Article

2008-02-13 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by phil_b 2008-02-13 18:29|| || Front Page|| [11135 views ] Top

#1 The real threat in the Middle East is that Iran miscalculates and brings an Israeli or American military response.

The chances of that miscalculation have dramatically increased. This time they won't go through their proxies like Hizbollah and pretend they are independent actors. This time they will have to make it clear their proxies are acting under direct orders from Tehran.

This will give Israel the green light to attack Iran in response. Iran will assume Israel will go after their well protected nuclear facilities.

The Israelis aren't stupid and will hit Iran where it hurts the most and we all know that's their oil refineries. Set 4 or 5 oil refineries on fire, the Iranian economy implodes and the Iranian regime will collapse in a matter of weeks.

Posted by phil_b 2008-02-13 18:43|| 2008-02-13 18:43|| Front Page Top

#2 so Iran mourns the killer of US Marines, CIA-Leb guy Buckley, USN Diver Stetham, Jews in Argentina, et al.

Anyone gonna note this in a presidential debate? Perhaps Barack Obama should be made to answer how he's have a "dialogue" with such a regime?

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2008-02-13 18:58|| 2008-02-13 18:58|| Front Page Top

#3 I'm seriously sick of these gits. We should pick one of their cities and turn it into a rubble pile using conventional weapons. Don't announce we're doing it, say nothing about it, just turn it into rubble. Give them a hint that we can do that to their entire country and I think you'd see them shut up and it'd do alot to put some very healthy fear back into Iran and the others.

Posted by Silentbrick">Silentbrick 2008-02-13 19:02|| 2008-02-13 19:02|| Front Page Top

#4 Think Iran will now push Oogo into making good on his threat to cut off the US?

I just filled my tank.

Posted by Seafarious 2008-02-13 19:03|| 2008-02-13 19:03|| Front Page Top

#5 I wouldn't put it past them, Sea.

Posted by lotp 2008-02-13 19:08|| 2008-02-13 19:08|| Front Page Top

#6 The British and American courts are pushing Hugeaux into freezing his shipments to the US because they will be seized to make good the money he owes Exxon.

And as I understand it, it is difficult for refineries to handle the heavy Venezuelan crude. Ours specialize in it. And it costs a lot to transport it to another user (China) who will not want to pay the transit premium for it when better ME oil is more readily available at a lower price. Sucks to be yougeaux between a rock and a hard place.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-02-13 19:28|| 2008-02-13 19:28|| Front Page Top

#7 NS, I've seen similar versions of your argument posted many times here at the 'Burg, and I'm not sure I buy it. US refinery capacity is also limited, and I bet we can't convert the heavy crude refineries into light sweet crude refineries at the drop of a hat.

Regardless of what happens to Venezuela's economy, taking their oil off the US market will throw a HUGE wrench into the gears of the world economy.

I don't like it.

Posted by Seafarious 2008-02-13 19:33|| 2008-02-13 19:33|| Front Page Top

#8 It will have a psychological impact, if nothing else - including on the election, I suspect.

Posted by lotp 2008-02-13 19:35|| 2008-02-13 19:35|| Front Page Top

#9 I doubt it would throw a huge wrench into the world economy. It would inconvenience the US economy as it did when numerous Gulf refineries went off line in the Katrina hurricane year and the price of gas would go up for Americans, especially. But the timing of doing that as we are sliding into recession, or at least slooow growth, would not be as great as in boom times. And the impact on the already ailing Venezuelan economy would be much greater than the impact on the U. S. or the world.

I am sure some Rantburger knows better than I, but I believe it is a lot easier to switch from heavy to light sweet, than vice versa.

So over all, Yoogeaux is in not nearly as strong a position as if he had been put in this box a year ago. And neither he nor the Iranians is in control of the serve at the moment.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-02-13 19:41|| 2008-02-13 19:41|| Front Page Top

#10 perhaps this is the wedge to get ANWR opened?

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2008-02-13 19:43|| 2008-02-13 19:43|| Front Page Top

#11 And would that huge psychological impact on the election redound to Hugh" benefit? Not clear to me. Americans tend not to be happy when their gas price increases. And if the culprit is big Hugh instead of big oil, who does it help?

