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2005-11-25 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by Fred 2005-11-25 00:00|| || Front Page|| [9 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Assad may be weak, but if he falls, who takes over? Other Alewite/military types? Or does the country fall into a civil war? If a civil war, it would seem like an Iranian-supported faction of Islamists would have the edge. And maybe that Islamist element would attack Israel amidst the chaos of the civil war, using it as a means of uniting other elements behind it and also of justifying military 'support' from Iran.

Posted by Glenmore">Glenmore 2005-11-25 07:25|| 2005-11-25 07:25|| Front Page Top

#2 Remember that Assad's power, like Saddam's, is based in violence. In a people traumatized by decades of dictatorship, for a while you can get away with fewer secret police and crackdowns-being short handed with thugs. It takes a while for the people both to recognize weakness, and even longer for them to organize to do something about it.

Posted by Anonymoose 2005-11-25 07:47|| 2005-11-25 07:47|| Front Page Top

#3 It would seem, on the face of it, that Iran would have a difficult time establishing itself in Syria other than providing the kindling for the uprising. With the dominance of Sunni...and Kurds...it would seem pretty difficult for the Shiites to actually get a foothold.

Posted by anymouse">anymouse 2005-11-25 07:48|| 2005-11-25 07:48|| Front Page Top

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