Archived material Access restricted Article
Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Mon 10/19/2020 View Sun 10/18/2020 View Sat 10/17/2020 View Fri 10/16/2020 View Thu 10/15/2020 View Wed 10/14/2020 View Tue 10/13/2020
1
2020-10-19 China-Japan-Koreas
Chinese military beefs up coastal forces as it prepares for possible invasion of Taiwan
Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
Posted by Fred 2020-10-19 00:00|| || Front Page|| [11124 views ]  Top
 File under: Commies 

#1 Course, a couple of Littoral Destroyers traversing the strait would disrupt pretty much all of that.
Posted by Skidmark 2020-10-19 00:51||   2020-10-19 00:51|| Front Page Top

#2 I worry about Election Day for China's attack on Taiwan and maybe Guam
Posted by 3dc 2020-10-19 01:17||   2020-10-19 01:17|| Front Page Top

#3 
Posted by Jiling Gravitch9209 2020-10-19 07:46||   2020-10-19 07:46|| Front Page Top

#4 An invasion of Taiwan would require a D-Day level of effort. Taiwan is about as far from China as Normandy is from England, around 100 miles. Nasty channel to go through. Requires massive logistical support. Massive amount of sea lift capability (which China currently lacks).

In order for the invasion to have even a shot of working, not only will China need air superiority over the island (where the air forces are roughly parity when factoring in Taiwanese SAMs and MANPADs and modern western jets), but they will have to get almost 2.5 million men landed within 30 days before typhoon season hits. They simply don't have the capability to do so currently.
Posted by DarthVader 2020-10-19 09:11||   2020-10-19 09:11|| Front Page Top

#5 Thanks for these insights DV.
Posted by Besoeker 2020-10-19 09:16||   2020-10-19 09:16|| Front Page Top

#6 I was talking with a ....colleague about this recently. He remarked that Taiwan specifically does not have plan for PLA POWs. Well they have A plan, just not one that involves taking prisoners....

There is just no way for the PRC to achieve tactical surprise on this. Sure they can light up Taiwan with missiles/rockets and degrade ROC C4I but eventually they have to put boots on the ground.
Posted by Bangkok Billy 2020-10-19 11:27||   2020-10-19 11:27|| Front Page Top

#7 If you have to feed somebody BB, it might as well be the 'fishes'.
Posted by Mullah Richard 2020-10-19 11:54||   2020-10-19 11:54|| Front Page Top

#8 I've never understood this constant drum banging. Any invasion of Taiwan just... wouldn't be worth it. You would have to destroy everything that makes Taiwan worth invading (the people, the cities, the infrastructure). I don't doubt that the Chinese are stupid enough to do that, but it just defies all sense. This is exactly what they did through 2019 in Hong Kong as well.
Posted by Vernal Hatrick 2020-10-19 15:15||   2020-10-19 15:15|| Front Page Top

#9 I've never understood this constant drum banging.

The CCP always goes into overdrive when Taiwan gives hints of abandoning the One China idea. Or when they are having issues domestically. Gives the people something to rally behind the CCP.

Both of these are happening now, along with the trade war with the US and the lack of dollar access for the CCP.

I don't think they will try to invade as right now it is a not even 50-50 shot at success. Maybe in 2024 with more sea lift ships built and a China friendly US administration. But I still think China won't really risk it unless they stand to lose significant face with Taiwan going full independent or an imminent collapse of their political power internally. Just isn't worth the risk. Although the CCP may be on very shaky ground right now and if Trump wins again, the April window where the weather is better in the channel may be go time. October is better if the CCP can hang on that long.
Posted by DarthVader 2020-10-19 15:57||   2020-10-19 15:57|| Front Page Top

#10 Why assume they're rational?
Posted by Spike Gray1879 2020-10-19 16:13||   2020-10-19 16:13|| Front Page Top

#11 "I've never understood this constant drum banging. Any invasion of Taiwan just... wouldn't be worth it."

As w/HKSAR, the CCP is playing to its 1.4 billion internal audience. The long range plan is to either assimilate (or replace) the current populations of TWN and HK..one way or another. In HK they've done through a slow (150/day) migration from the PRC over the course of the last 23 years. I suspect the TWN approach will be a bit more dynamic and shorter in length.
Posted by Bangkok Billy 2020-10-19 20:09||   2020-10-19 20:09|| Front Page Top

#12 If China attacks Taiwan, Taiwan should destroy the Three Gorges Dam.
Posted by Kofi Cleremble2192 2020-10-19 20:36||   2020-10-19 20:36|| Front Page Top

23:35 SteveS
23:34 swksvolFF
23:24 Theager Borgia1057
23:23 Theager Borgia1057
23:22 Theager Borgia1057
23:19 Neil the Totally Not Angry at All6006
23:13 swksvolFF
23:01 gorb
23:01 swksvolFF
22:52 Whinenter Ghibelline1881
22:29 Boss Snenter4805
21:46 Rob Crawford
21:45 Theager Borgia1057
21:23 trailing wife
21:08 trailing wife
20:55 SteveS
20:51 Injun Dingle6475
20:49 Snakes Wittlesbach3955
20:38 SteveS
20:36 Kofi Cleremble2192
20:29 gorb
20:22 DarthVader
20:15 Hupeng Ulusomp9431
20:11 Besoeker









Paypal:
Google
Search WWW Search rantburg.com