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-02-13 19:44|| 2008-02-13 19:44|| Front Page Top

#12 The simplistic response of many consumers might well be to a) blame Bush for not getting along with other countries and then b) vote for a Democrat who promises to fix all the economic boo boos.

Posted by lotp 2008-02-13 19:46|| 2008-02-13 19:46|| Front Page Top

#13 I don't think most people are that dumb, and I do think that while the MSM might be able to fool more of them in a non-election year by ignoring Bush as they have very effectively for the last 3, they'd have a hard time drowning out McCain and his use of the issue to demonstrate how ineffective an Obama administration would be in dealing with petro-tyrants. Remember, this is being controlled by the courts, not the statesmen or the businessmen.

Posted by Nimble Spemble 2008-02-13 19:52|| 2008-02-13 19:52|| Front Page Top

#14 It's really not difficult to refine light, sweet crude in a facility built to refine heavy. You by-pass certain steps in the process. It takes longer to refine heavy and the un-refineables in heavy are greater. Shouldn't be a problem at all.

Posted by Deacon Blues">Deacon Blues 2008-02-13 20:09|| 2008-02-13 20:09|| Front Page Top

#15 seafarious, we change our refineries every spring and autumn too make diff kinds of gas, so i guess it would be on about the same level as swapping in diff grades of crude and i'm sure we also have refineries online too already process ME crude since i seriously doubt all our oil comes from venezuela

Posted by sinse 2008-02-13 20:14|| 2008-02-13 20:14|| Front Page Top

#16 DB is right - the cacking process is shortened, not altered. China, Iran, et al can make all the promises they want. Hugo's got nothing they can handle. Looks like another Communist welfare state (living on subsidies a la Cuba/USSR) is their only option. Or.... a 9mm headache for el presidente

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2008-02-13 20:14|| 2008-02-13 20:14|| Front Page Top

#17 Frank - I vote for what's behind Door #2. :-D

Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut 2008-02-13 20:34|| http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/]">[http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/] 2008-02-13 20:34|| Front Page Top

#18 Ultimately, the MSM and the Democrats spin this to show Bush and the Republicans are to blame, Americans pay higher prices at the pump while believing that the economy is sliding towards depression (the MSM already has a majority believing we're in a recession), and the Venezuelan people suffer as their economy actually does slide towards disaster and ruin.

Meanwhile, Iran and its allies cut production to force oil prices higher and higher which has further influence on the US and world economy. They believe they're boxing the US in when, in reality, they're seriously underestimating what the some nations will do to maintain the flow of oil at reasonable prices.

Sooner or later, somebody, like Japan or China is going to feel the pinch seriously and is going to take actions to stop the pain. The same sort of thing forced Japan and the US to war in WW2. I can see it happening again if everyone is not very, very careful.

Posted by FOTSGreg">FOTSGreg 2008-02-13 20:34|| 2008-02-13 20:34|| Front Page Top

#19 LINK
US welcomes death of 'cold-blooded killer'

Meanwhile Wednesday, the United States applauded the Mugniyah's killing.

"The world is a better place without this man in it. He was a cold-blooded killer, a mass murderer and a terrorist responsible for countless innocent lives lost," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. "One way or another he was brought to justice."

McCormack said he did not know who was responsible for the killing of Moughniyah.

Posted by 3dc 2008-02-13 20:43|| 2008-02-13 20:43|| Front Page Top

#20 er...cracking, not cacking

Posted by Frank G">Frank G 2008-02-13 20:48|| 2008-02-13 20:48|| Front Page Top

#21 Hmmm, I could have sworn I was posting that comment to an article on Hugo threatening to cut off oil supplies to the US.

Now I can't even find the article...

Posted by FOTSGreg">FOTSGreg 2008-02-13 20:55|| 2008-02-13 20:55|| Front Page Top

#22 Iran: Mugniyah's death will shake Zionist regime

Yeah, well too bad he won't be around to see it.
I wonder how many of these assholes are sitting around tonight wondering who's gonna be next?

