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2004-06-19 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Reporter grills State Dept about repetitive Iran resolutions
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Posted by Super Hose 2004-06-19 1:23:42 AM|| || Front Page|| [5 views since 2007-05-07]  Top

#1 QUESTION: Well, why wouldn’t they get the impression that patience is limitless because, like you said, this is the fourth resolution and you have been -- every resolution -- I mean the resolution in November was very tough and it said that, you know, any kind of further omissions by Iran or -- I don’t remember the exact language, but, you know, it threatened further Board action. And it doesn’t seem really that there had been any action taken since then, I mean.

It's about time for some d@mned answers.
Posted by Zenster 2004-06-19 2:05:33 AM||   2004-06-19 2:05:33 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Zenster, I find it shocking that a journalist is demanding that the UN is just engaged in an endless string of repetitive resolutions. That's what they always do. No reporters were calling for an end to the endless repetitions of resolutions before the Iraq War. They were all slanting their pieces to encourage people to think that the next resolution might be the one so we should just give inspections more time. This journalist is extrodinarily frank - must be a new person - maybe the others haven't explained the game yet.
Posted by Super Hose 2004-06-19 2:17:29 AM||   2004-06-19 2:17:29 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 Zen - You've whanged this bell about a hundred times. Let's get off the dime. You're the President of the US. You have the exact real-world resources and limitations as Dubya. Let's get to it, shall we?

Let's start with what you want. You've never even give the tiniest real-world specifics. Do you want a big sheet of glass, a tipped regime and Iranians running their country, invasion and occupation, a shitload of strikes on facilities leaving everything else (incl Mad Mullahs) intact, what?

Then comes how. Explain your plan. Address the issues, military and political, the steps that must be taken, the boxes you have to check, and the actions that would yield the result you want.

That's a lot of stuff, so keep it as pithy as you can. Knock yourself out. Just don't leave out the juicy shit - like force mix and armaments - that's always fun to read.
Posted by .com 2004-06-19 2:31:41 AM||   2004-06-19 2:31:41 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 Notice the liberals have not said a word on Iran since one of their heros, Jimmy Carter, pulled the rug from under the Shah in 1978, thus opening the door for Khomeini to take control of the 2nd largest producer of OPEC oil and kick off the modern international jihad movment.



Posted by Mark Espinola 2004-06-19 2:57:48 AM||   2004-06-19 2:57:48 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 More importantly has anyone outside of the NSA, NRO and DIA guys even attempted to nail down how many facilities we are talking about here? Its one thing to hit one target, totally another question to hit several dozens up to even a hundred targets.
Posted by Valentine 2004-06-19 3:43:38 AM||   2004-06-19 3:43:38 AM|| Front Page Top

#6 Valentine - I don't think anyone's absolutely sure, even Mossad, but I'll bet they know a lot and, of course, you don't have to hit every one of them, just a few of the bottleneck sites. Remember when the US / Brits got smart about bombing and went strategic? Taking out the primary source of ball bearings at Schweinfurt was a simple way of crippling target industries, such as fighter production. It may be that we / Israel only need to hit a few sites to shut down their production line cold...
Posted by .com 2004-06-19 4:01:35 AM||   2004-06-19 4:01:35 AM|| Front Page Top

#7 True enough .com, however the one problem I see with taking out target industries related to this project is that it seems virtually everything related to the product (cept for the uranium itself) is being shipped INTO the country. Anyhoo thats my take on it.
Posted by Valentine 2004-06-19 4:48:17 AM||   2004-06-19 4:48:17 AM|| Front Page Top

#8 Hmmmm. Okay, I thought that they just recently went on a shopping spree for all sorts of machinery and parts and that, for example, they were having to fabricate and build their own P2 Centrifuges - "all" they had were designs / plans...here:
"In March it was condemned by the IAEA for continuing to hide sensitive nuclear activities, including designs for sophisticated P2 centrifuges for making enriched uranium which could be weapons-grade."

