Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Artemy Sharapov
[REGNUM] “Israel has suffered very badly, especially in the last couple of days… from [Iranian] ballistic missiles,” US President Donald Trump admitted on June 25 during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on the sidelines of the alliance summit.
At the same time, as TASS reports, Trump praised Israel, which “performed magnificently” during the armed conflict, which the US president has already dubbed the “twelve-day war.”
Earlier, on June 24, Trump said that the governments of Iran and Israel had approved the US-proposed plan for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, agreeing to a ceasefire. If the "twelve-day war" really did end, it ended without a clear winner. Both sides managed to declare their military victory, achieved thanks to the courage of their armed forces and the use of the most modern military developments.
And although the conflict has not yet revealed a clear winner,
| ..an opinion, to be sure. Not realistic, but he did think it with his very own brain, so there’s that… |
it is already possible to draw some conclusions about who was better prepared for war and who inflicted greater damage on the enemy. Moreover, neither Iran nor Israel have fully exhausted their capabilities for escalating the conflict.
Outlining the goals of the operation against Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the targets of the attacks would be facilities related to its nuclear and missile programs. A number of Arabic-language media outlets believe that the Israeli army command planned to knock out the command staff of the Iranian Armed Forces with one blow, thus depriving the enemy of the opportunity to respond.
If this is indeed the case, then the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) headquarters made a strategic miscalculation. About 20 hours after the war began, Iran launched its first powerful strike on central Israel, including Tel Aviv.
The parties to the conflict differ in their estimates of the number of missiles fired at Israel, but approximately 400-500 launches are being discussed (21 waves of attack with 15-20 missiles in each). The number of missiles "missed" by the Israeli missile defense system is estimated at approximately 15-20% of the total.
| I thought it was 5%. Maybe it went up in the last day or two… |
The first wave of the attack used Shahab-3 ballistic missiles (translated from Farsi as "Meteor-3"), which have a range of up to 1,200-1,300 km. The missile itself was sent into serial production back in the mid-2000s and is not a new product.
In essence, at the first stage of the conflict, Iran sought to exhaust the stockpiles of Israeli missile defense missiles in order to then use more powerful missiles. And they partially succeeded. Later, a new modification of the Shahab-3 with a cluster warhead was used. Its warhead opens at an altitude of several kilometers above the target, throwing five to ten small submunitions that strike within a radius of 500-800 meters.
The use of such missiles has become a major challenge for Israel, since the David's Sling missile defense system is designed to destroy unitary warheads, while the Iron Dome system is not designed to destroy this type of munitions and specializes in destroying rockets.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO DESTROY THE TERRACOTTA WITH THE ARROW
Before the conflict, Israeli media were extremely skeptical about the Iranian missile program. It was assumed that most Iranian missiles were outdated, had extremely low accuracy, and would be easily destroyed by layered missile defense forces. However, Iran was able to demonstrate a number of new developments, the emergence of which significantly changes the balance of power in the Middle East. First of all, we are talking about the Sajil-2 (Terracotta-2) class ballistic missiles.
Unlike traditional liquid-fuel rockets, which require preliminary refueling, Sajil-2 runs on solid fuel, which allows it to be kept in a state of constant combat readiness. The first single launch took place on the fifth day of the conflict. Residents of a number of countries witnessed a strange phenomenon - a luminous "path" in the night sky. According to experts, this trace appeared as a result of atmospheric vapor compression, which occurred when the second stage engines were activated in the near-stratospheric space. The spiral trace that appeared in the sky indicated the successful separation of the stages.
Unlike the Shahabs, the Sajil-2 has a greater range of up to 2,500 km and carries a 500 kg warhead. Outside the Earth's atmosphere, the missile becomes inaccessible to most air defense/missile defense systems. At the same time, at the final stage, it develops hypersonic speed, which leaves the Israeli Hetz (Arrow) systems, which specialize in hitting ballistic targets, only 60-90 seconds to respond.
One of the missiles of this class hit the headquarters of the C4I unit (IDF General Staff Communications and Computer Systems Directorate) in the city of Be'er Sheva. Local residents filmed the moment of "arrival", in which the sound wave that appeared after the explosion is clearly visible.
