Article

2020-04-07 -Short Attention Span Theater-

CDC director downplays coronavirus models, says death toll will be 'much lower' than projected

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Besoeker 2020-04-07 09:50|| || Front Page|| [11129 views ] Top

#1 Just like the 'models' on gerbal warming

The experts aren't

Posted by Procopius2k 2020-04-07 11:34|| 2020-04-07 11:34|| Front Page Top

#2 Models are useful for predicting what will happen given a certain set of assumptions.

Posted by Iblis 2020-04-07 12:06|| 2020-04-07 12:06|| Front Page Top

#3 I've heard the devil is in the details.

I guess they don't teach that in journalism school.

Posted by Bobby 2020-04-07 12:55|| 2020-04-07 12:55|| Front Page Top

#4 GIGO

Posted by Abu Uluque 2020-04-07 12:56|| 2020-04-07 12:56|| Front Page Top

#5 First of all, lets clear one thing. They all use the same model - just give different values to parameters.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-07 13:14|| 2020-04-07 13:14|| Front Page Top

#6 First of all, lets clear one thing. They all use the same model - just give different values to parameters.

That's a key point. This is a novel virus, meaning it's not just the latest fad, but that we've never been exposed to it before. We don't know what the parameters like infection rate and mortality are.

For a first pass, they ~~just pulled some numbers from their ass~~ took a best-guess as the value of the model parameters. This lead to what in hindsight are wild over-estimates. As we get some better data, the model parameters get updated with better values and we see more realistic answers.

The sin here is not bad models, but that results were sold without *any* kind of estimates as the range and uncertainty of the parameter values. That is bad science.

Posted by SteveS 2020-04-07 14:12|| 2020-04-07 14:12|| Front Page Top

#7 Steve, it's the same model (from 1930es) they use for any epidemic: viral, bacterial, or protozoan.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-07 14:24|| 2020-04-07 14:24|| Front Page Top

#8 Models are a modern form of superstition. They make gullible people believe certain outcomes are inevitable. Can you say Calvinism? I knew ya could....

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-04-07 17:38|| 2020-04-07 17:38|| Front Page Top

#9 Well, I don't know MM. I just know that, as new evidence accumulates, old models become outdated and have to be replaced.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2020-04-07 17:57|| 2020-04-07 17:57|| Front Page Top

#10 Schnork...

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-04-07 18:12|| 2020-04-07 18:12|| Front Page Top

#11 The "math" is an incantation. The "results" are entrails and tea leaves. Believers become enraged when this is pointed out...

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-04-07 19:35|| 2020-04-07 19:35|| Front Page Top

#12 Mathematics is just another human language. It can be twisted like any other. People who proselytize about the "purity" of mathematics know exactly what they are doing.

Posted by M. Murcek 2020-04-07 21:44|| 2020-04-07 21:44|| Front Page Top

23:45 Old Patriot
22:23 trailing wife
22:21 M. Murcek
22:01 Old Patriot
21:48 Vernal Hatrick
21:45 Vernal Hatrick
21:44 Frank G
21:44 M. Murcek
21:42 Frank G
21:39 SteveS
21:31 lord garth
21:24 Besoeker
21:22 AlmostAnonymous5839
21:17 trailing wife
21:16 trailing wife
21:10 trailing wife
20:18 USN, Ret.
20:15 Capsu78
20:09 Capsu78
20:06 jpal
20:05 Thaith Elmeresing6163
19:59 Thaith Elmeresing6163
19:58 Alistaire Tingle9882
19:55 Alistaire Tingle9882