I'm sure they are importing all finished products they can - their machine-tool and mfg are not, shall we say, world-renowned. But some components are not available as finished goods, as far as we know, and these new improved P2 centifuges are an example. The can use the older centrifuges - slows down the purification output rate significantly - recall the older ones that the IAEA inspected (after being tipped) which were discovered to have traces of purified weapons-grade uranium? Quite the stink! At first they claimed they made them - homebrew - then they admitted they bought them second-hand and the uranium was contamination from the original owner. Yadda3. They are dancing as fast as they can, heh.

Okay - mixed bag, so it's not as target-rich as it might be. I'll still wager we some level of hard intel about their program
Posted by .com 2004-06-19 5:13:06 AM||   2004-06-19 5:13:06 AM|| Front Page Top

#9 #3 Zen - You've whanged this bell about a hundred times. Let's get off the dime. You're the President of the US. You have the exact real-world resources and limitations as Dubya. Let's get to it, shall we?

Let's start with what you want. You've never even give the tiniest real-world specifics. Do you want a big sheet of glass, a tipped regime and Iranians running their country, invasion and occupation, a shitload of strikes on facilities leaving everything else (incl Mad Mullahs) intact, what?

Glad you asked, .com. America represents the source of and market for a substantial portion of the globe's sophisticated hardware and software. It's about time we make sure that the scale comes up level. If China is assisting Iran's nuclear efforts, they need to be punished, even if our own economy has to take a brief but necessary hit. Allowing the massive trade imbalance with China to continue is tantamount to financing their military and nuclear proliferation efforts. It is China that turns around with our hard earned money and buys Iranian oil. China is also assisting the Iranians with their nuclear arms development. So, why are we financing our own doom?

I don't care if it is Clinton democrats receiving megabucks from China or, despite outright conflicts of public interest, republican Pioneers getting favorable legislation (to the tune of BILLIONS in profits) passed after donating six figures to their presidential candidate's campaign, ALL OF IT NEEDS TO STOP.

Tell me that republican fundraisers DO NOT benefit from our current disastrous trade relations with communist China as well. WalMart donates heavily to the republicans and single-handedly represents TEN PERCENT of our trade deficit with China. That's 12 BILLION DOLLARS out of 127 BILLION flowing into the gaping black economic hole of communist China. A quick glance at the list below shows many importers of Chinese goods who donate heavily to republican causes. This list totals some $2.4 million dollars of which 89% went into republican coffers.

WalMart, $467K, 97% to republicans;
K-Mart, $524K, 86% to republicans;
Home Depot, $298K, 89% to republicans;
Target, $226K, 70% to republicans;
Circuit City Stores, $261K, 95% to republicans;
3M Co., $281K, 87% to republicans;
Amway, $391K, 100% republican;

Tell me that there wouldn't be resistance to economic sanctions against China voiced by these deep pockets, even if it was contrary to the public's best interest. The current republican administration sent $43,000,000 to the Taleban immediately prior to 9-11. So please do not try and tell me that soft-headed foreign aid is the exclusive domain of democrats.

We need to deal with not only Iran but those who finance and facilitate their drive towards nuclear armament.

#3 Then comes how. Explain your plan. Address the issues, military and political, the steps that must be taken, the boxes you have to check, and the actions that would yield the result you want.

That's a lot of stuff, so keep it as pithy as you can. Knock yourself out. Just don't leave out the juicy shit - like force mix and armaments - that's always fun to read.

What I would like to see is for politicians to drop the "diplo-speak" and begin talking in plain terms. Waffling weasle-worded garbage like "unhelpful" and such must be dispensed with and straightforward discussions of Iran's pattern of wrongdoing should be brought to the fore. Sir Winston Churchill had the stones to call Nazis "thugs and guttersnipes," and we must do the same regarding militant Islamists. All appeasement and coddling of those engaged in terror has got to end. We are sending aid to the Palestinians no less and such insanity has to stop. America and its allies need to begin identifying Iran as a central source of Middle East terror and draw direct and damning links to the real life mayhem that they cause this world.

