Article

2012-01-04 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

'Syrian opposition may soon topple Assad'

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Posted by phil_b 2012-01-04 04:02|| || Front Page|| [8 views ] Top

#1 Yea, sure.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2012-01-04 05:13|| 2012-01-04 05:13|| Front Page Top

#2 In truth, Bashar Assad never had much real support. His daddy, Hafez, took power after decades of coups and counter-coups, and methodically crushed all opponents, becoming dictator by default.

But this never eliminated the internal divisions, just cowed them. Bashar was such a weakling that his daddy set up a power sharing agreement with about 4 others to keep him from completely fouling up until he could figure out how to be a ruthless dictator himself.

He really just doesn't have "the gift", despite endless help from his little cabal and foreign powers. So the big question is how quickly he will fold, and what happens to Syria after that?

It will likely turn into a proxy war between Sunni and Shiites, with the few Alawite tribes that support Bashar aligned with Hezbollah imported from Lebanon, and any Iranians they can bring over, versus a lot of very pissed off Sunnis. And the Kurds in the north will take any opportunity to secede and join Iraqi Kurdistan.

So it's pretty ugly on a stick.

His building himself a "Castle Blackskull" Fuhrerbunker shows that he has run out his string and plans to evacuate from Damascus.

Posted by Anonymoose 2012-01-04 08:44|| 2012-01-04 08:44|| Front Page Top

#3 the various regional powers as well as all the asyrian factions are now negotiating and planning for a post Assad era.

not all of this is gentle either; the Moslem brotherhood hopes to take control of syria in a few years, Hezbollah hopes to retain influence, the Alawites hope to retain their lives, the Turks expect effective control of the northern border and the Kurds expect a defacto Kurdish province or two.

Posted by Lord Garth 2012-01-04 09:43|| 2012-01-04 09:43|| Front Page Top

#4 He is certainly a pencil-necked a-hole...but he has a very pretty wife. Wonder what will become of her in all of this.

Posted by remoteman 2012-01-04 16:00|| 2012-01-04 16:00|| Front Page Top

#5 Remoteman, if they are smart, they'd get their families to head for Switzerland *now*. With bearer instruments for cash.

Posted by OldSpook 2012-01-04 20:43|| 2012-01-04 20:43|| Front Page Top

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