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2007-05-02 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

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Posted by mrp 2007-05-02 09:13|| || Front Page|| [11133 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Withdraw the diplomats. Cite the "instability" as the reason. Then harass every Russian "businessman" passing through Sweden.

Of course, that would take balls.

Posted by Rob Crawford">Rob Crawford 2007-05-02 09:42|| http://www.kloognome.com/]">[http://www.kloognome.com/] 2007-05-02 09:42|| Front Page Top

#2 Forget the Swedish ambassador - the Estonians ambassador got it worse. She got her car vandalized, and actually got blowback with Putin's Nashi youth stormed the press conference she was having at a local Moscow newspaper, and the protestors were dispersed with tear gas.
The embassy staff has been trapped inside for four days now by the Nashi youth, whom the Estonian FM, Paets, accused of being paid by the government 3000 rubles a day for their spontaneous "demonstrating."
Estonia's government web sites are under cyberattack; some of the IPs, the foreign minister claimed, originated in the Russian presidential office.
If the Swedes get the pub and get the EU involved, fine. But this has been building for a week now.

Posted by Mizzou Mafia 2007-05-02 10:03|| 2007-05-02 10:03|| Front Page Top

#3 "Somebody in Washington needs to bring this matter to the front burner, now. "

Nope. Dont make it about the US, dont let the pro-authoritarian Russians change the subject to Iraq, or Guatemala in '54, or whatever. Let the Euros move it to the front burner first. Let them see what theyve got there. Let the Nordics ask the Germans and French for diplo back up first. The US should only get more visibly involved if either the Germans and French ask for help, or if they turn their backs.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-05-02 10:07|| 2007-05-02 10:07|| Front Page Top

#4 Time to kick the sh*t out of some random Russian diplomat. Eye for eye. Tooth for tooth.

Posted by Excalibur 2007-05-02 10:11|| 2007-05-02 10:11|| Front Page Top

#5 Nope. Dont make it about the US, dont let the pro-authoritarian Russians change the subject to Iraq, or Guatemala in '54, or whatever. Let the Euros move it to the front burner first.

Doesn't work that way, LH - Estonia is a member of NATO.

Posted by mrp 2007-05-02 10:23|| 2007-05-02 10:23|| Front Page Top

#6 Perhaps the Swedes should take this time to demand accountability for the fate of Raoul Wallenberg.

Posted by doc 2007-05-02 11:04|| 2007-05-02 11:04|| Front Page Top

#7 Doesn't work that way, LH - Estonia is a member of NATO.

So are Germany, France, the UK, Italy, etc. They are all Estonia's allies just as much as the US is. Let's see what being an ally of France and Germany is worth these days.

Posted by Laurence of the Rats">Laurence of the Rats 2007-05-02 11:05|| 2007-05-02 11:05|| Front Page Top

#8
Give Estonia the bomb.

Posted by Master of Obvious 2007-05-02 11:13|| 2007-05-02 11:13|| Front Page Top

#9 #5. Unless they have solid proof Russian intell was behind the riots, which I doubt, the Russians being pros and all, theres no immediate NATO matter. At this point the Estonians are looking for diplomatic support,as are their nordic friends. Now the Estonians have been pretty decent to us, and IF they ask for anything, Im not saying we should deny it. But lets wait to be asked.

Posted by liberalhawk 2007-05-02 11:43|| 2007-05-02 11:43|| Front Page Top

#10 Well well well. Looks like things are back to normal in the frozen east. I'm with LH and Laurence - let the other NATO members deal with it. Besides, collective defense is not the issue here. Plus, you wouldn't want to interrupt this educational session being put on by the Russkis. While the situation is different there may be some benefits akin to the effect on Japanese public opinion when the Chicoms organized that outrageous and barbaric attack on Japanese diplomatic properties. It's "mission accomplished" with Japan, as the Norks and Chicoms have helped move that country back into the realist column, and while the line-up is different in Europe, it can't hurt to have the barbarians scaring the effete parasites of western Europe a bit.

Posted by Verlaine 2007-05-02 11:48|| 2007-05-02 11:48|| Front Page Top

#11 Germans and French are probably afraid the Russians will turn off the gas or up the price for it anyway.

