Article

2005-09-11 China-Japan-Koreas

Water crisis looms for China as Himalayan glaciers melt

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Posted by too true 2005-09-11 19:25|| || Front Page|| [7 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 This article is idiotic. Melting glaciers will increase river flow, and it rains in the himalayas in the summer monsoon, and the complete absence of glaciers will increase summer river flows and floods.

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-11 19:47|| 2005-09-11 19:47|| Front Page Top

#2 Not so idiotic, just not well written.

The glaciers are retreating due to changes in rainfall patterns, not just due to melting. It's the lessened rainfall that is the big issue for them.

Posted by Omerens Omaigum2983 2005-09-11 19:59|| 2005-09-11 19:59|| Front Page Top

#3 This article is the worst kind of alarmist agenda-peddling claptrap written by people who are almost completely ignorant on the subject. River flows may be decreasing, but melting glaciers are not the cause, nor is global warming causing decreased rainfall, as all models say it will cause a more intense monsoon, i.e. higher rainfall across the himalayas and India (and anyone with an elementary knowledge of what causes the monsoon could tell you this).

Posted by phil_b 2005-09-11 20:34|| 2005-09-11 20:34|| Front Page Top

#4 experts are alarmed.

That's all I need to hear. What experts? Who? Curricula? Standing in world bodies? Critical review? No. Then fuck off

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-09-11 21:26|| 2005-09-11 21:26|| Front Page Top

#5 Back in the early 90s I had the opportunity to talk with a very senior Turkish official. It was about the time that the end of the cold war was evident and we discussed, among other things, a shift in focus from the eastern Turkish airbases ringing the USSR to whatever the future might bring.

His comment: Turkey will rule the middle east because we can control the water flowing out of the mountains. Iran, Iraq, Syria ... all depend on it.

Turkey did, in fact, threaten to cut off water to any independent Kurdistan and has IIRC hinted at this WRT the Kurdish control of oilfields and repatriation to take back homes Saddam gave to arabs and turkmen.

Whatever the science, it certainly is true that a shift in water availability will present the Chinese with a severe challenge - and perhaps an excuse for aggression.

Posted by rkb 2005-09-11 21:54|| 2005-09-11 21:54|| Front Page Top

#6 That said, lots can happen in 50 years.

Posted by rkb 2005-09-11 21:55|| 2005-09-11 21:55|| Front Page Top

#7 especially *ahem*JDAM* methods of stopping that control? Hard to build a dam under aerial bombing?

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2005-09-11 22:12|| 2005-09-11 22:12|| Front Page Top

#8 You can often get what you want by investing something else that you have. China is now building several more dams, not as grandiose as the Three Gorges, but still impressive. If that is not enough, and it won't be, their next effort will be insanely long canals over flat lands and pipelines over mountains.

A good example of both how this could work and how this could fail is the Central Arizona Project. A federal pipeline that delivers huge amounts of too-expensive water to Arizona. The water is then subsidized for agriculture, making it cheaper than local water. But this then saves local water for more development beyond the means of local water replenishment.

This means that for the time being, reality is defied through a huge subsidy from Washington. But when the money runs out, Arizona will pay handsomely for water it must have and cannot refuse, as the feds require Arizona to pay for it.

I can envision a similar situation developing in the heart of China, except even more short-sighted and even more expensive and ultimately fruitless.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-09-11 22:28|| 2005-09-11 22:28|| Front Page Top

#9 China has a *lot* of coastline. Nuclear-powered reverse osmosis plants should do the trick for potable water.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2005-09-11 23:04|| http://timurileng.blogspot.com]">[http://timurileng.blogspot.com] 2005-09-11 23:04|| Front Page Top

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