Article

2022-05-03 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Ukraine says that Russia may soon announce general mobilization.

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Posted by 3dc 2022-05-03 05:18|| || Front Page|| [11 views ] Top
File under: Tin Hat Dictators, Presidents for Life,

#1 File under bogus 'Ghost of Kyiv' fighter pilot story until draftees begin showing up at induction centers.

Posted by Besoeker 2022-05-03 06:57|| 2022-05-03 06:57|| Front Page Top

#2 IIRC they never did end conscription, they sort of left it whither away when the kids refused to report for induction. The enforcement was and is on par with our control of our border in gathering up invaders.

Posted by Procopius2k 2022-05-03 07:53|| 2022-05-03 07:53|| Front Page Top

#3 We'll see how desperate Putie-pie is. A full mobilization means he is throwing everything at Ukraine. And I mean everything.

Posted by DarthVader 2022-05-03 08:49|| 2022-05-03 08:49|| Front Page Top

#4 I think the plan is to conduct the mobilization before NATO and the US. This is an existential war and the Ukraine is only an early part.

Posted by Slenter Panda4300 2022-05-03 08:51|| 2022-05-03 08:51|| Front Page Top

#5 General mobilization means that instead of 250,000 troops in the equivalent of one military district, we could see between four and eight times as many troops, tanks and aircraft in up to eight military districts being thrown at the west.

It then is prolly likely nukes will be in play.

Posted by badanov 2022-05-03 09:10|| 2022-05-03 09:10|| Front Page Top

#6 we could see between four and eight times as many

Realistically, how long would it take to get them all in place and facing in the same direction, not to mention fully equipped for the task, from a standing start? In my ignorance, it seems to me that they sent their best in the first round.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-05-03 10:10|| 2022-05-03 10:10|| Front Page Top

#7 ...it seems to me that they sent their best in the first round.

They did. A good chunk of their contract soldiers were spent in the Ukraine. A general mobilization would also include those that have left the military along with raw recruits but it would take time to get them fitted, back in shape and in a rough form for the front.

Posted by DarthVader 2022-05-03 10:15|| 2022-05-03 10:15|| Front Page Top

#8 TW - I believe roughly 10% of available RF ground forces are currently committed in the SMO. As the troops rotate probably 25% of the RF ground forces will have experience with near peer combat operations following the completion of the SMO. By contrast current NATO forces have limited experience operating in combat without enjoying air supremacy. Mobilized RF reserves without combat experience would be useful for securing lines of communication, occupation/civil affairs functions and relief of forces in static sections. That frees up more capable troops for direct action

Posted by Slenter Panda4300 2022-05-03 10:23|| 2022-05-03 10:23|| Front Page Top

#9 Russia Has Committed 75 Percent of Its Total Military to Ukraine

Posted by DarthVader 2022-05-03 10:48|| 2022-05-03 10:48|| Front Page Top

#10 Realistically, how long would it take to get them all in place and facing in the same direction, not to mention fully equipped for the task, from a standing start? In my ignorance, it seems to me that they sent their best in

In the first 30 days of WWII, the Soviets managed to mobilize and put to field 2.5 million men at arms.

Then they didn't have modern transport and communications means they have now.

Posted by badanov 2022-05-03 10:55|| 2022-05-03 10:55|| Front Page Top

#11 Realistically, how long would it take to get them all in place and facing in the same direction

May 9th.

Russian Victory Day Parade Cut By 35%, Emphasizing Ukraine’s Battlefield Prowess

Posted by Skidmark 2022-05-03 11:52|| 2022-05-03 11:52|| Front Page Top

#12 The Pope says Putin snubbed his offer to meet to discuss ending the war in Ukraine - and reveals Hungary's PM told him that Russia plan to complete the invasion by May 9

Posted by Skidmark 2022-05-03 12:38|| 2022-05-03 12:38|| Front Page Top

#13 We can expect any mobilization plan to go as smoothly has their invasion plan. Our experience with Desert Shield/Storm showed that mother nature doesn't care what your timelines are. The human body takes weeks to get in condition for combat (less just throwing bodies at the enemy to eat up their ammo). If it wasn't for the massive logistics and support structure in the services which allowed the US to literally overwhelm normal log problems, our plans wouldn't even be effective.

Posted by Procopius2k 2022-05-03 12:47|| 2022-05-03 12:47|| Front Page Top

#14 And maybe the troops will ride into battle and be supplied by all the well-maintained trucks the Russians have been hiding before now.

And the S-300 and S-400 missile systems will suddenly start working!

And they'll turn on the CIwS on their remaining cruisers.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-05-03 12:52|| 2022-05-03 12:52|| Front Page Top

#15 Darth - The RF has 170 Battalion Tactical Groups. 75% would be 127 units committed. Most estimates I’ve seen suggest it’s closer to 40 units in contact plus the logistical tail. So ballpark 25% of the available direct action elements. That is more than the 10% I mentioned earlier. Frankly I’m looking forward to reading the history of this operation in future to see what actually happened. So much propaganda on both sides …

Posted by Slenter Panda4300 2022-05-03 13:45|| 2022-05-03 13:45|| Front Page Top

#16 This reminds me of Red Storm Rising. Soviets wanted to invade Iran for the oil, but needed to bust up NATO first so they attacked Europe only to bog down and draw off their forces waiting to go into Iran.

Except the Russians don't have troops waiting to go into Iran to symphon off.

Posted by ruprecht 2022-05-03 15:35|| 2022-05-03 15:35|| Front Page Top

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