Article

2005-12-23 Science & Technology

Tamiflu still best hope against bird flu, says WHO

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Posted by Steve White 2005-12-23 00:14|| || Front Page|| [3 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 I have several problems with this article.

Firstly, the studies with 'normal' flu I have seen show Tamiflu be significantly less effective than people assume. In summary its highly effective, if taken before infection, Its moderately effective if taken around the time of infection and of limited effectiveness if taken after full symptom onset - when you are sick enough to go to a hospital. With H5N1 in mice it has only been show to be effective if administered prior to infection.

Secondly, the article presents no evidence that these 'resistance' mutations decrease the effectiveness of Tamiflu or by how much. The article assumes that Tamiflu's limited effectiveness results from the increasing prevalence of these mutations.

Further, the increasing incidence of certain mutations as a result of Tamiflu use doesn't necessarily mean these mutations confer complete or substantial resistance to Tamiflu. The mutations could result in only a slight decrease in effectiveness of the drug (as measured by the ability of the virus to replicate and perhaps no measurable cilinical difference). And I'd argue this is the likeliest scenario.

Finally, some people would argue that severe fatal flu such as found with H5N1 and in the 1918 pandemic results from a different mechanism (ARDS, Cytokine Storms) to the illness caused by 'normal' flu. The effectiveness of Tamiflu against this disease mechanism is unknown.

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2005-12-23 01:22|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2005-12-23 01:22|| Front Page Top

#2 Roche mulls increasing Tamiflu dose to treat bird flu

Posted by phil_b">phil_b 2005-12-23 03:17|| http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/]">[http://autonomousoperation.blogspot.com/] 2005-12-23 03:17|| Front Page Top

#3 Ah, yes, the ever-present "More research was needed..." Just don't give the funds to WHO if you want useful results.

Posted by Darrell 2005-12-23 08:59|| 2005-12-23 08:59|| Front Page Top

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