Posted by tu3031 2008-02-13 21:34|| 2008-02-13 21:34|| Front Page Top

#23 Hovensa, the refinery on St. Croix, USVI processes the Venezuelan crude. Would hurt Puerto Ricans and the islanders the most.

Posted by Danielle 2008-02-13 22:39|| 2008-02-13 22:39|| Front Page Top

#24 Again, many dedic believers in both mainstream Islam + Radical Islam hold that their faith-ideo as a whole is in a DO OR DIE, RULE OR FOLLOW, HEAVEN OR HELL, etc. SITUATION, THAT ISLAM = ISLAMISM MUST BE VALIDATED, OR ELSE WHOLLY DISCREDITED IFF NOT DESTROYED.

OSAMA, etc. > believes that the BE-ALL, END-ALL, FINAL APOCALYPSE FOR ISLAM/ISLAMISM MUST BE WON OR LOST IN IRAN PROPER, AS PER ISLAMIC END-TIMES BELIEF. The anti-US-Western insurgent efforts in IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, AFRICA, etc. are all TERTIARY = SECONDARY TO OSAMA's PERCEIVED "FINAL/DECISIVE BATTLE" OF ISLAM/ISLAMISM BEING WON OR LOST IN IRAN.

IOW, DESPITE THE US VICTORIES IN IRAQ + AFGHANISTAN, OSAMA > THE REAL BATTLEFIELD IS IN IRAN, i.e. HAS NOT BEEN FOUGHT YET BETWEEN THE US = US-ALLIES VERSUS ISLAM = RADICAL ISLAMISM.
NO US-IRAN "APOCALYPSE" IN IRAN PROPER = ISLAMIST WAR AGZ US-WEST WILL GO ON INDEFINITELY, AT LEAST FOR THE DURATION OF OBL'S LIFETIME [ZAWI, etc OBL close company].

Think OSAMA = JOHN PAUL JONES > IRAN > "AMERICA, YOU HAVEN'T YET EVEN BEGUN TO FIGHT in Iran]"! ALso rememeber the RADICAL MULLAHS' penchant for GLOBAL/UNIVERSAL MUTUAL DESTRUCTION.

DANGER FOR USA > NO US-IRAN WAR IN IRAN + ISLAMIST LOVE FOR MUTUAL DESTRUCTION + OSAMA/ISLAMIST END-TIMES MYTH , etc = AMERICAN HIROHIMAS/NEW 9-11's??? Recall Anti-US AGENDISTS > IFF AMERICA DOES NOT ATTACK = WAGE WAR, AMERICA WILL BE ATTACKED = WARRED AGAINST. 9-11 > RADICAL ISLAM IS WAGING A REGIONAL-GLOBAL, ZERO-SUM END GAME, NOT A PARTIAL!

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-02-13 23:13|| 2008-02-13 23:13|| Front Page Top

#25 ISLAMISM MUST BE VALIDATED, OR ELSE WHOLLY DISCREDITED IFF NOT DESTROYED.

Can I bid on the second choice, Joe? ;-)

I am not sure them Islamists see it that way--in their conviction that the validation is a given, but at some point, when time and circumstances are ripe, it may be worth trying to dismatle pillars of Islam in a quick progresion or at once. I mean... no one tried yet, so you may be right and Islam would fold like a house of cards. If not, the action would still render Islam largely toothless and probably push it on a quick (within 2 generations or such) demise curve.

Posted by twobyfour 2008-02-13 23:56|| 2008-02-13 23:56|| Front Page Top

23:58 Rex Mundi
23:56 twobyfour
23:55 Rex Mundi
23:49 Icerigger
23:47 Icerigger
23:43 anymouse
23:42 BigEd
23:40 Nancy Pelosi
23:40 BigEd
23:36 BigEd
23:32 3dc
23:27 JosephMendiola
23:21 JosephMendiola
23:19 Junior Asst. Sock Puppet of Doom
23:13 Big Spinetch2077
23:13 JosephMendiola
23:07 phil_b
22:54 trailing wife
22:53 SR-71
22:41 Frank G
22:39 Danielle
22:37 crosspatch
22:37 ed
22:35 crosspatch