Posted by Ebbang Uluque6305 2007-05-02 11:53|| 2007-05-02 11:53|| Front Page Top

#12 The Russians have just shut off oil exports to Estonia, citing a "rescheduling of railway maintenance".

Link

Excerpt:

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian oil firms rushed on Wednesday to re-route a quarter of their refined products exports away from ports in Estonia after Russia's railways halted the route amid a political dispute with Tallinn.

Oil traders said the state railway monopoly was not accepting volumes slated for May shipment and they were looking now at Russian Baltic Sea ports and Ukraine's Black Sea outlets as alternative destinations.

Russian coal exporters also said May exports of Russian steam coal via Estonia had been effectively halted due to a shortage of rail wagons after the rail monopoly RzHD told them they must use their own rail wagons, not RzHD's, but it had not been possible with such short notice to find alternative wagons.

Up to 900,000 tonnes of May exports could be lost as a result, they said.

"It was bound to happen given the recent political dispute. And there is nothing new in the Russian reaction. Just look at the examples of the neighboring Latvia and Lithuania," said a trader with a Russian major.

European and U.S. leaders have repeatedly accused Russia of using its energy resources as a weapon against its neighbors. Russia has always denied it, citing different technical reasons for energy supply halts.

Posted by mrp 2007-05-02 11:56|| 2007-05-02 11:56|| Front Page Top

#13 Yep, the economic war has started.

this article has a pretty good rundown of what Russia is up to at this point.

This is a statement by the Estonian Foreign Minister charging Russia with orchestrating events on Estonian soil.

Even though I'm in Estonia, I agree with other commenters - I think this should be handled at the EU level right now. A lot of Estonians I know didn't want to vote to join the EU, but they did because they thought if they didn't -- they'd be somewhere "else", with the Kremlin's tentacles all over them.
Time to find out if the EU's vaunted "soft power" is worth anything to its members.

If you're interested in following this story at the ground level, Itching for Estonia probably has the most hoppin' blog on the events right now.

Posted by Mizzou Mafia 2007-05-02 12:21|| 2007-05-02 12:21|| Front Page Top

#14 MM, great links, and more when you have time, please.

Not only has Russia stopped RR oil and coal shipments to Estonian ports, according to Reuters, Russian RR energy shipments have been halted to ALL of the Baltic states' ports, with re-routing of rail traffic to Russian and Ukranian facilities.

It's likely that thousands of Baltic port workers, and those in related industries are going to take a major hit. I think it would be better if Washington made a public, but low-key statement now, given that Putin has escalated this matter considerably in just the last few hours.

Posted by mrp 2007-05-02 12:39|| 2007-05-02 12:39|| Front Page Top

#15 Russia wants the Baltics back and knows there is no one in Europe who will stop them. If the Dems win in 2008, look for the Russian bear to start ambling west in 2009. This should be a clue to the clueless EUnichs who are becoming more dependent upon the Russians for natural gas.

Posted by RWV 2007-05-02 14:21|| 2007-05-02 14:21|| Front Page Top

#16 Estonia would be a good place for an anti-missile system.

Posted by Sonar 2007-05-02 16:38|| 2007-05-02 16:38|| Front Page Top

#17 Interesting: Põlevkivi (oil shale) provides over 75% of Estonia's total energy supply, making Estonia the only country in the world where oil shale is the primary source of energy. ... Eesti Põlevkivi forecasts stable production of about 12 million tons per year for the next five years, but after 2006 production likely will fall as Estonia tries to curb pollution from the oil shale industry in an effort to meet EU environmental regulations.

The next sources are coal (2M tonnes) and gas from Russia. It would be easy for Europeans to guarantee Estonia's energy supply. A European pledge of Estonia's territorial integrity might even restore some respect Old Europe.

Posted by ed 2007-05-02 17:07|| 2007-05-02 17:07|| Front Page Top

#18 #13: "Time to find out if the EU's vaunted "soft power" is worth anything to its members."

No need to wait - it ain't worth shit.

Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut 2007-05-02 18:39|| http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/]">[http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/] 2007-05-02 18:39|| Front Page Top

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