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2022-03-06 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Analysis of the current situation in Russia by an active FSB analyst

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Posted by badanov 2022-03-06 06:03|| || Front Page|| [8 views ] Top

#1 badanov -- Any guess as to authenticity?

Posted by Matt 2022-03-06 10:32|| 2022-03-06 10:32|| Front Page Top

#2 Occam's Razor says the simple answer is the most likely in simplified terms (the principle (attributed to William of Occam) that in explaining a thing no more assumptions should be made than are necessary), and if it seems too good to be true, it probably isn't true?

I cannot imagine an FSB analyst would be willing to post something so blatantly "defeatist" in the midst of a full-out war. Putin declared a 15 year imprisonment for fake news publications, so this simply seems F-4 at best.

Posted by NoMoreBS 2022-03-06 11:07|| 2022-03-06 11:07|| Front Page Top

#3 Retired Russian reserve FSB Colonel Igor Girkin (call sign Shooters") shot his mouth off several times about the policy mistakes of Putin back in 2014. He didn't suffer any consequences.

There's a chance that this is authentic.

Recall that Girkin claimed responsibility for the takeover of Crimea, and briefly was commander of separatist forces in Donetsk/Lugansk before the retreat from Slavyanks in August, 2014.

Posted by badanov 2022-03-06 11:20|| 2022-03-06 11:20|| Front Page Top

#4 To me this reads like the kind of thing a DC swamp creature would write in anticipation of a new administration taking office. "Weren't my fault. I get to keep my job, right?"

Posted by Matt 2022-03-06 12:16|| 2022-03-06 12:16|| Front Page Top

#5 If I had times I'd make two columns. On the left hand side, "###ups by Ukraine" and on the right side "###ups by Russia."

For the Ukraine side:

* Sticking the bulk of their army out in the border of the Donbass where it could get encircled, and more or less stuck there during the Mud Season, where it's totally irrelevant to the fulcrum points of the conflict, on the south coast, and up by Kiev. It's about as useless as the Maginot line where they are now. And all for a fantasy scenario where they'd get to Take Back The Donbass.

* A couple dozen obsolete tanks that could still move around in the environment around Kiev would be really useful right about now. A mediocre force in the right place at the right time might be better than the latest modernized tanks stuck out where it can't do anything.

* They needed a national guard type force,

For Russia:

* Starting the conflict _now_ rather than waiting another couple months was a mistake. Putin was winning without fighting to the tune of 30 billion a month. Now there's a chance that people might start waking up.

* The attacker needs to be able to concentrate his forces more than the defender does. The attack on Kiev from the North needed to be larger or it needed to not happen to begin with.

* Russia would need better trucks and tanks that kept their mobility more than invincible tanks. Rather than hoping for something that will absorb hits, they needed stuff that would actually go where the fight is.

* IMHO if they were planning on doing wars like this they should have actually spent the money on logistics and mobility rather than whatever they actually spent it on.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-03-06 13:19|| 2022-03-06 13:19|| Front Page Top

#6 A useful analysis, Snowy Thing. Thank you.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-03-06 13:24|| 2022-03-06 13:24|| Front Page Top

#7 * Starting the conflict _now_ rather than waiting another couple months was a mistake.

That is something that bugs me. The Russian planners must be familiar with their seasonal weather. Was there some behind the scenes NATO/Ukraine event that made Putin push the Go button?

Posted by SteveS 2022-03-06 17:02|| 2022-03-06 17:02|| Front Page Top

#8 Covid fail? Midterms?

/sarc, kinda

Posted by Frank G 2022-03-06 17:04|| 2022-03-06 17:04|| Front Page Top

#9 SteeS: Maybe now is when Xi ordered him to do it.

(Or maybe Xi's thinking "Now that idiot's going to get the Ents all riled up!" I dunno.)

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-03-06 22:34|| 2022-03-06 22:34|| Front Page Top

#10 You're welcome, tw. I meant to say something else but I forgot it.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-03-06 22:35|| 2022-03-06 22:35|| Front Page Top

23:59 No fortunate son
23:56 Angaiper Ulavins1210
23:55 No Fortunate Son
23:52 No Fortunate Son
23:52 trailing wife
23:48 No Fortunate Son
23:41 Angaiper Ulavins1210
23:21 No Fortunate Son
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23:04 trailing wife
23:03 No Fortunate Son
22:46 No Fortunate Son
22:44 trailing wife
22:37 No Fortunate Son
22:35 Thing From Snowy Mountain
22:34 Thing From Snowy Mountain
22:33 Anomalous Sources
22:32 Anomalous Sources
22:16 trailing wife
22:08 Besoeker
22:01 badanov
22:01 Angaiper Ulavins1210
21:59 Besoeker