Simple economic models must be built to show how military campaigns against terrorism require costly diversion of funds from other more beneficial projects like famine relief and combating epidemics. Unambiguous projections must be made showing that this results in needless loss of life among third world nations. The true cost of terrorism must be vividly outlined in terms of how it distracts major powers from properly assisting other countries in the process of modernization.

America needs to make clear to the world that it perceives Iran as being determined to furnish terrorists with nuclear weapons at their first opportunity. We must openly declare how we consider ourselves the prime target for such an atrocity and therefore are obliged to begin interdiction of any such efforts. Simple condemnation must be shown as having been ineffectual and a crystal clear map of Iranian progress towards nuclear arms must be drawn up and publicized.

Some simulations need to be run and perhaps a few video clips made of what major European cities would look like after an Iranian nuclear strike. Casualty counts and damage to economic infrastructure must accompany these productions. This information should be broadcast into Europe so that its people start to get a grip on just what sort of threat a nuclear armed Iran represents to them.

Additionally, a factual catalog of terrorist actions that can be traced back to Iran must be published so that Europe's people will have names and faces pinned to the enormous death toll caused by Tehran's terror complex. This should also include widespread publicity regarding human rights violations and their institutionalized abuse of women. Purchasers of Iranian oil need to be confronted with how they are supporting terrorism and efforts made to steer them clear of buying from Tehran. Allies should be rewarded with incentives and opponents given notice of potential sanctions that would result from continued trade.

Iran itself should be put on notice that they have 30 days to comply with "jump" spot inspections of all nuclear facilities. Satellite and aerial photo reconnaissance must be maintained over that time period to monitor any activity at those sites indicating movement of equipment or materiel. Should such movements occur, air strikes or other measures should be called in immediately to discourage such subterfuge.

Penalties for Iranian noncompliance should include interdiction of all oil exports through the Straits of Hormuz so as to initiate a process of economically starving out Tehran. At the first sign of any military resistance, the Kharg Island terminal should be crippled and further hostilities would result in it being destroyed.

A maritime blockade will be needed to prevent Iran from sinking any vessels in the channel to block traffic. Iranian shore batteries may need to be neutralized to suppress any threat to regular international tanker traffic. Overflights to monitor and interdict mine laying operations will also be required. If necessary, simple retaliatory measures for hostile acts may be called for. Air strikes against Iranian oil fields, refineries or natural gas well heads are examples. We already have a carrier group in the region and that will probably need to be augmented with more maneuverable, smaller beam craft for quick response operations within the Persian Gulf itself.

Increased support in Iraq by Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Britain, Poland, Italy and other allies may be needed to offset the displacement of American assets required by Iranian operations. Iraq's oil production must be diverted to provide make up for deleted Iranian flow to our allies. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers should be put on notice that additional capacity must be brought online and that future foreign aid and military support depends upon them doing so without delay.

Any Iranian troop buildups or mobilizations adjacent to the Straits of Hormuz, Kharg Island or other key staging points useful in launching retaliatory acts will need to be neutralized. Prior notice should be given to Iran that such actions will be met with force. Wherever possible, deployments of ground troops need to be avoided in favor of air sorties and use of off shore assets. A "standoff" posture would be useful so that, should Iran retaliate, it will require obvious extra-national moves that can easily be identified as such.

Serious consideration must be given to covert support for internal factions in Iran seeking to oust the mullahs. If such a route is not sufficiently fruitful, then a decapitating strike against the Guardian Council must be considered as well. It serves no interests save that of the mullahs themselves for them to remain in power another week.

There you go, .com. I don't have 12 hours to waste detailing out individual troop strengths and the like, but I think this gives a pretty clear outline of what I consider to be needed.

How about you? What are your own recommendations? I've provided mine, what about yours? And please do better than resorting to "what they're doing already." You possess the intelligence and ability to clarify better than that and I further believe that, like myself, you are also less than happy about the current course of events.
Posted by Zenster 2004-06-19 11:57:38 AM||   2004-06-19 11:57:38 AM|| Front Page Top

#10 I sincerely hoped to enlist your assistance, since you are fervently angry about Iran, in fashioning a practical plan of action. I thought I posed the questions correctly to get useful responses, but apparently not.

