Article

2005-05-05 International-UN-NGOs

Flu Pandemic threatens stability; need Manhattan Project-type vaccine effort

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Posted by phil_b 2005-05-05 1:07:51 AM|| || Front Page|| [4 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 This article belies a basic ignorance of the properties of the virus, how it mutates, and how it is propagated. First of all, vaccine only works on a given strain, one slight change and your vaccine is useless. Second, vaccine cannot be produced instantly, it has to *grow* at a given pace. Third, it can only be distributed and delivered at a given pace: getting the needle into the person is very hard and time consuming. Fourth, the vaccine is only at best effective for 2-3 months, less for people with weak immune systems, so secondary 'waves' of a flu that lasts six to nine months get many people previously innoculated. Fifth, the influenza varies unpredictably in its target population; it might hit healthy young men more than infants or the elderly.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-05-05 10:49|| 2005-05-05 10:49|| Front Page Top

#2 The Moose is right. I think the chances of producing enough vaccine quickly enough to have any material effect outside the developed countries is close to zero. Antiviral agents like Tamiflu are a much better option since they are effective with all strains.

Posted by phil_b 2005-05-05 11:01|| 2005-05-05 11:01|| Front Page Top

#3 To be absolutely heartless about this, the countries that will be ravaged by the semi-pandemic will be those least involved in the world economy, just as those currently ravaged by AIDs, etc are. It quite breaks my heart to even acknowlege this fact, and I hope that the pandemic predictions will continue to be as accurate as they have been since the 1970s, but I see no way around it. The G-8 countries simply cannot produce and store world-population amounts of vaccines for each candidate strain of influenza, not to mention all the other pathogens with potential for epidemic. Nor, in a pandemic situation, should we even send in medical teams to immunize such unprotected populations until the team members and all their contacts (including flight crews and airport staff at both ends of the flights) have been rendered safe, lest a team bring the pathogen home with them.

Sadly, the price paid by non-functioning societies will continue to be poverty, disease, and unnecessary death, avoided by the rulers for now, but unavoidable for even them should a pandemic occur.

Posted by trailing wife 2005-05-05 11:03|| 2005-05-05 11:03|| Front Page Top

#4 OTOH polio vaccinations - including updates - are starting to look like a very important priority.

I have a friend who had it as a kid. She has been unable to do more than walk slowly with a cane ever since. Nasty stuff.

Posted by too true 2005-05-05 11:04|| 2005-05-05 11:04|| Front Page Top

#5 Long technical post on the topic.

Posted by phil_b 2005-05-05 11:19|| 2005-05-05 11:19|| Front Page Top

#6 TW, I don't know where you got the notion of a semi-pandemic from, but I can assure you that once a virulent flu outbreak exceeds our capacity to control it then it will be a full blown pandemic. The only exceptions will be places that can exclude it at their borders. I am not confident that anywhere can do this but a few places have a chance, notably Australia.

Posted by phil_b 2005-05-05 11:27|| 2005-05-05 11:27|| Front Page Top

#7 too true:
Two of my siblings, now in their 50s, both got polio in 1953. My sister got a very mild case and only had some damage to her diapragm, resulting in a paunchy look. My brother, however, nearly died. When it had run its course he was left with one thoroughly useless arm and other muscle damage in his upper body. Since reaching his fifties, he has shown some of the latent symptoms associated with childhood polio (extreme fatigue, weakness), and had to have a heart valve replaced.

And he is one of the lucky ones. Truly a horrible disease. I just don't get these anti-vaccine nutballs.

Posted by Xbalanke 2005-05-05 11:30|| 2005-05-05 11:30|| Front Page Top

#8 teh responsibility of government-supported research is to advance national interests first, all other considerations should be secondary. Our history of caring for the rest of the world entitles us to say STFU until we've taken care of our own. We have always done our best to carry the world's ills on our back, and I'm sure as well here, but....

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-05-05 11:30|| 2005-05-05 11:30|| Front Page Top

#9 These requirements are over and above the 7%, you know. It's all there in my plan, somewhere. We will let you know if when we require more.

Regards the 7% thingy, cough it up, heh.

Posted by .Koffee 2005-05-05 11:46|| 2005-05-05 11:46|| Front Page Top

#10 Sadly, the price paid by non-functioning societies will continue to be poverty, disease, and unnecessary death, avoided by the rulers for now, but unavoidable for even them should a pandemic occur.

Wonderfully stated trailingwife. Well put.

Posted by Yosemite Sam 2005-05-05 12:51|| 2005-05-05 12:51|| Front Page Top

#11 Xbalanke, my sympathies. I take care of a couple of folks with post-polio syndrome, and it's very difficult on them.

Posted by Steve White">Steve White 2005-05-05 13:42|| 2005-05-05 13:42|| Front Page Top

23:46 trailing wife
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