Article

2008-10-03 China-Japan-Koreas

The world shouldn't fear the collapse of North Korea

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Posted by ryuge 2008-10-03 07:13|| || Front Page|| [6 views ] Top

#1 Some questions:

What nuclear arsenal? Last time I heard, they had nothing deliverable, and the test attempt was a dud. Dirty bomb, but that's it. Nuclear material, you betcha we gotta worry about that.

Also, are not men mortal? The death of Kimmie will happen sooner or later.

I predict business as usual.

Posted by Ptah">Ptah 2008-10-03 08:00|| http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org]">[http://www.crusaderwarcollege.org] 2008-10-03 08:00|| Front Page Top

#2 South Korea has had the perfect storm of good luck since the 1960's: big capital infusion from Uncle Sam for providing troops to the Vietnam War, lots of jobs for Korean firms building roads in the same war, simple defense lines at home with Uncle Sugar paying a minimum of 2/3 the cost, export-driven economy with a protected market at home...yeah, life has been good for them.

If the Norks collapse, all that's gone. Lots of poor Norks to feed, house, educate and employ will mean Sork taxes go up, Sork living standards go down (Sork unions will be toast), and they'll have that LONG border with China and Russia to protect with Uncle Sugar already halfway out the door.

No, things won't be too good in Sorkland once the North implodes. No wonder they're so damned scared of it.

Posted by Jolutch Mussolini7800 2008-10-03 08:38|| 2008-10-03 08:38|| Front Page Top

#3 From what I've read the South would love North Korea to have a sane dictator for awhile to bring them up to the modern age before unification. If North Korea collapses everyone will expect South Korea to be heavily involved in any kind of rebuilding and that would take them out of the game for a decade or more.

Posted by rjschwarz 2008-10-03 12:27|| 2008-10-03 12:27|| Front Page Top

#4 probable scenario

1. K J-I dies

2. secret junta rules for 3 months before making KJI death public

3. secret junta rules for 3 more months before selecting a new chief biggie

4. new chief biggie resigns

beginning in the late phase 2 a mass immigration to the South begins, by phase 3 this movement begins to be far more than the South can handle and they begin to have a quiet representative in the North Junta in exchange for lots of cash which is used in part to keep Nork peasants out of the South but in a few months this arrangement breaks down and the South is forced to take control of the North

Posted by mhw 2008-10-03 15:06|| 2008-10-03 15:06|| Front Page Top

#5 Decently plausible scenario. Maybe we are at step 2 already.

Posted by JAB 2008-10-03 19:19|| 2008-10-03 19:19|| Front Page Top

#6 Fear it? I'm looking forward to it.

Wonder who will inherit the bunny suit?

Posted by Barbara Skolaut">Barbara Skolaut 2008-10-03 21:15|| http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/]">[http://ariellestjohndesigns.com/] 2008-10-03 21:15|| Front Page Top

#7 MSM-NET > CHINA is reportedly already mentoring/grooming Kimmie's potential successors, which essen means that nothing will take place in NOKOR unless CHINA = CHINESE MODEL FOR NORTH KOREA IS SATISFIED AND INCORPORATED INTO ANY NOKOR AND OR PAN-KOREAN SOLUTION.

AGain, RUSSO-GEIRGIAN CONFLICT + US-PAKISTAN QUARRELINGS > the US is now engaged ina new war wid Radicla Islamism for the control of EURASIA in general, and ASIA in particular AS ISLAMIST PRIORITY = MAIN STRATEGIC WAR FRONT OUTSIDE OF IRAQ, vee "ATTACKING WHERE THE US/US-ALLIES ARE NOT". CHINA is Pakistan's ally and, more importantly, is historically ANTI-EURO/WESTERN = "CHINA FOR CHINESE, ASIA FOR ASIANS".

INDIA's ANTI-CHRISTIAN HINDU VIOLENCE > IMO, Many HINDUS recognize that any Islamist defeat vee USA, etc. may result in US-WEST/NATO-EU domin presence-control throughout ASIA of which INDIA per se is just one nation.

Taken colectively, methinks its safe to say that the NOKOR situation wil be closely linked to how CHINA ACCEPTS = NOT ACCEPTS ANY INTENSIVE POST-GWOT US-WEST INFLUENCE IN ASIA. Many Chin Netters suppor unilateral CHIN MIL INTERVENTION in PAKISTAN + FORMER SOVIET SSRS, ETC. BOTH TO PROTECT CHINA FROM THE LOCAL-REGIONAL ISLAMIST MILITANT THREAT AND TO KEEP THE US-WEST OUT OF ASIA.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-10-03 22:25|| 2008-10-03 22:25|| Front Page Top

#8 Again, the MAP OF ASIA as many generations of AMers know it to be may look different post-WOT, or even after Year 2015 or 2020. IT'S A VERY DANGEROUS TIME FOR THE US, ASIA, + WORLD RIGHT NOW.

Posted by JosephMendiola 2008-10-03 22:31|| 2008-10-03 22:31|| Front Page Top

#9 I also wouldn't mind seeing mhw's scenerio plan happen. It sounds reasonable and far better than other options I've heard. I would also add another step, and increase in the number of Southerners able to go to the North to visit relatives (and thus introduce a lot of currency into the north in the process). Possibly an agreement to build some factories in the North to get the north working and to provide South Korea with really cheap labor could ease the transition. If the South is smart they would try to staff those factories with North Korean military types so they have something else to do rather than playing with guns or going hungry.

Posted by rjschwarz 2008-10-03 23:05|| 2008-10-03 23:05|| Front Page Top

#10 I always wondered what would happen if say Vladvostok took the old Hong Kong book of laws and government and allowed any North Korean (or Chinese) who could get there to be citizens and work. I mean it worked so well for Hong Kong, what would it take to rekindle that lightening?

Posted by rjschwarz 2008-10-03 23:06|| 2008-10-03 23:06|| Front Page Top

23:49 Flitch the Imposter aka Broadhead6
23:47 Flitch the Imposter aka Broadhead6
23:34 Flitch the Imposter aka Broadhead6
23:30 Flitch the Imposter aka Broadhead6
23:16 Flitch the Imposter aka Broadhead6
23:14 Barbara Skolaut
23:14 Flitch the Imposter aka Broadhead6
23:11 rjschwarz
23:10 Dino Pholulet5957
23:09 James Watt
23:06 rjschwarz
23:05 rjschwarz
23:01 JosephMendiola
23:01 Flitch the Imposter aka Broadhead6
22:54 Pappy
22:41 Jolutch Mussolini7800
22:36 JosephMendiola
22:31 JosephMendiola
22:30 Jolutch Mussolini7800
22:29 Frank G
22:29 Eric Jablow
22:25 JosephMendiola
22:24 Richard Aubrey
22:09 JosephMendiola