Your response to "what", in almost no respect, even relates to the question, IMO. I will assume the fault is mine.

Perhaps they were, to you, mu questions:
mu - "a Japanese word alleged to mean 'Your question cannot be answered because it depends on incorrect assumptions'."

Or, more directly, a mu question is one that should be un-asked.

I'm sure you had a good time - especially with the political screeching. I guess my request was ex-lax because it smells like pure shit to me.

Sigh. Well, at least you got to vent. Good for you. Sorry to have bothered you. Won't happen again.
Posted by .com 2004-06-19 5:49:34 PM||   2004-06-19 5:49:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Still unable to come up with anything more than negative criticism though? Duly noted.
Posted by Zenster 2004-06-19 6:29:16 PM||   2004-06-19 6:29:16 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 Sigh. My intentions were sincere.

You can post anything you like, regardless of the questions I pose. You did, in fact, do precisely that. You raved and ignored the questions. Fine, that's your choice. In my response I was as polite as my disappointment, which is very real - this is the second time I've tried to find positive constructive common ground, allowed.

The first time you just chose not to respond further - okay. This time you're petty and snippy - saying I am negative. Right. Duly noted. As I said, it won't happen again.
Posted by .com 2004-06-19 6:54:21 PM||   2004-06-19 6:54:21 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 this is on topic: Praise be the United Tyrannies: they invented, and perfected the pinultimatum; "Now listen to me, cos' this is your next to the last warning!" .

Speaking of Zen, zippster, perhaps you should ponder this question "What is the sound of one mind flapping?" -(your own)
-Robert Fripp, true zen master.
Posted by Comment Top  2004-06-19 10:23:57 PM||   2004-06-19 10:23:57 PM|| Front Page Top

#14  Sigh. My intentions were sincere.

Forgive me if I beg to differ, but it doesn't quite show. There was a conspicuous lack of constructive criticism or forensic engagement in your followup posts. You also neglected to mention your own vision per solutions to this very important problem, which is something I specifically requested.

In that respect you came across as less than sincere. I do not mind answering your own requests for clarification, but to be met with abuse when I have posted factual material along with my own considered opinion on a best faith basis is flat-out rude.

Quite obviously we may have different opinions regarding what constitutes constructive criticism. Your air of painful resignation merely conveys a condescending and needlessly arrogant tone that ill becomes whatever putatively superior knowledge you allege to have.
Posted by Zenster 2004-06-20 12:31:02 AM||   2004-06-20 12:31:02 AM|| Front Page Top

#15 #13 this is on topic: Praise be the United Tyrannies: they invented, and perfected the pinultimatum; "Now listen to me, cos' this is your next to the last warning!" . Speaking of Zen, zippster, perhaps you should ponder this question "What is the sound of one mind flapping?" -(your own) -Robert Fripp, true zen master.

Is that you, dear?
Posted by Zenster 2004-06-20 3:07:16 AM||   2004-06-20 3:07:16 AM|| Front Page Top

#16 Zenster - I think I was polite and consider your last to be baiting. Do you really want me to answer this - or would you rather just let it go? I'll answer - if you insist.
Posted by .com 2004-06-20 4:41:54 AM|| [http://www.amble.com/images/patriotic_duty.jpg]  2004-06-20 4:41:54 AM|| Front Page Top

#17 .com, I am not trying to "bait" you. That's not how I work, and I consider such puerile tactics to be discourteous at best. What I would like to see are your own detailed thoughts on how to resolve the Iranian crisis. This represents my third request that you do so.
Posted by Zenster 2004-06-20 2:04:10 PM||   2004-06-20 2:04:10 PM|| Front Page Top

#18 Ah, okay, here's my take - and sort of what I thought I would get from you. Compare and contrast. I consider this a rational analysis of the situation and initial plan outline. I do not consider your post to be of use. That is why I was disappointed.

