Article

2007-08-23 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Analysis : Hezbollah's 'Big Surprise' in the next war

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Posted by Fred 2007-08-23 00:00|| || Front Page|| [3 views ] Top
File under: Hezbollah

#1 Must be more since various Net sites have reported on the Hezzies'. etal. new toys = weapons for a while now, so Israeli INTEL shouldn't be caught off guard. IMO, the "big surprise" is likely more related to Israel's enemies having indigenous LR IRBMS wid WMD warheads, and Russ lifting of its own Cold War sanctions agz giving nuclear mortars and tacnuke tech for the Hezzies' rockets.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2007-08-23 01:15|| 2007-08-23 01:15|| Front Page Top

#2 world's finest guerrilla army

Oh! Oh! A litter baby meme! Let's stomp it.

Posted by Thomas Woof 2007-08-23 05:54|| 2007-08-23 05:54|| Front Page Top

#3 Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah

woof! Grrr. BoW Wow

SloberSneezeShakesHead!

Posted by Red Dawg">Red Dawg 2007-08-23 06:49|| 2007-08-23 06:49|| Front Page Top

#4 Russ lifting of its own Cold War sanctions agz giving nuclear mortars and tacnuke tech for the Hezzies' rockets.

Joe, they are bastids, but not insane. It would bite them back into ass in a big way.

OTOH, I don't exclude a posiblity of a black market. However, this would be likely "I have a bridge to sell" scenario, i.e. degraded, non-working nuke ammo. For instance, Russkis left about 1200 tacnukes in Bulgaria, manufactured in early 80's, not bothering to take them back with them when they withdrew their brotherly forces in 1989. One local dude was selling them recently for about $750 a piece, from a wire-fenced site with a padlock on the main gate. He is probably in a slammer at this moment, or should be, but he did sell at last a dozen.

Posted by twobyfour 2007-08-23 06:51|| 2007-08-23 06:51|| Front Page Top

#5 Nasrallah's "Big Surprise" is premised that the idea that the Israeli won't use maneuver and because of that omission, which was glaring in the 2006 war, that Hezbollah will have unimpeded resupply routes for men and materiel, and that artillery displacement routines will actually work as well as they did in 2006.

I think next round Nasrallah's surpise will be the effectiveness of Israeli counterbattery fire. Why risk a multi-million dollar airplane for a few well placed DPICM rounds?

Posted by badanov 2007-08-23 07:33|| http://www.freefirezone.org]">[http://www.freefirezone.org] 2007-08-23 07:33|| Front Page Top

#6 The Israelis should have cleared to the Litani the last time. They made a huge mistake of not doing so - coastal thrust, the up the Litani and across for the Golan, they would have bagged the entire Hezzie army and defeated it in detail. But they went with piecemeal uncoordinated pinpricks.

If Israel is that stupid again, they deserve defeat.

Posted by OldSpook 2007-08-23 08:44|| 2007-08-23 08:44|| Front Page Top

#7 Israel shouldn't play their games. If war happens they should head North to Damascus (and set up a puppet, perhaps Kurd government) and then out of Syria into the Ba'ka valley and deal with the Litani line from the North.

Posted by rjschwarz 2007-08-23 13:54|| 2007-08-23 13:54|| Front Page Top

#8 Israel should wipe the entire Litani "line" out with nukes, from the Med to the Bekaa. Then they would have a PERMANENT (at least 3-5000 years), glass-lined border. Annex the southern bank, if possible, after clearing the Lebanese and UNIFIL. Lebanon will be smaller, but the percentage of non-Shi'ites would be considerably larger. Win-win.

Posted by Old Patriot">Old Patriot 2007-08-23 15:57|| http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/]">[http://oldpatriot.blogspot.com/] 2007-08-23 15:57|| Front Page Top

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