ACES UP THE SLEEVE
A number of experts believe that in the final stage of the conflict, Iran began to use up to three or four missiles of different types in one salvo. The first was to "overload" the Israeli missile defense system, while the second carried out a pinpoint strike. Such tactics were tested when striking Israeli army bases on the Golan Heights.
The first wave of the attack involved the launch of short- and medium-range Zulfiqar and Dezful high-speed missiles, which attracted missile defense fire. The most advanced Heibar Sheqan missiles, which Iran first introduced in 2022, were then used against military targets.
The missile with a 550 kg warhead was specially designed to counter the layered missile defense system. The triconical shape of the Heybar Shekan body is designed to provide minimal resistance when leaving the Earth's atmosphere and when re-entering. When approaching the target, the missile develops a speed of 2-3 Mach (approximately 2500-3600 km/h), which makes it an extremely difficult target to intercept. Moreover, the warhead can maneuver, evading interceptor missiles.
In essence, Iran demonstrated in practice its tactics of multi-level ballistic attacks, which previously existed only in theory. Using missiles flying at different altitudes, with different speeds and trajectories in one attack, the Iranians were able to partially "suppress" Israel's missile defense counteraction and deliver quite sensitive strikes. However, not all of Iran's missile arsenal was used during the conflict.
Experts believe that, having achieved superiority over the enemy's missile defense, the Islamic Republic could use the Khorramshahr missiles. Unlike all previously used models, this weapon has a more powerful warhead of 1,800 kg and a range of up to 2,000 km. In the future, Iran could use them to destroy underground fortified facilities or Israeli Air Force airfields.
In other words, Iran is far from exhausting its ability to increase the intensity of its attacks.
PENETRATOR BOMB
It is noteworthy that Israel, even after declaring that it had “seized dominance” in the skies over Iran, was unable to prevent the missile strikes.
| Each day they destroyed more launchers, so fewer could be shot off at once. And each day they destroyed more missile caches, so Iran had fewer to shoot off. It was a race to the end. |
In preparation for a possible conflict, the Islamic Republic had placed warehouses with finished products and launchers in advance in underground shelters and bunkers in the mountainous regions of the country.
During the raids, Israel used F-16 and F-35 aircraft armed with American-made air-to-air munitions. First of all, we are talking about GBU-38 high-explosive air bombs, which are equipped with the JDAM guidance and control system. These munitions are highly accurate and effective in hitting individual buildings, military installations or infrastructure. But the mass of the warhead is 207 kg (446 lb), which is clearly not enough to hit objects located under tens of meters of rock.
Israel has also made active use of Elbit Hermes 900 tactical drones, equipped with small-sized guided aerial bombs "Miholit". These bombs are also well suited for pinpoint destruction of individual unarmored targets, and even for attacking missile launchers, but clearly not for strikes on bunkers.
The only weapons that could cause critical damage to Iranian military facilities are the American GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), used during Operation Midnight Hammer to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
The mass of one bomb is more than 13,600 kg with a warhead of 2,500 kg. The Penetrator's body is designed to withstand the resistance of concrete and granite at supersonic speed. The bomb is equipped with a penetrating warhead that penetrates the bunker ceiling by tens of meters, after which the "smart detonator" makes a decision to detonate.
However, the US Army only has a few dozen of these high-tech munitions at its disposal. Moreover, only the B-2 Spirit strategic bomber can drop them – one aircraft can lift about two bombs at a time.
So for now, the Iranian missile program and missile silos remain an elusive target for the Israeli army. And in that sense, ending the conflict before it escalated into a global war of attrition was a win-win for both sides.
Israel did not tempt fate by taking hits from increasingly powerful missiles that each time penetrated the Iron Dome air defense system, and Iran was able to keep its strategic military installations safe.
| Some of them, anyway. But it’s odd how many sites Israel seemed to know the location of… |
At least for now.
| The view from Israel on the subject. Long. |
Its missile stock is depleted, but Iran’s arsenal may still be a threat
[IsraelTimes] Experts say it will take years for Tehran to replenish its missile supplies, but it can still terrorize Israel and others with cluster warheads and short-range rockets.
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