--------------------------------------------------
Note: I want to address one of the things you posted: blockading Iranian petro exports. How do I say this? Let's have a look at the facts:
1) Iran is the #4 oil exporter (2.43MBD), as of 2003, per DOE
(http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/topworldtables1_2.html)

2) Iran's exported oil represents approx 8% of the World's Oil Imports, per CIA World Factbook
(http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/fields/2175.html)

What effect would this have on the world financial markets? In the slow-motion of this very public act, I think it would send the traders into meltdown - as they always exaggerate the impact, initially. 8% is a very significant amount.
--------------------------------------------------

First, acts of war do not happen in a vacuum. There's serious irony in the fact that your BushHitler brethren, those who think like you regards domestic politics, have made the election year environment so bitterly partisan that Bush can't actually do any of the wild-eyed demands you make of him -- and you know it -- until after the election. If Skeery wins, you will be shit out of luck for a long long time unless, of course, you don't mean anything you say on RB except the screechy bits.

Second, as I see it, there are two options:
1) Short-term action to stop / slow nuclear development
2) Long-term solution - regime change

Short-term is a simple strike using air assets against Iranian nuclear facilities. If available intel is good enough to identify strategic targets, such as the centrifuge / enrichment is going on only in these two sites, then we can stop their assembly line with just a few TLAMS or cruise missiles. If our intel isn't that good and we don't know a strategic chokepoint, then it gets dicey - our only option will be to try to take out (severely damage) every known site and hope that we've achieved the above.

Long-term is where the real fun is, of course. And there are, again, two options:
1) Invasion, ala Iraq
2) Tipping Mullahs; Collaborate with Iranians who seek overthrow

Invasion. I guess it's pretty obvious that this is out of the question, no? Draw-down of US forces over the last decade or so (post-Reagan... wonder who that was?) and the spending of the "Peace Dividend" in recurring programs has left us an estimated 3 Divisions short, as it is. But that's actually just spitting in the wind. We don't have enough for an invasion. Even if everyone was available, it would be tough because Iran is a bigger problem in terms of size, many would say. All that's certain is that invasion is a non-starter.

Tipping the mullahs is the one that can work, IMHO. The collaboration of the Iranian populace is very likely. I know we disagree, or at least I assume we do from what you have posted about intel sources and objections to mine in another thread. I believe the populace is both ready for an overthrow and willing to accept our help -- in a non-invasion mode. We can debate the willingness - I will say I believe it's there, based upon my information primarily via personal sources and the fact that they tried to elect a secular government, were thwarted by Khomeini, Rafsanjani, and the Thugs, and fought them in the streets -- suffering badly for their efforts. The violence against those with the stones to meet the Basij and Rev Guards turned even more people against the Mullahs.

I believe that for this to work it has to be planned, staged, and executed in secrecy to avoid giving the Iranians time to prepare, react, or destroy facilities. The convenient current location of heavy US forces in Iraq certainly helps dramatically in this regard and can mask most / all of the (otherwise) visible preparations.

I believe that the intelligence agencies must do substantial preparation for this to work. Obviously, they must build contacts and structure within the dissenters, not a resistance force - which would warn the Mullahs and if possible, cache arms and equipment. Just-in-time delivery might work in some case / places - but I doubt it. Of course, with caching, there are serious security concerns. I am definitely not an expert in this area, but we have people who are.

I believe the Iranians to be open-minded, progressive, modern, and very literate. 70% of the population is under 30 (no link, sorry) and the median age is 23.5 (CIA World Factbook - http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ir.html#People). I have seen much to support my view and little that I find dissuasive. I believe we would have public support for this form of military assistance.

If this is correct, then a decapitation strike against the Mullahs, Rev Guard, Governing Council, and all known Basij concentrations coupled with arming the resistance and US Special Forces. Decap "strike" itself would be via the air assets that our planning experts deemed most appropriate, certainly to include TLAMS, cruise missiles, naval bombardment, and (at least) some stealth and Wild Weasel aircraft. I am assuming sufficient weapon stocks and available SF personnel - which may not be valid.

