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2003-05-19 Afghanistan

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Posted by Fred Pruitt 2003-05-19 11:34 am|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Karzai needs money and control to rebuild, and the warlords are deniying him tax revenues. He doesnt have the force to put down the warlords - making Pashtun provinces into an "isle de france" hasnt worked, with insecurity in pashtun provinces, and with Gul Shirzai still controlling the south. And greater Kabul isnt working as an "isle de france" - too much customs revenue gets skimmed at the border. So its threaten to resign - leaving Fahim, Dostum, Shirzai, Khan, et al to face the prospects of civil war, or at best rule by one of their number over the others with US backing. They have to see Kharzai as preferable, but will they give up the revenues to keep him?

Posted by Anonymous 2003-05-19 12:13:31|| 2003-05-19 12:13:31|| Front Page Top

#2 I think the usual practice in the area is to promise to do so, then not follow through...

Posted by Fred 2003-05-19 12:14:56|| 2003-05-19 12:14:56|| Front Page Top

#3 Karzai wants to be a ruler, not a figurehead. I'm not sure that having Karzai in charge is necessarily in our interests. There's nothing wrong with the current situation, where the provincial governors are largely responsible for local affairs and our guys are responsible for security. The analogy is that of American federalism before the Federal government acquired its present bloat.

The governors know that they are not indespensable - if they get out of line (in terms of supporting the Taliban), we can knock 'em over, and have someone else take over. A unified Afghanistan under Karzai would be much more chancy. What happens if Karzai makes nice with the Taliban like he did in the first weeks of the war, before it became clear that the Taliban were goners? I simply don't trust Karzai - he has the air of a rug salesman about him.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2003-05-19 12:51:20|| 2003-05-19 12:51:20|| Front Page Top

#4 i think the current situation in Afghanistan is hardly 1820 US federalism - these guys have armies, and now and again fight each other Shirzai vs Khan, Dostum vs Fahim. Their areas, though better than under the taliban, are not secure enough for the reconstruction Afghanistan needs. And withou Kharzai as pres, theyre likely to fight for control of the center, as they did in '92.

I cant see Kharzai making nice with the Taliban - if they come back, hes a goner, he offers nothing they need. He is mainly of use to US, and to non-Taliban Pashtuns. So its in his interest for us to stay. As for his actions in during the war, my impression is he was working with the CIA from day one. He was reaching out to local taliban, to change sides, which was also the CIA strategy.

Posted by Anonymous 2003-05-19 14:23:39|| 2003-05-19 14:23:39|| Front Page Top

#5 warlords are deniying him tax revenues.

In earliest days of our nation, we had similar problems. The new government would try to govern and often simply be ignored by the states. In the end, we didn't do too bad.

Posted by Becky 2003-05-19 15:08:48|| 2003-05-19 15:08:48|| Front Page Top

15:48 Peter North
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