Article

2007-12-06 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2007-12-06 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11127 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iran

#1 Formerspook has some good analysis on this issue.

Posted by 3dc 2007-12-06 00:21|| 2007-12-06 00:21|| Front Page Top

#2 ION, RIAN/RUSSIATODAY > AROUND THE WORLD IN 71 DAYS - RUSSIA'S FLEET SETS SAIL. Eleven warships, including Aircraft Carrier [47-planes], from Russ Northern, BLack Sea, and Baltic Fleets.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2007-12-06 00:37|| 2007-12-06 00:37|| Front Page Top

#3 So an intelligence agency, justifiably famous for being duped by foreign agents and moles, has made a drastic revision in its analysis based on a single individual. Why am I sceptical?

Posted by SteveS 2007-12-06 01:45|| 2007-12-06 01:45|| Front Page Top

#4 YNETNEWS Op-Ed > WHEN WILL IRAN HAVE THE BOMB? Author believes new US NIE is based on general subjective = superficial assessments, NOT absolute or in-depth knowledge - also denotes that Radical Iran had prev taken the world by surprise in certain things or events, and theres no reason for the World to believe Iran will not do it again.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2007-12-06 04:33|| 2007-12-06 04:33|| Front Page Top

#5 Based on the analysis at the link in #1, it seems we have a familiar pattern:Cherry-pick a document, ignore any mitigating facts, and throw the cherries - thus harvested - at Bush until another cherry tree is discovered, or Britany has another meltdown.

Lord, how I love the MSM!

Posted by Bobby 2007-12-06 06:36|| 2007-12-06 06:36|| Front Page Top

#6 "... U.S. intelligence-gathering in Iran had been difficult since its 1979 revolution."

Are you kidding? US intelligence MISSED the entire revolution, not to mention the end of the Cold War. After the OSS passed into history, US Intelligence has become an oxymoron.

Posted by doc 2007-12-06 08:13|| 2007-12-06 08:13|| Front Page Top

#7 doc,

Notice when the college kids with new paper started showing up in the old agencies like the CIA and the quality of the work went down? Same in MSM. In the 50s and early 60s, news was a trade with apprentice, journeymen, master status. Then the universities got into the act of 'certifying through paper' the skills of people. When teacher colleges of two year programs became four year university paper certificate programs and the quality of our school systems started down hill. You notice a common nexus in all these declines in 'quality' go back to our university system?

Posted by Procopius2k 2007-12-06 08:41|| 2007-12-06 08:41|| Front Page Top

#8 And our university system has gone down in quality too.

Posted by DarthVader">DarthVader 2007-12-06 09:36|| 2007-12-06 09:36|| Front Page Top

#9 Wouldn't it be ironic if the NEI information was gleemed from a particularly fruitful "waterboarding session" inspired by a cell phone intercept?

Posted by Capsu78 2007-12-06 10:57|| 2007-12-06 10:57|| Front Page Top

#10 Procopius and Lord Vader,
In the late 70's, there was a tremendous brouhaha over the establishment of minimum entrance requirements for admission to City University. Perusing these requirements, I concluded that these requirements seemed more requirements to enter High School. Apparently nothing has changed.

Posted by doc 2007-12-06 12:42|| 2007-12-06 12:42|| Front Page Top

#11 I was "in the business" for 21+ years. Such nonsense as the current NIE is a common product of the "analytical" side of the business. Those of us who actually PRODUCED intelligence information were considered "peons", and should be devoid of any "analytical" activities. I can't tell you how many Imagery Intelligence Reports I've seen ridiculed because the information didn't fit some upper-echelon analyst's preconceived notions. I'm sure several other spooks who frequent this site can tell similar tales.

The current NIE isn't worth the paper it's printed on.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2007-12-06 17:48|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2007-12-06 17:48|| Front Page Top

#12 OP I too did 20 years "Cleared for Wierd" and I don't know anyone who beklieved anything that came from the CIA or State. Thier "analysis" mever quite bore out with reality.

Posted by Cyber Sarge 2007-12-06 20:35|| 2007-12-06 20:35|| Front Page Top

23:37 gorb
23:33 OldSpook
23:26 www
23:23 www
23:05 flushing_kenny
22:54 3dc
22:48 3dc
22:30 Barbara Skolaut
22:26 3dc
22:18 Danielle
22:10 Barbara Skolaut
22:06 John Kerry
22:01 Pappy
21:56 Frank G
21:50 SteveS
21:46 Deacon Blues
21:40 Deacon Blues
21:28 Deacon Blues
21:24 Eric Jablow
21:19 Sock Puppet of Doom
21:18 Sock Puppet of Doom
21:12 Eric Jablow
21:08 Eric Jablow
21:02 Old Patriot