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2022-09-13 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Proposal to introduce full mobilization of male military aged civilians in Russia

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Posted by Fred 2022-09-13 00:00|| || Front Page|| [13 views ] Top
File under: Tin Hat Dictators, Presidents for Life, & Kleptocrats

#1 Just spit-balling here:

Somebody is thinking about TacNuke Options. Putie must recognize that despite the rash of energy sector "suicides" and overseas critic deaths to intimidate opponents, a full scale mobilization will just guarantee his imminent dirt nap. So, the Instant Sunshine in a Can option has to be on the table as a way to put full stop to this mess. If the dial-a-yield is kept in the low 10-15 kt range, the US is unlikely to respond, and who else can?

If they take out Zelensky and the government centers in Kyiv where all the blackmail records are kept, Biden et al might actually breathe a sigh of relief.

Posted by NoMoreBS 2022-09-13 12:35|| 2022-09-13 12:35|| Front Page Top

#2 "that predictions of swift victory were catastrophically wrong"

Those predictions were propagated by Western Think Tanks and repeated by #fakenews allies and social media influencers.

Posted by mossomo 2022-09-13 12:58|| 2022-09-13 12:58|| Front Page Top

#3 The Tactical Nuke Option is another narrative originating with Western Think Tanks, western media, and social media influencers.

I dont see any credible discussion of using tactical nukes in russian media, outside the scenario of a full scale nato blitzkrieg invasion.

Posted by mossomo 2022-09-13 13:04|| 2022-09-13 13:04|| Front Page Top

#4 Actually mossomo, that was my own intuitive sense of what must be going on inside the Kremlin. Last time I checked, I'm not in a think-tank or even a drop tank. Just spent a long career watching and reading what Russians said and did, and how they reason when sober.

Posted by NoMoreBS 2022-09-13 14:01|| 2022-09-13 14:01|| Front Page Top

#5 Those predictions were propagated by Western Think Tanks and repeated by #fakenews allies and social media influencers.

Which is why Russia made a straight dash for Kiev, their partner in Belarus leaked a map showing a planned follow-up into Moldova, the Russians took no communication gear, and quite clearly did not plan for a prolonged fight.

Posted by Lemuel Sputch2125 2022-09-13 18:27|| 2022-09-13 18:27|| Front Page Top

#6 10KT tac nuke? But where? Someplace symbolic, strategic in value, military, but not so densely populated area, and ideally some place they need to trash that they haven't been able to, or don't need to, occupy. And someplace where the fallout washing into Russia as well as most of western Europe will be limited.

Here's your answer: Port facilities in Odessa.

5KT, Airburst over the water at the port of Odessa. Oil and gas terminals are the furtherest south, grain terminals are in the north part. Strike just out past the breakwaters of the south terminals at 46.492516, 30.761169. Per Nukemap, a 5KT hit there will bust up the infrastructure of container cargo and POL, but do not much worse than break a few windows in downtown Odessa, and woul leave the grain exporrt terminals untouched for the most part. Fallout, if there is any (Airburst!) would go out over the bay then toward Mikolayev, but not much further than that. Tiime it for 3 AM, when not so many people are working, and the deaths would be less than 300, wounded less than 3000.

So if you are Putin, ya dont kill so many people, you leave the grain exports intact, but cripple the Ukraine's POL and cargo imports, whihc chops the legs off any offensive plans the Ukr army has unless they start bringing everything over the western rail lines.

Plus it scares the shit out of everyone and might provide a "let us negotiate before the maniac escalates" response from Foggy Bottom to force the Ukraine into an immediate cease-fire in-place, which would then become the de facto border, except perhaps in Kherson.

Well, there it is.

Posted by Chealing Chomotle4158 2022-09-13 22:33|| 2022-09-13 22:33|| Front Page Top

#7 Effect distances for a 5 kiloton airburst at 500m altitude:

Fireball radius: 120 m (0.04 km²)

Maximum size of the nuclear fireball; relevance to damage on the ground depends on the height of detonation. If it touches the ground, the amount of radioactive fallout is significantly increased. Anything inside the fireball is effectively vaporized. Minimum burst height for negligible fallout: 100 m. (i.e. negligible fallout)

Radiation radius (500 rem): 0.97 km (2.97 km²)
500 rem ionizing radiation dose; likely fatal, in about 1 month; 15% of survivors will eventually die of cancer as a result of exposure.

Examining the terrain, most of this area is either water, port structures, or storage areas. No living quarters.

Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 1.11 km (3.84 km²)

Third degree burns extend throughout the layers of skin, and are often painless because they destroy the pain nerves. They can cause severe scarring or disablement, and can require amputation. 100% probability for 3rd degree burns at this yield is 8 cal/cm2.

Examining the terrain, most of this area is either water, port structures, or storage areas. No living quarters.

Moderate blast damage radius (5 psi): 1.2 km (4.54 km²)

At 5 psi overpressure, most residential buildings collapse, injuries are universal, fatalities are widespread. The chances of a fire starting in commercial and residential damage are high, and buildings so damaged are at high risk of spreading fire. Often used as a benchmark for moderate damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 0.53 km.

Examining the map, this basically destroys or damages all the souther port infrastructure,

Light blast damage radius (1 psi): 3.38 km (35.9 km²)

At around 1 psi overpressure, glass windows can be expected to break. This can cause many injuries in a surrounding population who comes to a window after seeing the flash of a nuclear explosion (which travels faster than the pressure wave). Often used as a benchmark for light damage in cities. Optimal height of burst to maximize this effect is 0.8 km.

Looking at Google Maps, this covers the city center to about halfway inland, breaking windows at the main hospital and the parks, perhaps, but not much further than the McDonalds at the train station.

Nukemap link with settings:

https://nukemap.org/nukemap/?&kt=5&lat=46.4929267&lng=30.76159&hob_psi=5&hob_ft=1752&casualties=1&fallout=1&psi=20,5,1&zm=13

Posted by Chealing Chomotle4158 2022-09-13 22:48|| 2022-09-13 22:48|| Front Page Top

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