding campaign, much more is needed. The hundreds of millions of dollars pledged at the Sharm al Sheikh conference for the rebuilding of Gazoo have slowly trickled into the populated strip but have gone mostly to or through international organizations such as the United Nations ...an idea whose time has gone... Refugee Works
Golly -- those generous pledges were lies? Shocking!
Whether it has been the result of the Arab Spring (especially in as far as Hamas's almost deserted Damascus headquarters) or for other reasons, Hamas has slowly experienced discernible change since the breakout of the war. Ruling and governing can do a lot to soften any movement's ideologies.
The poor darlings -- how do they live with themselves?!
The fear of losing in future elections can do amazing things for softening the sharp edges of any movement.
Or perhaps the fear of provoking another Israeli operation...
In this respect, the Paleostinian reconciliation efforts have produced some unprecedented changes in the political discourse as well as in the daily actions of the Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, movement and government. Hamas chief Khalid Mashaal is now proclaiming his movements' change of resistance strategy.
The cut-thoat movement is now committed to prioritizing nonviolent resistance in all its activities.
Very strange, indeed
This position is translated on the ground in Gazoo by the movement refraining from launching missiles towards Israel and in arresting or otherwise preventing any individual or group from doing so. This is explained as necessary for the higher interest of Paleostinians in Gazoo.
Politically the Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, movement is slowly removing all the issues that caused it international isolation.
By agreeing to join the PLO Hamas is indirectly recognizing Israel, which the Paleostinian Liberation Organisation officially did on the eve of the 1993 Oslo Accords.
Internationally, the world community will not be able to justify continued isolation of Hamas even if Israel insists on such an isolation. After all, US and other western leaders have publicly stated their willingness to work with the Moslem Brüderbund and other Islamists who have won elections or power in Tunis, Libya and Egypt.
Gazoo at the end of 2011 is not the same as it was at the end of 2008, both negatively and positively.
The Arab Spring requires that the current siege and all its effects are once and for all removed so that Paleostinians in Gazoo can live normally with the ability to move in and out of the strip.
Try talking to the Egyptians, who much prefer you keep your thieving selves behind their security wall, however much they may emote about their persecuted brothers.
Also, Paleostinian goods and people from the West Bank should equally have the right to move unfettered to the strip without the illegal and immoral siege restricting them.
Why would they want to do that? Even they think Gazans are rabid madmen, and y'all aren't even cousins...and then there's that sewage pond that periodically overflows its banks, a metaphor for all sorts of things
Daoud Kuttab is a Palestinian journalist and former professor of journalism at Princeton University.
#1
After all, US and other western leaders have publicly stated their willingness to work with the Moslem Brüderbund and other Islamists who have won elections or power in Tunis, Libya and Egypt.
The difference is Hamas threatens Westerners and our interests. We shouldn't fell guilty about hating the enemy.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
The referenced article reports on a study which concludes that due to the nork's position and number of offensive weapons, Pugsley would have the initial advantage in an all out war.
[Dawn] CONFIRMING recent speculation, the Afghan and Pakistain Taliban have announced a joint focus on fighting the US/Isaf troops in Afghanistan. What this means in the Pak context is that the TTP will likely scale back its attacks inside the country, meaning a drop in violence. From the narrowest and most myopic point of view, this will be viewed as a good thing for Pakistain in the short term. But is the formation of the Shura-i-Murakbah, a five-member council representing the who's who of militancy, the 
Nawaz Sharif
[Dawn] It was on this day last year, when a 26-year-old Mumtaz Qadri killed the very man he was meant to protect. Twenty seven bullets to silence Salman Taseer and to make sure that the debate on misuse of blasphemy laws is shunned for good. It was this day last year that I realised that this might be the end of it all, the end of hope, the end for tolerance, the end of any show of courage, bravery or rational debate on the blasphemy laws or anything for that matter.
Three years ago the Israeli army initiated a major military offensive against the people of the 