If well coordinated, targeted, and executed in a compact timeframe, the aerial strikes would kill and injure many and leave the remainder uncertain - since there would be zero C&C if we did it right. The Special Forces would have 2 primary purposes, as I see it:
1) Take and control / defend key oil infrastructure and facilities
2) Attack and hold major bases and security force centers where civilians vs. heavy fixed Govt opposition would be a slaughter

That's what I have in mind. I would welcome military people to critique and modify -- or reject out of hand. I would suggest that we will have to do something more than the Short-term, sooner or later. If this first-pass plan is unworkable, please present something that is.

It's easy to pick at a straw man. It's not so easy to construct one that hits all the high points. I have probably missed several - and that is why I wanted to work out a solution with someone - this is what I see. What am I missing? What have I screwed up? Etc.
Posted by .com 2004-06-20 4:56:40 PM|| [http://www.amble.com/images/patriotic_duty.jpg]  2004-06-20 4:56:40 PM|| Front Page Top

#19 Thank you for responding, .com. I see we are in agreement about a decap strike against the mullahs and bombing out their nuclear facilities.

I have serious concerns about delivering arms into the hands of Iranian resistance but will concede that it may be the only way to effect regime change short of a major invasion.

Your estimates about Iranian median age are probably correct since much of the older male population was wiped out in the Iran-Iraq war.

I do not see where your own assessment avoids the investor tailspin-mentality effect although their typically lunatic over-reaction is certainly not your fault. No matter what happens in Iran, the oil market will hyperventilate as it usually does.

Finally, your sneering attempts to disparage my own (presumed) political alignment comes across as being pretty infantile. While that is your privilege, it doesn't cut any ice with me.

What you label as "shrieking" represents a serious concern that American public interests and national security are being sold down the river in a cash-laden Chinese junk. Inaction regarding China's proliferation to Iran while continuing to pour America's billions into the politburo's coffers is flat-out insane. For the first time ever, an American administration has bought into the "One China" doctrine and I question both the intelligence and motivations for such a dubious move.
Posted by Zenster 2004-06-20 8:07:36 PM||   2004-06-20 8:07:36 PM|| Front Page Top

#20 Lol! Agreement. Right. You do not see... Right. Sneering... Right. Infantile... Right. Privilege... Right... Yawn. You can, rather obviously, convince yourself of anything, and do.

Your carefully crafted crap is still just crap. And the political screeching? (Yeah - sorry - that's what it is.) Well, it's insane and self-defeating, but when one has accepted the insane, I guess the merely contradictory is the least of one's troubles...
Posted by .com 2004-06-20 9:39:07 PM|| [http://www.amble.com/images/Bunniesx.jpg]  2004-06-20 9:39:07 PM|| Front Page Top

#21 And the presumptious, condescending, pedantic attitude shown towards someone who is willing to earnestly address what represents vital current affairs speaks volumes about the quality of intelligence and attitude that you display.

I would think that a declared atheist like yourself might be a bit more concerned about the political leadership of a family whose patriarch has declared how he doesn't "know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered patriots."

With all due respect, I happen to view you as a pretty decent patriot. It is ironic in the extreme that others you might admire far more than myself do not at all.
Posted by Zenster 2004-06-20 11:12:34 PM||   2004-06-20 11:12:34 PM|| Front Page Top

17:35 Shipman
17:34 Shipman
17:33 Shipman
17:26 igm
11:32 BigEd
11:28 voice of islam
18:57 Yank
11:34 rich woods
23:12 Zenster
22:07 Zenster
21:39 .com
20:07 Zenster
18:51 Mark Espinola
16:56 .com
14:04 Zenster
11:43 Anonymous5297
07:29 Anonymous5295
04:41 .com
03:07 Zenster
00:31 Zenster
23:54 .com
23:52 Barbara Skolaut
23:51 Barbara Skolaut
23:48 .com









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