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2009-01-23 Home Front Economy

Roubini, Edwards Predict Slump in S&P 500 on China

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Posted by Besoeker 2009-01-23 12:41|| || Front Page|| [2 views ] Top

#1 China is in the same boat as the US was in the 1930s. Most of its GDP is in exports and manufacturing. With the rest of the world cutting back on imports, there is no way China can continue growing economically. Added on to this is all the 18-21 year old males coming into the job market that have grown up in the boom times and do not know a recession/depression.
Bad times ahead for China.

Posted by DarthVader 2009-01-23 13:25|| 2009-01-23 13:25|| Front Page Top

#2 the 18-21 year old males coming into the job market that have grown up in the boom times and do not know a recession/depression.

And have somewhat reduced chances of finding a girlfriend.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2009-01-23 14:01|| 2009-01-23 14:01|| Front Page Top

#3 China is in the same boat as the US was in the 1930s. Most of its GDP is in exports and manufacturing
Don't know about that, DarthVader.
The US during the depression was hit with a triple whammy, a stock market collapse, a banking collapse and an agriculture collapse (La Nina)
At the time 40% of the US workforse was in agriculture and was forced (painfully) into manufacturing.
The Chinese still have a much higher agricultural force, which will act as a shock absorber for the economy.
And of course all the banks are nationalized, been since Mao's time. The toxic level of debt which has infected the world from the US is less than 3% so they are less exposed.
The rumor is that they are going to undertake a massive infrastructure investment, the largest the world has ever seen.

Posted by tipper 2009-01-23 14:52|| 2009-01-23 14:52|| Front Page Top

#4 The rumor is that they are going to undertake a massive infrastructure investment, the largest the world has ever seen.

A-la new deal communist style? Still ain't gonna work. Especially with a new generation of men that expect everything their parents had and more, don't have women to date and can't get a job.
Agriculture doesn't have large profits. A net 10-20% profit loss compare from farming vs. manufacturing is a huge money difference.
I have also seen some China experts predicting their banks are running some 60% bad debt with only the government saving the banks by funding them with the trade surplus money. What happens when that money goes away?

Will China collapse, most likely not. Will they have unrest and riots? Oh yeah. I expect the Chinese to try to solve these problems through military expansion. Siberia would be a nice addition to China.

Posted by DarthVader 2009-01-23 16:42|| 2009-01-23 16:42|| Front Page Top

#5 CHINESE MIL FORUM > OBAMA SETTING THE STAGE FOR A TRADE WAR WITH CHINA [Yuan = anti-US currency manipulation]!? + CHINA TALKS, US DEBT MARKETS LISTEN!? + WHY CHINA'S STATE-CONTROLLED CAPITALISM WORKS!.

* ION OBAMA, SAME > NEW POTUS MAY BEGIN START-III CUTS AHEAD OF THE RUSSIANS [Russ don't like either START-1 or START-2, desire a new START-3]???

* ION CHINA, WND > "PARTIAL WAR" LOOMING BETWEEN CHINA AND INDIA [India's Arunachal Pradesh = India-occupied China's Southern Tibet]???

Posted by JosephMendiola 2009-01-23 19:40|| 2009-01-23 19:40|| Front Page Top

#6 Agriculture doesn't have large profits. A net 10-20% profit loss compare from farming vs. manufacturing is a huge money difference.

Agriculture is less of a business and more like social security. Any migrant worker can return to their communal farm and grab an allotment. Doesn't pay much, but at least they don't starve and the government isn't out of pocket. Compare that with the horrendous escalating welfare bill in the US, expected to grow exponentially under Bambi. After all he did promised to pay gas and rent bills, didn't he?

I have also seen some China experts predicting their banks are running some 60% bad debt with only the government saving the banks by funding them with the trade surplus money. What happens when that money goes away?
It used to be 30~40% about 10 years ago, now down to a manageable 7%

Oh yeah. I expect the Chinese to try to solve these problems through military expansion. Siberia would be a nice addition to China.

You could be right there. I see Russia is imploding, which means Putin is gone. Without the strong man, don't know who will hold them together. So quiet likely China will move in, if not militarily at least establish hegemony over the area.

Posted by tipper 2009-01-23 22:34|| 2009-01-23 22:34|| Front Page Top

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